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November 21, 2018

Talking Junk

With everyone squarely focused on equities I decided to lift the market’s skirt to get a better look at what’s happening ‘behind the scenes’, and mainly in the junk bond arena. Not a sector many people are in the habit of tracking but it is in government and corporate bonds where you usually see early rumblings of market upheaval that eventually makes its way into the stock market.

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February 5, 2018

The Bear Is Out For Blood

It’s going to be a bare bone post for me today as I’ve worked through the weekend (again) and am feeling the pinch a little. But things are transpiring swiftly across the board, so let’s proceed directly to the meat counter. Speaking of which, the bear is awake, and having hibernated several seasons he’s out for blood. So unless you run faster than 35mph you are officially breakfast and lunch. Now if you’re hailing from W. Virginia or MississippiĀ then you’re breakfast, lunch, and dinner šŸ˜‰

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February 2, 2018

Blood In The Streets

Time is of essence so if you don’t mind I will dispense with the courtesies and get right to the point. After follow up panic selling early in the morning Bitcoin just dipped below the $8k mark. Which means capitulation has either taken place or we are getting pretty close. We may be a tad to early here but the hourly is offering us a spike low and I just grabbed some BTC/USD with a stop < 7,900.

Caveat

This is an early lottery ticket in anticipation of a snapback as we yet have insufficient data and a medium term low many not yet in place. So place your bets accordingly which means small position sizing. If you don’t have a crypto account you can play [...]

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January 22, 2018

Upside Down VIX World

In last week’s ‘Tickling The Dragon’s Tail‘ I mused about the possibility of a VIX Buy Signal on the horizon. Which was followed by a sideways session in the S&P 500 with the VIX actually dropping lower. At the same time the VIX:VXV ratio pulled > its upper second standard deviation and all that means that the fun and games are just about to begin this week. Confused? I don’t blame you but as usual the ole’ Mole’s got you covered:

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NEW! Market Statistics
Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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