Circle Of Confusion

My lottery long position got stopped out this morning and before deciding my next course of action, or perhaps lack thereof, I thought it best to consult my momo charts, in an attempt to gain a clearer perspective devoid of the daily noise. Unfortunately however this effectively has accomplished the exact opposite as I walked away even more conflicted than before.

Now, let’s remember that increasing noise, confusion, and conflicting technical evidence often serve as the harbinger of large outlier moves. Which at the stage we are, is rather worrisome. Let’s review:

First of all, according to our original plan, the VIX continued to drop yesterday after triggering a bonafide VIX Buy Signal. So far so good and the current drop could easily be interpreted as….

This never gets old. Anyway, and then there’s this:

Behold my new IVTS chart which focuses primarily on medium term BTFD opportunities. The odds seem to be on the side of the bulls if 1) the IVTS has pushed > 0.9 and 2) the upper Bollinger is breached from above and continues to drop for a session or two. So far so good and Admiral Ackbar may be right. However…

Here’s the SKEW:VIX ratio which quite frankly still looks bearish as heck. But it could be worse, and it did…

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