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Bonds Bonds Bonds!
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Bonds Bonds Bonds!

by The MoleAugust 4, 2015

Excellent bond setups are on the roster today and I’m posting this early so that you guys have a chance to get a seat on the bus. Equities are also in a pretty juicy formation so I guess it’s going to be a busy morning:

2015-08-04_spoos_briefing

The spoos are looking tired as heck which is why I’m currently long with a stop below the recent spike low. IF we bust through that one then I think we’re going all the way to the lower daily BB. Also note that the hourly BBs are tightening and most likely we are going to see even more volatility here soon. Heck… hell of a summer!

2015-08-04_NQ_briefing

The NQ painting the same pattern – also long here and I have split my 1R exposure between both. Same implications – below 4540 we are in bear territory. Gravity could kick in quickly here – be prepared.

2015-08-04_corn_briefing

Corn – awesome setup as those hourly BBs are squeezed to the max. BIG move coming. Which way I don’t know but I’m currently long until I’m not, which will be below 364.6.

2015-08-04_ZF_briefing

Okay I promised bonds and El Topo delivers. Five year bond futures are challenging old daily resistance and I’m long here with a stop below a recent daily NLBL. Very few people are going to be long here after the recent push higher, which is why I like it even more.

However I’m keeping my favorite bond setup (and a LOT more) for my intrepid subs:

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A lot of juicy symbols today. One may even say that we have a plethora of setups!

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Everyone still sleeping? Get to work you lazy buggers!

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I’m on it, boss.

  • BobbyLow

    I be here. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Awesome.

  • Grant

    Sleep? What’s that?

  • Ronebadger

    Sorry, I was sleeping…..uhhh, SLEEPING? ohhh, sleeping is for closers…

  • BobbyLow

    Hey Edd,

    I’m extremely late to join this trend but I picked up a small position in ERY at the COB yesterday at $27.58. The IXE Daily closed at 680.97 and has been short since 5/7 at 807.39 on the Daily (according to my lens and like I said I’m real late to the dance). I expect this trade to be a loss and will “embrace the pain” but at least I’m back in sync.

    OTOH, as Jesse said, “Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.” 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Quick message to thank you all. I can be slow but all of your messages/ideas/advice/ criticism are all spot on and got my rusty wheels turning further. I still have deeply ingrained issues like bias (among other things) toward metals/oil or things I perceive as having real value. Ideas like averaging in as things become cheaper etc. I think of oil or metals as buying my sweaters on sale after Christmas but investing is not buying sweaters. Anyway, I basically commend you all as the purest most unified disciplined hardcore group anywhere on the net. I will be laying low/re-evaluating my goals, reasons for reading/reasons for participating. Thanks to all, EVEN Scott, who is clearly wasting his time here and could be a great writer of romance novels.

  • BobbyLow

    Took a 1R loss earlier this AM on an attempted scalp on 10 Minute Chart of GBP/JPY. I didn’t take any scalps yesterday so I was a little too anxious to take one today. I ignored previous large candles in both directions which is usually a sign of danger and I paid the price.

  • randomuser6789

    BKX, your humble attitude serves you very well.
    And I would pay money to read any romance novel written by Scott!

  • Edd

    Hey Bobby, as u know I am running 5-10min system at same time as my daily system. With this steady runup I have been basically scalping the daily bars. Taking off at BB tops and adding back when I get a signal to reenter an ERY long on the shorter time frames. Today has been a great example of what I mean. I sold ERY daily system at close yesterday at 27.48 Today Bought ERY for scalp at 27.10 at 10:10 and also for daily hold. Sold scalp at 10:35 at 27.55. Re entered scalp at10:45 at 27.35 stop at 27.51. Stop on daily system trailing now at 27.01 I will sell this again at the close if we have similar price action to yesterday. This is NOT my system rules but I have adapted to what the market has been giving us recently.

  • BobbyLow

    BKX I’m glad you are here today.

    I believe that the main reason why most of us have been so adamant is because we have done the same thing you are doing. I wish I had people on my ass for the first 10 years in this business. What I did instead was try to find people that thought exactly the way that I did. When you spoke about averaging down losing positions yesterday it brought back some very bad memories. I’m going to share 2 of those very bad memories right now. These go back a few years so I’m not going to have the exact numbers but they will be close.

    In 1998 and 1999, I didn’t have a clue to what I was doing but I bought Tech and made a shit load of money. After making this money on individual stocks (mostly from EMC), I began trading a lot of the Q’s. The Q’s hit the 100’s in 1999. After the Tech Bubble burst, and the Q’s hit around $60, I thought this had to be a good buy so I bought some. Then as it continued to fall I bought more at $50, $40, and finally bought my last batch at $32. Then over the next couple of years I watched it fall all the way down to the low $20. Carrying what had turned into a massive position and watching it fall over many months takes a serious mental toll. Finally sometime in 2003 it got back into the $30’s and I couldn’t stand it anymore and got out for a very large loss.

    Now, one would think that I would have learned my lesson. You speak of oil. I can’t remember the exact dates but in the mid 2000’s Goldman Sachs called for $200 per barrell oil. Price never hit $200 but it did hit $140. So oil finally began to drop and fell to $90. Wow that had to be a great buy right? So I began buying at $90, then $80, and I bought my last batch at $70. Hell, that was half price right? Well Oil went all the way down to $35. And after a period of many months the same shit happened as did with the Q’s and when it got back up to about $70, I had to get out when the getting was good for another very large loss.

    So you do what you got to do. Unfortunately for me, I had to learn some very expensive lessons from my own mistakes. You don’t have to do that but you can if you want to. 🙂

  • mugabe

    I think it’s out next month!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks Much! Relax though, this isn’t some sorry ass crying crap from me, it is just me seeing the light of day. I am not quitting just regrouping. I have a house that needs work prior to winter, a 3 year old girl who wants my time and “trading”/investing as Scott points out is serious business and you have to put in the time and the work plain and simple. You guys have all been very clear and it all makes perfect sense. I don’t have the time and there are no excuses to make moves when ill prepared whether active trading or what I thought I called investing. I am good! I am very good. I will be here reading for sure but turning this all down a few notches in my life for a while. Thanks for your stories which I also have done. Great group of guys here. Will be reading for sure.

  • HeadNShoulder

    Zero saved my life again, thanks Boss.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, it’s titled 50 Shades Of Blood.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, the participation here is at an all time low. Do I have to put up some neon lights or what? Anyway, Zero is at a complete flatline.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I’ll chime in, but please, read what BobbyLow wrote below first. I also had similar experiences, as most people imo. the only choice is to either call this shit a scam, burn your books and walk away, or…

    1. Hold on to your bias ” toward metals/oil or things I perceive as having real value”. Why not, really. There is no more wrong with that, than with thinking that GOOGL will change the world, or that TWTR / FB is a proverbial ‘third eye’ and future of humanity. You just need a place to start – its as good as any.

    2. Throw away every piece of knowledge you accumulated about financial markets. Especially including ‘on sale’ part. Everything you ever heard or read is a complete dis-information and illusion made to keep people ‘in’. Its perpetuated by money-managers and WallStreet scamers in order to keep new money flow into markets and near-market activities. In reality – almost nobody makes profit and nobody ever keeps it either over long period of time. Not with any published methods anyway… that is WHY they are published.

    3. OTOH, there is a small group of people worldwide (maybe not more than 10000), who make consistent living of financial speculation (also in gambling like poker, BJ, horse-racing etc). These people don’t make 8% a year compounded, nor they live on 2 and 20 management fees, but they make 500-1000% year on relatively small amount of money. You will never hear how or who, because they smart and stay under radar (otherwise their name will be is Sarao, Amaranth and LTCM – their and some others like them official story is complete bullshit, but you will have to do your own research and your own thinking)

    You came to a fork in a road.
    When you open a chart of your favorite ‘real value’ thing – WHAT DO YOU SEE?

  • Edd

    BKX, applaud your response yet I still stand by what I said to you. Bobby and others are correct. You get comments because everyone knows how hard it can be to become a winner at this game. We see you doing everything we all have done. I urged you to simply build a simple system. Well as a test I just did in a matter of 20 minutes. I said to heck with building a losing position in oil. Buy and sell UCO and SCO on a daily basis. Starting at 1-1-15 I bought every close above the Bollinger Band midpoint. Sold every close at the BB top or stayed with it as it rode the BB higher. Rebought every price drop back to the BB midpoint if the next close looked like a continuation long. If price closed below the midpoint I bought the opposite vehicle. Wash, rinse, repeat. No optimizing, no compounding,no detailed rules, nothing other than what I just described. 13wins, 6 losses, several scratches. 10,000 turned into 15,000. Time required to put this together – 20 minutes. Time to trade it 5 minutes twice per day at 9:30est and 4:00est. You spend more time than this reading and writing. Give me an additional hour and I can go back and start to do some more work on my “system”. I promise you I will be able to double my expected profit by just one simple change. My point to you is if I can do this anyone can. I will say it again you have no excuse not to do this. You have the skillset if you choose to use it

  • saltwaterdog

    BKX – all I see here is a simple event where you posted an investment idea to a trading blog. Then the traders smothered you in axioms that come from successful trading. This isn’t a buy and hold, long-term investment blog, clearly. My two cents, there isn’t nearly as much wrong with your entry on Crude as the feedback you received suggested.

    Not all trading rules apply to investing. That said, of the things that do canvas both, having a written down plan, in advance, is paramount. Some of the most wealthy investors on the planet earn a living by buying $50mm of XYZ, and if it drops x%, adding more shares to “top up” to the original exposure.

    The hard part in that (meaning investing) game, and the part even the pros often skip, is defining when you are wrong as part of your (pre-existing) plan. “When do you sell” is a much more difficult task when wrapped in the comfort of a long-term point of view.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Most people fail because they over think the whole thing.

    1. Figure out a simple edge – any edge – and build a system around it.
    2. Place trades via that system religiously.
    3. Rinse, lather, repeat.
    4. Profit.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I will start work on a “system” and will not speak of any trades/moves until I get one.
    I expect it will take me many months in what spare time I have. There are posts here on how to start one. I have had ideas about using moving averages, Bollinger band levels, maybe check boxes with assigned weights to other observations such as PnF targets being positively aligned. Moles use of “Net” lines seems to work well for him but I’ve never applied myself to it as it didn’t jump right out at me. I will be thinking.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Couldn’t agree more.

    But its very hard to do and completely against everything we learned in traditional schooling. Plus that damned human nature thing…

  • ridingwaves

    his first prison themed romance title
    whoa, you can’t call me your bitch? a couple chapters with bruce lee fighting scenes sprinkled into Orange is the new black theme…

  • Billabong

    It’s a quiet day on the Avon. Closed one position for 0.10R before it went south. And now waiting and watching.

  • ridingwaves
  • Edd

    Exited ERY scalp at 27.72. daily system stop at 27.56, still plan exit at close if stop holds.

  • BKXtoZERO

    wow. thanks. That does sound easier than what I have been imagining. “Back testing” also sounded beyond my skill set. I’ve seen discussions where some say looking at a long term chart is close enough and others say that every data point needs to be crunched.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Sorry, boss. I don’t feel like I have much to add to either the PhD level discourse or the Addicted Traders Anonymous talk today. I hate to sully the waters by throwing in too many comments from the peanut gallery. Having said that, I’m just watching and waiting, as it seems like we are getting closer and closer to some sort of resolution in direction for equities.

  • Billabong

    @ridingwaves … I’m seeing a buy signal on biotech ETFs. Are they running them again?

  • Edd

    Welcome, and all the best in your journeys.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    LOL

    “Addicted Traders Anonymous”
    I am going to steal this

  • OzarkHillBilly

    A Netflix original.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I think I already stole it from Scott, more or less.

  • ridingwaves

    I have a runner right now that I bought a lot of at 1.40, shorts are in trouble with jump of 100sma…

  • BobbyLow

    Nice!

    Mine is designed for a longer term swing so I’m working off the IXE Daily exclusively with transactions made at the COB. My stop based on IXE as of the current print (which hasn’t closed yet) would be 703.62 which should translate to somewhere around 25.22. I know this is a very wide stop in comparison. But OTOH, by using this format, I should have still been long ERY since 5/7 at 17.67 on the daily so if I get stopped at 25.22, it would have been a decent $ gain dependent upon the number of shares based on R.

    We have different approaches going on IXE and that’s cool. What’s kind of funny is that I took some of your 10 Minute Approach and am using it in FOREX and sticking with longer term wider stop swings on IXE.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    How’s ZL looking now?

  • BobbyLow

    Find out what criteria you are most comfortable using, BB’s, Moving Averages, ATR, etc. Once you do this, Back Testing is the easy part. There is no pressure, and you can take all the time you want to make a decision. I do all my back testing with pencil and paper. Back Test as far back as possible. This way you would have a back test that has gone through different types of markets. The question that will have to be answered is whether or not you have an edge or not. You will notice in your back test that there will be times of “easy trading” and times of “hard trading”. This is part of the practice (summer camp) before you forward test then intense practice (pre season) before you play in a real game.

    The NFL began training camp this week. These guys have played football (American) from Pop Warner, High School, College and the Pros. Yet they still spend a tremendous amount of time practicing. Scott has used this analogy many times in that we (myself included) jump into a profession thinking that because we think we are smart that we can do this stuff. Then we find out that smart by itself isn’t enough. 🙂

  • mugabe

    really? was sure it was called ‘backward and forward testing’. must be wrong …

  • BKXtoZERO

    If I had a dollar every time you say “where is everyone” or “why is participation low” I would be rich. If nothing else I am great for discourse LOL. If you want I will post one fruit fly type post per day to get you all going.

  • Edd

    ERY – Got complacent and ignored/missed entry at 1:10 that resulted in a 5r move. I will record this as a mistake trade. Would not have missed in back testing. This type of “mistake” really hurts profitability. Hard to keep up the attention in front of monitors in the lessor timeframes for the elderly!

  • BobbyLow

    Aint that the truth. lol

    This is why I chose to use my 10 Minute Scalp System with Forex (Exclusively with the GBP/JPY) which usually is a mover and a shaker and I take the slow road with Crude and IXE. That’s 3 things, 1 fast and 2 slow. That’s all I want to handle.

    There’s a reason why guys our age don’t fly F16’s. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    OR just steal an existing system. Trend systems like the Turtle system have worked for decades. Not for everyone but take a look and perhaps do some manual back testing. The Net-Lines approach is definitely worth considering – I built a system around it already.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why don’t you subscribe and then take a look? :-/

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “how hard it can be to become a winner at this game.”

    It’s easy – just stop doing what the losers do.

  • Billabong

    Can anyone explain what happens at 2 pm EST? Does something close or is it the start of the closing session for commodities and bonds. There seems to be a lot of sharp moves that happen shortly after 2 pm.

  • ridingwaves

    that is when the wine and cheese is served….

  • Edd

    F-16 LOL, I`m simply trying to avoid a walker!

  • Billabong

    Thanks … I thought it was something more complex and not quite that simple. 🙂

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Fair enough. I might just have to. Was curious what it does on crazy zigzag days like this.

  • Billabong

    The long DX, short bonds was interesting today.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Human interest story for you all…. None of you know this but I have what is called “Empty Nose Syndrome”. It is a surgically caused condition. Some Hack ENT doctor took out way too much tissue years ago and it caused a great deal of suffering on various levels. Anyway, long story short, I work in engineering. I saw all of these Computational Fluid Dynamics studies out there regarding velocity/pressure/ flow through the nose etc. I figured out how to build my own solid model, then how to use CFD software and did my own study based on my CT scans over the years. I then started working with a doctor at Stanford who slowly but surely adopted my analysis work. I modeled my own implants. I pushed for certain things that basically worked. After 2 surgeries and another revision, I partially solved ENS and achieved what no other studies had ever done. Anyway, I only share to serve as a point that I like a challenge at work or personal and have a history of doing well on everything. Trading is not like anything else, like I have read here and many a smart person has failed, as pointed out, often times the smarter the worse off. Anyway, here is a link to my CFD work that Stanford will be publishing. Notice same photo as BKX to zero. Anyway, no gamblers anonymous….. just love a challenge. http://guest.fr.yuku.com/topic/5696/New-Lateral-Wall-Implants-overview-of-results#.VcEWCifn_ct

  • ridingwaves

    was just being snarky, might have something to do with London fix close…

  • BobbyLow

    I read about some of the symptoms of this condition and it sounds pretty scary. It’s great that you have the ability to work on this condition yourself.

  • mugabe

    i know it’s not the be all and end all, but with your engineering and presumably programming background, you’ve got a great set of tools at your disposal to investigate systems / backtest

  • mugabe

    yeah, sounds more likely .. getting their fix. good inside info

  • BKXtoZERO

    It’s certainly unusual and a real success story….. first in the world of patient directing his own care. I just slept 5 straight hours for the first time since 1996. Anyway, no pity desired, just showing dedication/motivation.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks. Not a programming person. I learned to use software. Anyway, I can do this stuff but have just had too much on my plate. I will take a well deserved break from modeling and start slowly applying myself to a system of some kind. I can do mid level excel, that’s about it but thanks!

  • bullethead

    Check out Gabriel Gramitidis, it might resonate with you. Mole thought it was too subjective. For me, it works. I believe Scott applied his systems at some point and still may (?)

  • Scott Phillips

    I suggest you start from first principles, rather than think about what sort of indicators you like. Those things are really just visual aids to system building, they don’t have an edge by themselves really (it’s just an illusion)

    So by first principles, I mean you should start thinking about what sort of setup you want to catch.

    – Trend trade breakout
    – Trend trade pullback (like thor)
    – Volatility breakout (like gabriel’s systems, like scalpius, like bollinger squeezes)
    – Range trade systems
    – Seasonality based systems

    After that you start adding things in to closely define your setup.

  • Scott Phillips

    Gabriel is a superb trader, and a very nice guy, a good teacher also.

    His systems have a high degree of discretion, which made them a poor fit for Mole emotionally. Thor is in essence an objective adaptation of Gabriels 5 min system taken to daily charts.

    He was exceedingly pissed off that we used a version of his exit algo for Thor, and that we reverse engineered the principles upon which it was based. He demanded (foolishly in my opinion) that we change it, and we had a falling out over it.

  • Scott Phillips

    Backtesting is best done in my opinion with a pencil and paper and calculator. Mole disagrees, for valid reasons.

    I maintain that you get an intimate view of the data by paper trading it for backtesting that you cannot get from a computer summary.

    The counter argument (also correct) is that you get a lot more done quicker and more accurately with a computer backtest

  • Scott Phillips

    Tiger Woods still spends more time practicing than most professionals. That is what winning athletes do.

  • Scott Phillips

    If you don’t have the time or the inclination to do things right, thats great! You should, logically, find a superior trader to do your trading for you.

  • ridingwaves

    Code- the great equalizer….

  • Scott Phillips

    Buy and hold is predicated on a very base assumption, which historically has been proven correct, that in the long run things keep going up.

    If you were to make a movie of the 20th century, the title would be “the triumph of the optimists”

    Facing enormous problems, near certain nuclear war, famine, plague, mass slaughter, environmental tragedy… at every point the optimists have prevailed through new technology and human innovation.

    We are, at a DNA level, preselected for this risk taking innovation gene. It resonates at a deep level with most of us.

    The real question is “are you willing to bet the farm on this assumption?”

    If so, buy and hold is perfectly fine

  • Scott Phillips

    Well I paid 10K to learn his exit algo, I thought it was disingenous to mention later on that he thought it was implicitly understood that I wouldn’t be able to use it in my own work 😉

  • OzarkHillBilly

    That’s too bad. Reminds me a bit about the extra paperwork you have to sign with some new cars today, regarding their software and essentially what you aren’t allowed to do with it. If you bought it, it’s yours. IMO.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I probably watched Road Warrior way too many times during my formative years, which may explain why I missed some great bull moves in the past. OTOH, I was extra motivated to drive really fast, really well.

  • ridingwaves

    a piece of code is so amiable that all the effort spent in court to protect it will eat into any profits from the promising code, sometime later you may win but its now like a non response website with perl code..

  • captainboom

    I was working with a fellow motorcycle safety coach this past weekend, and he had done some road racing in his past. One of the things he was mentored on was to sit in a chair in his living room with a stopwatch. Close his eyes, and visualize racing the whole track. Braking points, acceleration points, the whole thing. Start the stopwatch when he started, and stop it when he got to the finish line. He said that after a while, his living room lap time was within 0.1 second of his actual lap time, and his racing got better.

    I thought of Evil Speculator and it’s minions immediately. This is the kind of dedication it takes.

  • mugabe

    v good point. also, buy and hold where? in japan it hasn’t worked out too well, or in spain (still almost a third below the high in 2007).
    also, buy and hold is psychologicaly v difficult at certain times.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    ‘Creative visualisation’ (or otherwise) has been used for centuries … but at school it is knocked out of us … ‘hey George, stop daydreaming’ … this technique is one of the many little aids that I coach students with throughout during their tutelage.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    As long as their risk tolerances and frequency of decision-making fits with yours … else a mis-fit … and the ending will probably not be to your liking.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M’gabe – the final outcome does depend on what one does with the inevitable ‘dead cat bounce’ in between.

    A study of history shows that there are many such events … some of which a rally of 100% from a low.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Edd – 1 missed 5R win ought not to be a deal-breaker with any robust and valid RBT … shOneT happens … and yes it may ‘hurt’.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Mole – karma is simply an illusion perhaps ?

  • hellbent

    CFD stuff is fantastic. Because you mention it I just had a thought. CFD gives you the belief that you can model real world systems and predict how they will behave in the future. Thanks to computers and all the hard working clever clogs we actually can and it works really well.

    I’ve done some CFD and systems modelling stuff myself and found when I started looking at markets I wanted to find a way to tap into how they work and by taking measurements, using indicators, develop an edge with which to be profitable.

    Thing is, the market and trading doesn’t seem work like that. The name of the game is simply to lose a bit less than you win. In other words we build a system, set of methods, or rules, that focus on the actions we take in response to the market rather than trying to predict the future. That was my thought anyway…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sounds like a plan 😉

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Bet the farmlet is the real go … then the loss does not hurt … as much.

  • mugabe

    the thing I don’t like about buy and hold is that there is no risk management. buying and selling indices depending on the monthly close of the 10 month ma has been shown to be roughly as profitable as buy and hold over the long haul with none of the all-in risk and much less volatility.
    edit: that’s why the sharpe ratio of spy, for example, is not very good (much less than 1)

  • mugabe

    If something is in the public domain, as the net lines was, you can hardly call it stealing

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M’gabe – open question?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M’gabe – Merrill Lynch did a great piece on the best MA for a bunch of commodities spanning 10 years in the late 70’s … early PC days … and for the ensuing 10 years they all failed to produce a ‘positive edge’ … translation … they all lost money … that is certainly not what I am suggesting.

  • mugabe

    that’s interesting. I was thinking about the type of work done by meb faber (the ivy portfolio).

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M’gabe – when dealing with indexes of any nature, especially ones that have a barrier to entry such as stock indexes … they do not represent reality … as ‘unhealthy’ ones are replaced by ‘healthy’ ones … and hence the index is always rising … courtesy of the devaluation of buying power … a trap for young and old.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If it’s offered in a public forum or even commercially it’s fair game. I separate pretty clearly between what I give away for free here (and have for years) and the stuff I don’t want to be shared. Some of my proprietary stuff I have shared with a few select individuals but before handing over have requested confidentiality. So it’s a clear line in the sand for me personally.

  • mugabe

    nunca mejor dicho viviendo en la playa:)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Quote of the Day – Profits = RBT + Mastery of Self.

  • Skynard

    Best that 4hr /DX looks to be a stop run above 98.25.

  • Billabong

    Pre-mkt stronger $$$ … DX moving up towards 16 Mar high @ 100.72. Monthly shows $$$ strengthening since 14 Jul 14. That is one long trend in today’s mkt environment.

  • Billabong

    Ha! We’re looking at the same thing … different time scale.

  • Billabong

    Reviewing the monthly chart really shows the impact of a strengthening $$$ … commodities, currencies, deflation, etc… Canadian $ (6C) @ 75 Cents. Can even go to Turkey with a 30% discount from last November.

  • Skynard

    Stiff res here, still viewing a selloff. Many other currencies base building for a big move.

  • Edd

    Thanks Ivan and yes you are correct in my system it is not a deal breaker. That said I still find it to be unacceptable on a personal level. My system averages 2.6 trades per day. Missing just one and allowing an attitude of stuff happens becomes infectious. I have to contend with all of the other mistakes causing lower performance. Missing a trade right in front of me is more maddening than a loss from a trade done right.

  • hellbent

    Your not an Australian Billabong then. Mexican?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    (()/( (()/( ( (()/( )()) )))( ( ) ` ) /(
    /(_)) /(_))) /(_))((_) ((_)() ) ((((_)( ( )(_))
    (_))_|(_)) ((_) (_)) _((_) (_()((_)((_) ) _ ) (_(_())
    | |_ | _ | __|/ __| | || | | / || __|(_)_(_)|_ _|
    | __| | /| _| __ | __ | | |/| || _| / _ | |
    |_| |_|_|___||___/ |_||_| |_| |_||___|/_/ _ |_|

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Edd – to a very large part, whilst a reaction may be automatic, at least initially, down the track the length or amount of flagellation is a personal (discipline) choice … after all we are human.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yes, CFD simulation only works regarding matters of physics. Mole already has the best way to analyze markets. None better.

  • Billabong

    Si …mucho gracious for the observation. I’m a global citizen … one of the spirits sent here to learn and wander. I spent different times in Australia. My uncle and cousins live there. My uncle was a great wheeler dealer in Australia. He always saw a business opportunity around every corner. And I had an opportunity to mentor under one of the best.

  • Edd

    Ha, so true. I was a contractor for 40 years. The ups and downs, weather, mistakes, et al, the multitude of things out side of our control were daunting. You learned you had better do a fantastic job at the things you could control. This has stood me well in trading. No flagellation here, just a lifetime of rigorous attention to disciplined focus on performance. Thanks always for your insight and pearls of wisdom.

  • SirDagonet

    That sounds odd… Tharp’s advertising of Gabriel’s seminars used to say something to the effect of his methods probably would lend themselves to automation if someone were inclined to program them…