E-Mini Swing Trading
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December 7, 2015

Short Term Entry Opportunity

I hope you guys are rested and ready to rock & roll as we’ve got an unfolding and time critical entry opportunity on the E-Mini. I’m going in with a very small position size as whipsaw risk is real and we’re not benefitting from a lot of context right now:

The range here is pretty narrow and I’m grabbing a handful of longs with a stop below 2078. Note that we’ve got overhead resistance developing again on the daily panel. So there is a good chance we’re going to screw around here for a while longer and shake out premature Santa Rally participants. I give long resolution a 40% probability here at best this week after all that [...]

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September 28, 2015

Crazy Monday

I’ve got a laundry list of technical issues to deal with this morning, so please forgive the brevity of today’s update. As the tape is still running in circles chasing its own tail courtesy of some of hare-brained Fed rumors there unfortunately remains very little to work with:

GBP/CHF may be a long if it drops a bit more – 1.48 would be best. Under normal circumstances I would have risked a small entry here but I just see too much whipsaw and my entries now need to be nearly perfect to be justify the whipsaw risk.

AUD/NZD – also waiting for a little drop lower here. I do like the daily formation still however it did not break [...]

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September 25, 2015

Let’s Call It A Week

I just parsed through my universe of charts and what hasn’t blasted off already is running in circles. Not the type of tape I would want to touch with a ten foot pole. On the equities side there is really nothing to add that hasn’t been said already. My small short was taken out at break/even and I’m staying out of this turd of a tape until we see some real context. Remember my Epiphany post – that general assessment stands now more than ever.

Two GBP setups before I call it a week. GBP/CHF seems like a good long here but I’m only playing 1/4R with a stop half a mile away. On the daily we have been testing the 100-day SMA and thus far [...]

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August 26, 2015

Sky Diving Elvis’

I’m going to dip my toe into a few symbols today again – however let’s re-emphasize again that small position sizing clearly should be our modus operandi for the foreseeable future. It is important that you understand that a practice of small position sizing (e.g. < 0.5% per campaign) and wider stops does not hamper our ability to profit but instead leverages this high volatility market phase in our favor. To place large bets during this period is tantamount to gambling, and if that’s what you’re after then I suggest you head for Vegas or Reno.

At least there you get to enjoy low priced hotel rooms, pool side entertainment, a sky diving [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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