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End Of This Campaign
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End Of This Campaign

by The MoleNovember 18, 2013

Well it’s been a profitable campaign but today my position was closed at the 2R mark to which our stop had been advanced last Friday. That doesn’t mean equities won’t ride any higher from here but the rules are the rules:

That early morning dip lower did us in – it was a bit of a pain as the Zero Lite suggested that it was nothing but a quick Monday morning shake out. Thus the odds for a bounce back were high.

However, as you can see we’ve gone pretty flat here since and participation is dying out (right panel).

The SPX:VIX ratio is also pointing to some possible monkey business. In case this chart confuses you – the drop of the line means that VIX has been pushing higher wile the SPX painted a new all time high. The SPX managed to climb above 1800 while the spoos missed it by one tick. It’s possible this divergence is due to tomorrow’s VIX option expiration but I still don’t like it. So perhaps today’s stop out will be for the better.

Since we’re talking VIX – last Friday we closed one tick above the lower 2.0 BB. Had we closed one tick below it we would be two steps into a bonafide VIX sell signal today (relative to equities). You lucky bastards!

Congrats to everyone who participated in this campaign 🙂

Nice early morning entry on the ZN futures. I think it’s worth holding this campaign as we are pretty close to getting above that monthly NLBL which was failed earlier this month.

Copper is painting a juicy inside day candle. Both of those triggers are interesting as copper just failed its 100-month (not day) SMA – thus a failure or a bounce here will probably have long term implications.

Soybeans is presenting us with an RTV-S setup – entries will be valid after the session close tonight. I also love the context here as the 25-day is meeting the 100-day with prices right on top. This is a good one and although it’s not a popular contract it’s worth considering a small position.

 

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    Campaign..
    http://i299.photobucket.com/albums/mm308/diabeticgirl4/napoleonrat-1.jpg

    Napoleon jailed 13 Catholic cardinals for not attending his second marriage. And Napoleon’s officers kidnapped Pope Pius VII and held him captive for five years. – readersdigest.com.au

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    Spoos 1793.25, quite the move down on the 10min.

  • Ronebadger

    I know….don’t trade on the news….

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    1792. just how much rain does Sky have?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb
  • CorporalCarrot

    So early this am in the premarket convergence I dumped most of my longs, nearly top ticking the Dow and getting in excess of 1800 spx on average from entries at average 1752-63 and 15,570. Recently went short, entries indicated on attached chart. The first is actually a disposal of remaining dow longs that drew me only marginally short but the spreadbet platform operates on a FIFO basis. Second entry full position short with a tight trailing stop.

  • Sean

    Today is a great example of why exit rules like protect-R are as important, if not more important than entry rules…

  • CorporalCarrot

    Since I posted that there was a big dump I see, stop into 16k.

  • Fearless

    This could be the start of a pre-Christmas dump; however, I don’t believe this is the top. A mini crash here would actually be healthy for this bull, as long as SPX 1576 isn’t broken.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    agreed. it’s a bunch of tightened stops cracking off like a snow avalanche, IMHO.
    60 minutes does not make a trend. trade your setups!
    let’s see where the clues reveal.

  • CorporalCarrot

    I sincerely doubt it; if we make it back down to 1775 ish, 15750ish I will be reloading long in my trading account and I’m still very heavily invested in my ltbh account.

    I would see this as normal consolidation after the insane runup since the fiscal cliff was resolved. I mean we’ve basically been virtually uninterrupted with 6 up weeks in a row, 1200 odd Dow points. A big of backing and filling at these massive round numbers is bound to happen and that is all I have been playing this morning. Should be enough to draw out all the big-baller-top-callers though, in time for another rape.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Incidentally I was assiduously looking at the setups last night and left orders to buy/sell gold at the inside day trigger points and am currently short the metal since 1280.35. Anyone else in here in this one? I dont ordinarily like trading gold as its too thin a market and easily gaps outside stops and stuff but nicely in the money at the moment.

  • BobbyLow

    Are you saying that 6 Points down on the Dow and 8 Points down on the S&P isn’t the beginning of a new Bear Trend? LOL

    Wake me up when we get more than a 10% Correction. 🙂

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and Tom-fuckery. We must be cautious.

  • Sean

    Looks like a slug-fest around that 25h MA mark… but the ticks are making higher highs (though not very high) and higher lows, so this may be the bottom for the day… or maybe one more divergence before closing exactly at the 25h MA? … either way, it’s fun to watch!

  • bdoone

    Could both views be correct? On different time frames? i.e.right now looks just like a stop run under Fridays lows with heavy neg TICK & volume BUT no follow thru (premature beargasm) and retest of highs possible tomorrow as bulls want another shot.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    premature beargasm – that sir is the quote of the Day!

  • bdoone

    Learned from Convict Scott that important tops are almost always retested before a significant drop.

  • bdoone

    I’m seeing ES 25hr ma at 1793.25 & 50hr ma 1791.75

  • Ronebadger

    ALMOST always

  • Sean

    I’m looking at SPX…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    Excellent cook today. I’m outta here.
    sounds like the DEA outside.
    say my Name..

    http://s12.postimg.org/pou0hpjnh/cook_18.png

  • BobbyLow

    To avoid Premature Beargasms, it has been suggested that one think about baseball or some other sport.

    Personally, BB and the Federal Reserve neutered me with a Chain Saw so my desire to short the Equity Market is severely limited. 🙂

  • bdoone

    Thanks.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – worked out nicely for us 🙂

  • Greed is Good

    That would really be something if this dropped back to SPX 1576,the 2007 high, before Xmas.

  • Skynard

    Are we their yet? div showing up:)

  • CorporalCarrot

    Anyone else looking at the cotton setup? By my reckoning we have an inside-inside day.

  • newbfxtrader

    Definitely overdue.

  • newbfxtrader
  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’d prefer a stop into 0.52 on my SMA(5).