Crude Awakening

And you probably caught my double meaning here. If you’ve been coming here for more than a few weeks then you probably agree that I have proven myself to be fairly resilient when it comes to dealing with difficult tape. And we’ve made pretty good calls lately – no complaints. However the last week really take the cake on the grand whipsaw scale. Which is why my primary focus has been on commodities and Forex and not on equities.

So let’s talk about Light Sweet Crude Oil today (a.k.a. WTI or the symbol CL) – this is the December contract. It’s been on a veritable rampage lately and is now running into resistance on the daily panel. Now, that does not necessarily mean it’s going to make a u-turn right here and now. Commodities as well as Forex trade a bit different from equities and the final short term moves usually extent quite a bit more than on the equities side.

What’s a bit more interesting however is the weekly panel – which also seems to be nearing resistance after six consecutive higher closes – this week would be the seventh. So the odds of a reversal in the coming week are pretty high – actually they are above 97% and will be higher next week.

Now look at the monthly – it still has a bit space to run but if this bolts higher by Friday then I would have little compunction getting positioned to the short side as the probabilities would greatly favor a correction.

I have two more charts for the subs – sorry, that’s all I was able to scrape together today:
[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Gold seems to be painting a little symmetrical triangle here (however you call it – in my mind it’s coiling up sideways). Obviously a breach of either side would probably result in a strong resolution move – however be cognizant of a fake out breach which often precedes the real move. The hourly panel has us pinned below that 1.776.5 NLBL – obviously a close above will shift the odds toward the gold bugs.

Here’s sugar to sweeten the deal. Now, this is not my typical setup but it’s one that trend traders love. I often have made references to the fact that many trend traders buy high and sell low and I can understand how that may be confusing to many as the inverse mantra is usually what fledgeling traders encounter first. Well, sugar looked pretty oversold on both the hourly and daily panel – nevertheless it just breached another hourly NLSL and both daily lower BB lines are now pointing downward. What may happen here is that we are seeing a downside extension (wave wankers would call it an extended fifth wave) which would result in a long squeeze.

The trend is your friend until the end. And thus far it seems there is no end in sight. When will we know it’s done? That depends on your system, your time window, your pain threshold, etc. Relative to our Net-Lines system I would want to see a swing toward a daily NLBL followed by a breach to the upside – that is usually an indication that a floor may be forming.

Alright, that’s all I have – our FX setups seem to be good shape and I hope you tracked some of them since yesterday.

Public Service Announcement:

Disqus remains broken on evilspeculator – for some reason many new comments are disappearing. There has been no response from support since yesterday – I filed two help tickets and also sent an email to the founders – all to no avail so far. If this does not get fixed anytime soon then feel free to make your displeasure heard but please be nice about it.

My apologies for any inconvenience but this is obviously out of my control. Disqus has been a bit unreliable as of late and I am thinking of replacing it with a competitor. Unfortunately I am not aware of any comment system that is equally popular and more stable. I will shoot out an email to everyone once this (hopefully) gets fixed.

UPDATE: Seems like putting up a new post fixed the issue. Don’t ask me why but I’m pretty certain it wasn’t disqus support that got it going again. Next time I simply repost – good thinking ronbadger.
Cheers,