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February 5, 2018

The Bear Is Out For Blood

It’s going to be a bare bone post for me today as I’ve worked through the weekend (again) and am feeling the pinch a little. But things are transpiring swiftly across the board, so let’s proceed directly to the meat counter. Speaking of which, the bear is awake, and having hibernated several seasons he’s out for blood. So unless you run faster than 35mph you are officially breakfast and lunch. Now if you’re hailing from W. Virginia or MississippiĀ then you’re breakfast, lunch, and dinner šŸ˜‰

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February 2, 2018

Blood In The Streets

Time is of essence so if you don’t mind I will dispense with the courtesies and get right to the point. After follow up panic selling early in the morning Bitcoin just dipped below the $8k mark. Which means capitulation has either taken place or we are getting pretty close. We may be a tad to early here but the hourly is offering us a spike low and I just grabbed some BTC/USD with a stop < 7,900.


This is an early lottery ticket in anticipation of a snapback as we yet have insufficient data and a medium term low many not yet in place. So place your bets accordingly which means small position sizing. If you don’t have a crypto account you can play [...]

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January 22, 2018

Upside Down VIX World

In last week’s ‘Tickling The Dragon’s Tail‘ I mused about the possibility of a VIX Buy Signal on the horizon. Which was followed by a sideways session in the S&P 500 with the VIX actually dropping lower. At the same time the VIX:VXV ratio pulled > its upper second standard deviation and all that means that the fun and games are just about to begin this week. Confused? I don’t blame you but as usual the ole’ Mole’s got you covered:

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January 18, 2018

It’s Wabbit Season

I’ve been literally in stitches over the past few days marveling over the Shakespearean drama unraveling behind the curtains of the crypto universe. And I’m not even talking about the big sell off which now seems to be reversing. Apparently BitConnect is shutting down exchange operations and a bunch of people found themselves unable to convert their tokens to bitcoin or any other crypto currency. Seems to me a bunch of unhappy folks just learned the difference between (imagined) paper profits and real profits.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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