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Friday Wrap Up
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Friday Wrap Up

by The MoleMarch 13, 2009

I’ll make this quick as most of you rats are probably getting tanked during Happy Hour:

Again, a great Zero day – We did get a stop signal this morning as we dropped during the first two candles. Starting at noon however it got us long right away up into the close. The more short term Zero Lite got us into short positions early on (circled in orange) and then back into long positions shortly after (circled in green). What else could we ask for?

I’m off – enjoy your weekend, ladied and leeches. I’ll touch base by Sunday with my notorious weekend forecast.

Cheers!

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Anonymous

    First post guys. Here are my thoughts:

    1. We are in a bear market.
    2. We just finished 4 positive days in a bear market.
    3. Volume today on the S&P by my counts was the lowest in the last 15 trading days and the S&P only finished up the day in positive territory by 6 measly points.

    I am short AMZN, the Nasdaq and I bought shares of FAZ. I detest holding positions open over the weekend in this environment, as meetings, fundamentals, mark-to-market rumors all scare the crap out of me.

    However, from a technical/common sense standpoint I’m feeling very good about my positions.

    There’s no question that we’ve got to start heading down very soon. From a technical standpoint it is almost impossible not to.

    I’ve also seen alot of bullish sentiment this afternoon scanning the internet. Always a contrarian indicator if there ever was one.

  • Chrys

    I have a picture for you downtrodden bears. The six week cycle in the SPX is about to turn down.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/mv426P8W6q

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Appropos of nothing, I just observed the guy from the Extenze commercial (not Smilin' Bob, rather the new guy with the woman who says 'Kinda Fun!') in a commercial for First (I've fallen & I can't get up) Alert. Ohhhhhhh the irony…..

    'I've fallen but I'm erect'

    LOL

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Zero was great today,

    It's just I fucked it up lol. no biggie. I will make full use of Zero next week.

    HAGW

  • katzo7

    TOTN,
    There are women on this board (but I love it.)

  • DZZ

    M2M FASBE meeting Monday.

    FAZ < 40 AH

    HHJJ

  • g_man

    Did you make that chart? Nice chart.

  • katzo7

    Mole, we were just getting warmed up on the old post. You are getting like Greenspan by removing the punch bowl just when the party was just geting going. And back a bit you said we should be more like TKs board and serious and research and shit like that.
    NOW
    who would you like to be at a party with?
    Some refined Mensas or us? Now, think about that!

  • molecool

    What the heck are you doing over there? Just follow the signal and you should be good.

  • salvadorveiga

    thanks for the response… where can i find info on zero before i sbscribe ? is it a very short term indicator? cuz i dont like much day trading more like getting some moves like 20-30 points … do we need a specific software or is it an image mole updates?

    thanks

  • katzo7

    Hey,
    look at the top of this page!

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    No, I am not a day trader I was trying some funky stuff in market.

    Click on the Zero tab on top you will find all the information. I highly recommend you to subscribe. All you need is internet connection and explorer/firefox. Cheers!!

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I know shouldn't have done what I did. gave up all my gains of the day. I am currently short /NQ @ 1162.50 and long FAZ.

  • BalaB

    You think that's bad, you should check out the new ad for “the clapper”…
    “Clap On…(Clap Clap)…Clap Off (Clap Clap) Clap On, Clap Off…..You've got the clap……(Clap Clap)”

  • Keirsten

    I have little to offer on this fine Friday afternoon, but…

    DIA and SPY both closed with black doji after a white candle. Second time in the 4 day pattern this has presented so can't make a big deal out of it here, otherwise it might signal the buyers are getting weak at this level. SKF closed above the 200 DMA today- second day in a row it's trying to hang on. I know you all already know the action of the VIX today, but the VXN is still below the 200 DMA, but not by much. Black spinning top on the $USD EOD. No charts from me today until I figure out why Jing keeps making my system crash. MACD on the USD/JPY daily looks “interesting,” as does that ginormous W formation that looks like its giving up the ship. Nothing spectacular about the block trades today either, but keeping an eye out for anything that looks smarmy.

    Have an excellent weekend Rats. Thanks Mole for all that you devote to this site every day. Happy Ides of March on Sunday. 🙂

  • http://www.triathlontrading.com TriathlonTrader

    Looks like we have a long legged Doji—possibly a reversal pattern, but looks certain to be indecisive.

    http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs11.asp

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

  • Susannah

    I have SPY open as 76.01, close as 76.09, so not a black candle? Makes little difference though when its 8 cents! Just wanted to make sure I was understanding what “black doji” meant correctly, that's all.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “Sound of horn”
    not bad for 10 calendar days all long no insurance portfolio
    http://trading-to-win.com/ExamplePort.aspx
    Have a great weekend everybody…

  • Count_de_Monee

    My ladies and lord rats,

    It's been a great week (not for me but I'm sure for some of you), but a least the banter has been up to its usual lofty level.

    Now I must bid you adieu for my fair Lady needs some tender lovin' care now that the little lords are with the inlaws.

    Have a great weekend and remember to seek out that bear in you.

    Veni, Vidi, Dormivi

  • Douala

    I am too Mr T..

    So you feel ok with this position going into next week then?

    Miss your charts [any your little genie]…it has been a while since you posted any.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    check your datafeed spx,spy,/es all green (r u using AMTD feed?)
    doji is just that – doji, especially going into friday – makes perfect sense
    SPY reversal is under 79.67 (/ES 779.50)
    The funny thing is – if it goes higher that area Mon/Tue – there will be flood gates of short covering open…
    Right now just a consolidation in the busy area.of gaps and churning
    Held up 739 – not bad

  • http://capitalcurrents.com Eric

    You talk about Zero as if it has a statistical edge.

    Is there a mechanical backtest?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Next week is my last week at my current job, I will be home the following
    week before I start my new job so expect shit load of charts and
    information. I will be the most active poster all over the web.

    Cheers!! HAGW

  • http://www.triathlontrading.com TriathlonTrader

    good points.

    I have been seeing rising prices on lower volume too.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

    This up move is on the back of M2M and uptick rule changes: nothing else has changed.

    Citi will not be profitable this quarter and neither will they give the TARP money back anytime soon.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Ryan, A reply from your options open interest question two ES posts earlier:

    My initial gut-response was that it depends upon whatever stock or ETF it was you're buying options on, as one security may have a wildly different open interest & daily volume than another.
    However, upon a second moment's thought, none of that means diddly.

    #1 : What is the bid/ask (B/A) spread?
    Who gives a sh!t how many other people are looking at whatever it is your looking at?
    Maybe everyone else is stupid.
    P!ss on 'em.
    If the market makers wanna put a ten cent B/A spread on a fifty cent option that's their business.
    If that's cool with you – fine.
    If not – then you walk.
    You just gotta keep in mind that your fifty cent option just took a 25% cut the moment you bought it.
    It literally has to gain 25% just to break even:
    $0.40 Bid
    x 1.25 (25% gain)
    = $0.50 Congratulations! You're even with the Ask you paid!

    A ten cent B/A spread on a five dollar option ain't diddly, percentage-wise.
    Take a look at the B/A spreads on SKF. LOL! They're nuts!

    Always think of the B/A spread as a percentage of the option's price that your paying versus what you can turn right around and sell for.

    #2 – options under $3 usually have penny increment B/As, over $3 and they're nickel increments.
    This is why I typically work with SPY options a dollar or two Out of The Money, OTM. A penny or two sucks up a smaller percentage of the price than a nickel will.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Hey, K

    Something I enjoy finding is when dissimilar TA techniques render corroborating/ reinforcing/ supportive PoVs.
    As such, SloStochs & Willie are pinging a top to this A wave.
    The trick seems to be figuring out if the five step A wave has already hit 5 – or – is there another weenie run on tap for Monday open. Conceivable, this li'l piggie can keep on runnin just like Thurday before planting the flag on A.

    I'm pins & needles all weekend with giddy excitement!

  • sunzt

    I think we're going down early next week, but still probably a day or so left in this rally:

    http://screencast.com/t/XrlSLZRff

  • BalaB

    Yo Big Guy…..Good looking charts. I ended up buying Mar 77 Calls and March 73 Puts just before the close.
    I bot the puts due to 4 consecutive Up closes in a row. I bot the calls just incase the puts don't work! LOL
    How's that for TA?

    I gave more weight to the puts but candidly aren't too concerned either way because they we're that expensive.
    Which ever side is wrong, I'll just recoup by riding the intra-day futures market (Zero system).

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Dojis are pretty neutrally weak signals, anyway, so it doesn't really matter if it's black, white or red, or even if it's a doji or hammer.

    $SPX : http://tinyurl.com/dn9fuo – hammer
    SPY : – doji

  • BalaB

    Your post the other day regarding two (with in the last 6months) failed V bottom patterns was at the forefront of my mind towards the close. I interpreted the black dojis as potential short term tops and positioned as such.

    Anyhow, I'm very appreciative for your comments / expertise.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Yo, Bala bala balaBEEEEE!
    Thank you, sir.
    MAR 77 calls. Wow.
    I understand the logic, but “Wow.”
    Like I said, I dunno if the flag is in on 5A.
    I see the Zero Sr & Lite finished still rubbin' on the flat line, so you may very well be good on those 77 calls if you bought 'em near LOD & can ditch 'em near MON's HOD.
    Cut your losses ASAP.
    Theta burn OpEx week is gonna be fantastic.

    I suppose that means you've commited yourself to babysitting the PC all day MON, eh?
    HA! HA! HA!

    GL.

  • ZigZag

    The Tranny and Mr. BKX were trying to say something today..

    Okay, Mr. BKX…Is it going to be $15 or $5?
    http://tinyurl.com/dmv8eq

    Tranny, it's time to flush.
    http://tinyurl.com/dyv9yr

    Have a wonderful weekend! Beware the Ides of March..

  • BalaB

    Have a good one.

  • Count_de_Monee

    “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a moneyed aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. The issuing power (of money) should be taken away from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.”

    Know who said that in 1802?

    I'll give you a hint. He was a US President and a very very smart man.

    And also Ambassador of the United States of America to the Court at Versailles (OK, big hint there).

    “moneyed aristocracy” -hmmmm, wonder who that is?

  • DZZ

    Sorry Mole,
    This is to TK. I can't believe the D&cks.
    The reason I don't register or have an avitar. Or post on SOH. What a pain!

    (TK great Friday investools session 🙂
    “My favorite part of this blog is reading the comments from you folks. One individual, however, has made it his life's purpose to keep creating fake profiles and spamming the blog. It is time-consuming and demoralizing.

    Because of this, I have cranked up the level of security to require everyone to authenticate their email. When you try to post a comment, it will (one time only, assuming this works!) ask you to authenticate your email address. It should send you an email, and once you click the URL, you should be good for life. I am hedging my words here a bit, because you never know if there's a bug in Disqus I'm not anticipating.

    Even if you have nothing to say, try to post a comment here to make sure it works (not everyone has to do this; I'd just feel more comfortable if I see a few dozen comments successfully posted).

    Hopefully this will be the end of Ned.”

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Trav

    Can you post a notated/labeled 16month chart of how that “5” @ 665 now departing for the big “2” looks?
    Gracias!

  • DZZ

    PS. I LOVE ES. Have a great weekend all.

  • BalaB

    Re: the 77's
    I purchased just enough that I could re-deem (repair) the loss through
    4 ES pts. (that goes for both plays)
    At stage in my trading career, I try not to buy/sell anything that I
    can't redeem the same day through futures (of course support /
    resistance plotted out
    ahead of time). I'm a total cheap skate. : )

    Also, since we made it convincingly through another strong RL level,
    their may be enough juice to get us to the last final resistance
    threshold (which happens to be healthily through SPY 77). Of course,
    I fully admit how wrong this whole mess may be.

    Re: Babysitting the computer……I do that every day!!!! : )
    This is my job! hahahahahahaaaaa! (oh boy am I in trouble)

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Mole, I am signing up for the zero this weekend. Since I'm fairly new at trading, I was holding off on signing up until I corrected some fairly big mistakes I made last November, but the last couple days have convinced me I'm losing more money by NOT having it (got out of FAS and into FAZ too early). I have to clear the purchase with the Ronco Showtime Rotisserie (aka Mrs. Space Ghost), so it will probably just be a one month trial at first.

  • pricey

    Just watched the Obama deception – interesting comment

  • DZZ

    Do any of you guys ever enjoy this:
    http://www.etfdigest.com/davesDaily.php

  • molecool

    Nice – I hope it can give you that extra edge you seek. I'm pretty confident it'll pay for itself in a matter of days.

  • DarrenDeluxe

    We got within 1 point of a wave 1-4 overlap in the Nasdaq. I'm an EW noob, but can anyone give insight to an alternate count if we the Nasdaq goes up 1+ on monday? (sorry if this has already been asked)

    Looks to me like we'll have some answers fairly quickly. Time for me to go blow stuff up on the xbox.

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Bala- well.. the doji by itself means squat diddly, but when paired with certain other candles it becomes something to observe. In this instance it's paired with the large white candle, so…. still need time over the weekend to digest the last week with T/A and history to see what we can possibly figure out going ahead. There were some interesting closes on the weeklies and monthly charts, but my eyes are too tired to look at another bunch of bars and candles tonight. LOL Hope you have a great weekend my friend.

  • Keirsten

    Geez Louise Fuzzy- you have a nice blog going over there. Bookmarked it. I think we need one of your patented Death Bench charts this weekend, whatdaya say?

  • BalaB

    Cool! Be Well.

    P.S. I forgot to mention, I also took my EOD position based on 4 SPX up closings in a row has a 90% reversal rate.

  • Susannah

    dingleberry, like that haha

    I just wanted to make sure “black doji” just meant the color on the chart and not something like “black belt” in karate where it changes the meaning. thx!

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Deal.
    Sunday ferr sure if not Saturday.

  • Keirsten

    No, when I check candles I go right for Stock Charts at the EOD. Old habits die hard. Agreed about doji (see above) but with a caveat. True dat about Mon/Tues and a flood gate. Then again, we've had 4 up days since the trip to the abyss already and since the shorts had their shorts taken down that now infamous Thursday afternoon in Feb. I think they have probably become more cautious on this type of run-up- but who's to know. The MMs need volume to make money, that much we know, and if it's slowing down they'll figure out a way to crank it up one way or the other. I still tend to think there are some buy orders waiting down in the 650 area, but time will tell. Need to look at the Max Pain site and see where the bulk of the money is hiding on the big names. I don't trade based on Max Pain calculators because I've never seen any consistency to it, but it's a great source to see how the boat is loaded going into OPEX.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    My comment is… I work at a evening job where we all do the same job in different ways and en up with the same result.
    So, with great experience, I can affirm for you that we all gotta figure out what works for eack of us and stick to that plan.

    Trading/investing is no different than sex.
    Whatever it is you do with one person isn't going to be a carbon copy of what goes on with another person.
    Whatever it is you do that generates profitable trades isn't going to be a carbon copy of what goes on with another trader.

    Go with what you know works.
    If it hurts – quit it.
    (Unless… you're into that sorta stuff, in which case “GOFERIT!”)

  • Keirsten

    I love Jefferson.

  • Keirsten

    I need to hook you up to a link for a pattern guy that has the most amazing collection of detailed pattern calls for every thing under the sun. My bookmarks are a blasted mess, but I'll find it and share later this weekend.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Yeah, the color doesn't mean nuthin'.

  • Count_de_Monee

    +1
    We have a winner!!!!

    He was one of the most brilliant men ever. So smart he even designed his own house.

    We sure need someone like him nowadays.
    He foresaw what's happening today a looong time ago.

  • Keirsten

    In case any of you missed this, I can watch it a million times and still crack up. Oscar really outdid himself on this one.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yuwdsNpO_Y&feat

  • molecool
  • molecool

    A whole new concept – LOL 🙂

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Point up.
    Max pain is a farce.

  • BalaB

    “Trading/investing is no different than sex” – Does Trading also have
    a 'Safe' word!?

    My wife and I use the following (in a screaming voice) “OMG! What
    Are You Doing!? Is That A Foot?!”

    LMOA (at my own joke none-the-less)

    Thx Fuzz…

  • fuzzygreysocks

    I D-zined my own house.

    Kan I bee brillient, two?
    POTUS Fuzz : 2012!

    I spy, with my widdle eye…
    The United States of Amexica.
    BRIC economic squalor.
    Water wars. (Not silly little arguments over water rights. I mean “Armored soldiers with 50cals atop Bradleys” Water Wars).
    Asexual human reproduction and males are eliminated as they serve no purpose one “Alelle*Mart” comes to town.

    Vote ferr * Fuzz *!!!

    😉

  • T.B. Aurelius

    We have seen the short term top today…I reckon…

  • fuzzygreysocks

    LOL!

    >> “OMG! What Are You Doing!? Is That A Foot?!” <<

    Is that ya'll's “safe word”?

    LOL!

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Point up, Boss.

    Ho-leeee smokes!
    D'ju see his index projection by APR fooze day?
    http://www.thepatternsite.com/CPIUpdate.html
    DJIA – 6,300 by 04/01/2009
    SPX – 625 by 04/01/2009

    Goooooood gravy!

    Assuming this fella knows his stuff, I'd say that he is not an advocate of wave 5 having already been completed @ SPX 665.

    Rock on! 3 to 4, here we go!
    4 to 5 warming up on deck!

  • BalaB

    Uh…..I love that site.
    Excellent Info….Thx

  • Count_de_Monee

    Damn!

    I'm impressed. Had to read it twice to realise we have similar predictions.

    Except that “Asexual human reproduction and males are eliminated as they serve no purpose”. No way, never happen.

    Sex is too good to ever disappear. Believe me.
    They may not need us, but they'll want us. And that's all that matters.

    Which reminds me, gotta look up that research on water stocks I've tucked away for when the time comes to go long again.

  • solo899

    What's funny is how wrong he was.

  • BalaB

    Yes! And if you don't repeat every word, in it's exact order; that means bring in get out the baking mixer. (Don't ask…….)

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Guys,

    Just updated my chart.

    http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/2009/03/choppy

    Comment and critics are welcome

  • fuzzygreysocks

    >> No way, never happen. <<

    Never is a verrrry long time.
    Once upon a time some little plant figured out that it'd save a widdle bit of energy converting sunlight to enzymes by simply digesting its neighbor.
    A billion years later, some smart MF herbivore figured it'd save even more energy by consuming another herbivore.
    The exclusive reason sexual dimorphism exists is that females reward sexually aggressive males through (largely) voluntary reproduction .(Humans have managed to pervert procreation into recreation, BTW.)
    At some point, some dumb@$$ male is gonna figure out a way to perfect allele swapping & selection giving rise to “Allele*Mart”.
    Add a little bit of natural resource desperation and the ladies will start asking themselves “Uh… What do we need 50% of the violent human population for?”

    Be patient.
    Give it a thousand years or so.

    From a geological PoV, ten thousand… a hundred thousand years ain't diddly.
    I bet less than a thousand years, myself.

    Re: Water stocks.
    Keep an eye on what ol' TBoonePickens is up to.
    He's hyping the NatGas thing and there's a lot of water required to displace that sh!t outta the ground.

    Personally, I think there's easier money to be made elsewhere in the meantime, FWIW.

  • Keirsten

    It's another guy, but I can't find the dumb thing over here. He is a virtual fountain of wisdom for every weird configuration of timing models, closing price patterns.. the whole enchilada in one place. Guess I should be spending my weekend cleaning up the mess in my bookmarks. It's the one thing I'm not OCD about.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    LOL!

    <hands over ears, eyes shut, running from area>

    “LA LA LA LA LA DON'T WANNA KNOW 'BOUT IT! DON'T WANNA KNOW 'BOUT IT! DON'T WANNA KNOW 'BOUT IT! LA LA LA LA L A!”

  • isaiah64v4

    mole

    I take it you have heard of John Murphy of StockCharts.Com? I understand he is well respected in the field of technical analysis. Well he publishes a market message and in tonight's message he address this rally in regards to the Elliot Wave & Dow theories. You may find it interesting. It is very short. If you are interested let me know and I will supply you with what you need to access it. I subscribe to Zero so you already have my email address if you want to contact me there.

  • StainlessSteelChicken

    Make 1/20/09 the orthodox bottom for Minor 1 on $COMPQ. This is the bottom I've always used anyway (I know others disagree) and it's the same date as $SPX.

  • BalaB

    You work at night too? When do you sleep?

  • Count_de_Monee

    OK, let me rephrase. Never is a verrrry long time, you're right.

    Won't happen anytime in the next dozen centuries or so.

    And if it does happen I'm sure glad I won't be around to see it.

    Re: water stocks

    It's for my longterm portfolio as I think water will be the new oil in a few years. Or rather, it will be in my longterm sometime down the line. I can't fathom being long any stocks right now except for a trade. It just doesn't feel right when I think I can pick 'em up a lot cheaper in a couple of years or so. OK, maybe 5-7 years down the road.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Keirsten,
    not knit picking in any way – yuo do the great job as far as I observed…
    Stockcharts
    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=5220#disqus_thread looks “like” black doji, but it is not.
    SPY Open 76.01 Close 76.09 anyhow, this is NOT important – not many things really important, only “having a plan” IS importnant. Here is /ES hourly chart I was trading off for the last few days (start of the rally. All lines are being put in place LONG before “bottom” took place (except for the channel which is in place since Wed morning, of course not counting today's intraday support line)
    That chart from 11AM (I think this morning, too lazy to do charts on the plane…)
    I do agree that hourly sell was put in place around noon, still valid, so most likely market WILL go down Monday. (Unless it will gap up and invalidate sell)
    But this is in no way tells me that this leg up is over, 779.50 on /es is my target.
    DavidDT
    P.S. What is “max pain”? (You have to excuse me – I don;t read other people's sites, thou I do admire from time to time great and concistent job Mole does and the fact that in spite of been bear
    he always keeps other options open)
    OPEX – that is just a chess game, no matter what they do…alwasy was, always going to be – patzies they are…

  • AntG624

    ROFL, nice charts.

  • StainlessSteelChicken

    +1

  • http://forkoholic.com Forkoholic

    SPX Big Triangle nears completion
    http://forkoholic.com/images/spxtri031309.jpg

  • Keirsten

    It's John Thain! LOL

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Swing trading SPY options.
    MAR sub $75puts oughtta be popular shortly.
    APR if yerr chic… conservative.
    😉

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Anywhere between 2am to 8am.
    10am, on a good day.

  • ZigZag

    HA! That was funny! My weekend project is to photoshop his face on that. 🙂

  • Susannah

    Like the charts 🙂

    Haven't you heard, all the banks are cured, $BKX should proceed to $45 😛

  • BalaB

    Excellent! I look forward to checking it out.

  • salvadorveiga

    GUYS, maybe nasdaq is behind and still in Wave II ? There is no count in this graph but Mole look at the relation of SPX and NASDAQ

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/SbsmH_xy-

    it's a really bad indicator for nasdaq…

  • maya

    +1 very nice

  • Karl's Bro

    Real Rats Trained to Trade
    http://sites.google.com/site/artmarcovici/rat-t

    TRAINING THE RAT TRADERS
    The next step was the rats' training. I produced about 800 different ticker tracks of different market situations. Since I I did not want to make it too complicated, I only used the USD/EUR future to make the rats experts in this specific market segment, but other rats can be trained in other markets as well. I trained the rats for about 3 months, starting with 80 Sprague Dawley laboratory rats, 40 males and 40 females with the intention to cross the best of them to genetically create the best traders through select breeding. The training environment was a so called Skinner Box, widely used in experiements and industry for behavioral experiements with animals. The rats were separately trained for 5 hours daily (thanks to Anna, Gerda and Dirk who did a great job in the past months). Every day the rats were confronted with 100 different ticker tracks; the goal was to make them find out sound-patterns that humans are not able to recognize, and to predict the next market move after the last sound heard. ( I am currently working on a website to train humans too). Each time after listening to a sound, the rat had to choose between pressing either a green or a red button, green for “long” (if the prices were expected to move up), red for “short” (if they predicted a decline in prices). When they were right they recived a small amount of food (the good rats became fat very fast) when they had taken the wrong button, they received a minor electric shock. Very soon it showed that some rats were doing outstandingly well: they developed a good ability to remember the patterns they were listening to; we needed them to react to real time data though. To get there, we developed the following training cycle:

    week 1 training with historic ticker tracks 1 to 200
    week 2 training with historic ticker tracks 201 to 400
    week 3 training with historic ticker tracks 401 to 600
    week 4 training with historic ticker tracks 1 to 200
    week 5 training with historic ticker tracks 201 to 400
    week 6 training with historic ticker tracks 401 to 600
    at this point the rats from the first round that did not improve were sorted out; 32 rats stayed.
    week 7 training with historic ticker tracks 1 to 200
    week 8 training with historic ticker tracks 201 to 400
    week 9 training with historic ticker tracks 401 to 600
    again we excluded the non-improving candidates from the training group; now we had 22 rats left.
    week 10 training with historic ticker tracks 601 to 700
    this was the real test now: the future traders had not heard the tracks before. We had to sort out another 6 rats
    week 12 training and testing with historic ticker tracks 701 to 800 without repeating any of the tracks during the training
    we were now able to make out the really gifted traders and eventually ended the test series with 4 reliable rats:

    Mss. Kleinworth
    Mss. Coutts
    Mr. Morgan
    Mr. Lehmann (we were quite surprised to find he made it)

    …the training was almost finished; the performances of the top 4 rats had turned out to be comparable to those of the world' s best fund managers. Their ability to recognize sound patterns generated from the market's ticker tape was incredible. And the rat traders also hold another advantage: unlike their human counterparts, they are not likely to be distracted from news or economy fundamentals, their own personal or their bank's financial status.

  • Tecla

    Genius. That is hilarious.

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    In Mole's last post he highlighted the Qs, which are a bit of a fly in the bearish ointment. After 4 up days in a row and with the CPC at extremes in front of OPEX I think the next immediate move is down. However, for those looking for a retest and breaking of the lows I think that the bearish case that argues this is another top is on shaky ground here.

    Quantifiable Edges did some research back to 1970 and found that 2 90% up days in a week shows real underlying strength: http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/03/2

    I'm heavily short here but I'm thinking I'm going to lighten up a lot on weakness next week.

    I don't think we have a bear market bottom but timing is everything.

    A lot of EW's on this and Xtrends board have been betting on a fresh leg lower. With the strength we have seen this week, don't the odds rather favor just another extended trading range with slight bullish bias?

    In the weekly SPY chart here I've highlighted the last time we had a strong upweek with a question are we about to see a repeat? http://www.screencast.com/users/SRSFinance/fold

    IOW, I think we are looking at a SPY retrace back to the $70 area this week and a Q retracement back to $27ish. I don't think probabilities strongly favor a wash below those areas however, but rather favor support being found there that leads to an intermediate multi week trading range.

    Comments and disagreements are welcome.

  • rebozo

    The weekend is a great time for a little kahlua, coffee and t and a….and a little technical analysis. A multi month bottom is in. The wave structure was textbook. A move to the 780 area on the S&P over the next couple of days would be final confirmation for me. A pullback from the 780 level is a great place to get long or longer. Congrats to the few rats who called for the 666 bottom.

  • Zeusmith

    I think your anaysis is pretty good although I think the market will trade VERY CHOPPY in a sidewise-to-down trajectory but will find support at either 745 or 728-730 area. I don''t think the market will go to 700 I'before it goes to 785-800 area. Anybody caught shorting below 728 is screwed in the NT.

  • Zeusmith

    Next week is going to be extremely choppy and thus tedious for momentum traders. Perhaps the biggest moves on the indexes will come Monday/Tuesday then forget about they'll be dead into OPEX Friday. I'll probably stick with trading gold/silver ETF as they have become extremely volatile the past couple weeks.

  • molecool

    Damn – you guys discovered my secret!! — Brain

  • rhae

    Moles charts are just not confusing enough, not really they are very good…. I like to look from a diferent angle for confirmation. The data is all the same, just different presentation

    No you do not have blurred vision….This chart is a dual fib analysis looking for re enforcements… It seems to jib with everyones probabilities.

    I can see why the 50% fib bounce might weaker than the 62% ( no re enforcement)… also fib time matched moles 4 wave …

    so we may be at the first turn point here (now) or move up to the next one… blue or orange, I forgot

    http://screencast.com/t/vsTHFtNBCSK

    note: anchor points in play unless a lower low… and way out on the horrizon price can follow the arcs down

  • Chrys
  • Chrys
  • xyz

    I am trying to figure out what to make of the spontaneous GUN talk on Friday….should I upgrade my S&W 357 or be frugal and just make sure it is oiled?

    As you can see, this blog gives me food for thought.

  • Chrys

    The guy that runs astrocycle.net has a trading system (public as far as I know) that hedges SPY and QQQQ. Currently he's selling SPY and buying QQQQ.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Jz7ptccw

  • shademan

    Not a chance. Go back and take a look at charts of the great depression. What we saw last week is nothing unusual. it's a bear market rally. No fundamentals in the economy have changed.

    There's no chance we're going to just hit 666, V, and start roaring back. That's not the way it works. The economy is in shambles.

    Even if 666 does turn out to be the bottom, which I highly doubt, we'll at least get back to retesting it.

  • Peasant

    FCX looks like a good short candidate in the near-term (march or april puts)
    http://tinyurl.com/czgz64

    a good near-term long candidate:
    http://tinyurl.com/cf4utg

    WNR's price movement on thursday and friday appear to be a fund or two liquidating their position. i cannot stress how much the refiners are being underestimated, in my opinion. you will want to be long a refiner or two when their 1st quarter earnings are released.
    http://tinyurl.com/cjmp8s

  • BalaB

    Sounds pretty darn plausible to me.

  • BalaB

    Mr. T.B,

    Would you mind expanding on your summation? I'm always very interested in what you have to say.
    TIA

  • Trav

    Women didn't exactly evolve into a position to be “deciding” things like this.

    Plus the first time the power goes out in an ice storm or anything needs to be built or invented, they'll have a pretty rapid change of heart.

  • salvadorveiga

    no… if you check his graph he bought qqqq and sold spy back in october/november…. White arrows buy QQQQ and sell spy, yellow arrows you do the opposite, sell nasdaq and buy spy !

    Right now look at where the indicator is – pretty much at the same levels of the other yellow arrows…

  • Lordted

    Nice Radar shot. Which software is that on?

  • Squidman

    hahaha: Oil is cheaper and we may need the cash for bullets.

  • Lordted

    That is a serious Bullish engulfing pattern. Even if it is not the bottom it is a bottom… Bears are waiting for the final 5th wave down and can't resist loading up… Exactly the same happened in March 2003 and they got their fur ripped off.

    We may get a fall . But if we don't there will be a lot of fried bear out there.

    I posted this last week some time… must have been wasting my time.. Ho hum.

  • Squidman

    That is the most confounding scenario, thus probably the most likely. Chop, chop, which is what I was fearing. However, I am starting to really embrace channel surfing with the zero, and that scenario is probably the best surf report.

  • Marc45

    I wouldn't put too much stock in historical technical analysis such as 90% up days, etc. The better bet is to look at the great depression and the bond market. As long as the trillions of debt are still being absorbed (not expanded) we are only going to see bearish conditions. CDOs are still very toxic, the job market is still dying, the only good news is propaganda, feel good news like C and BAC recently and the government is still printing money like there is no consequence. At best, government efforts will slow down the decline only to make it last longer.

    As a reminder, when was the last time any government official was right about their rosy predictions for a recovery? There is way too much hope right now. I'm also concerned that gold can't drop and oil is climbing. Plus if the dollar drops due to fundamental concerns (read: China) rather than technical ones, it could get a whole lot worse.

    Next week should bring a ton of volatility. You can probably make money up or down if you time it right.

  • Marc45

    March 2003? You've got to be kidding me!

  • Squidman

    It was hysterical–he's really got that East coast humor down. Almost as good as Klick & Klack. I really worry about his cardiovascular system though–he could barely breathe after that. Cramer looks due for a heart attack as well.

  • Lordted

    No. Take a look at the DOW March 2003. True it was the gulf war kicked off. But I was trading then and all the bears I saw on the bloggs were loading up for the final leg down that never happened.

    There are no tanks driving the price up here. But if that price gets airboune it's going to go like a badly drawn pint of beer…

    Just trying to make people aware… But I am short right now and will hedge if it takes off on Monday. Personally I am expecting a small trace . Let's see eh?

    Have a good weekend

  • katzo7

    Sent it to me too pleaze, Keirsten the beautiful and smart one

  • katzo7

    You two are out of control.
    Hit the showers

  • katzo7

    You two are out of control.
    Hit the showers

  • MrTrader

    Now that's what I call some comprehensive TA, nice work!

  • Keirsten

    Can anyone trading DXH9 comment on the volume for the last several days? I know exp. is on Monday… just trying to piece some things together for my own edification. TIA.

  • Keirsten

    BTW- FOMC meeting on Tuesday- not that we can expect anything earth shattering.

  • Jammer63021

    100% correct in my opinion based on the charts of the Great Crash and every other serious bear market.

  • Jammer63021

    Its a decent point worth noting. I think we are in the status of Fall 2002 myself. The low was then and it was tested. From there we were off to the moon. My guess is having just made the lows we will shortly test them again whether or not we break them, as that seems to have been the pattern with all bear markets. Whether or not wee go parabolic after the test, who knows, but that would be the most staggeringly weird end to the greatest $$ crisis in history you could possibly imagine.

  • GeoMay22

    If you're referring to the low volume in /DXH9 specifically, you may want to check out /DXM9 as that is considered the more “active” contract now

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    I agree with your points on a longer term basis. On the near and intermediate term, however, I can see the market chopping sideways and even moving a bit higher for another 6 weeks or so before it hits the longer term downtrend line and makes another stab lower. This is based on my analysis of this bear market, not just historical bear markets.

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Geo, I'll do that instead. 🙂

  • CobraKai

    Anyone here look at sentiment/breadth indicators? I'm not sure of their predictive powers myself but there seem to be some negative implications showing on the charts. For instance,

    % of S&P Stocks above 10 day MA — at a very high reading (+2 SD) which has let to downturns in the past – http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-
    S&P vs 5 day MA of Equity Put/Call Ratio — at a very low reading which has signaled short term tops in the past (although, the 10 day MA isn't quite as bad) – http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-
    5 day MA of NYSE Advance/Decline Volume seems to have peaked — this has let to downturns soon after in the past — http://www.screencast.com/t/VdnyKBAv

    Would love some opinion/feedback…

  • katzo7

    We cover everything here, your Walmart of blogs (just kidding Mole, don't get mad, you are the classiest CEO, even better than Sam Walton). From soup to nuts here.

  • katzo7

    YOU HAVE ALL HEARD ABOUT THIS. WHY did Mole le cool and others get it right and firm who has millions to spend on research get it SO wrong? Why didn't they just sent the check for research to MOLE?
    DO NOT TRUST, BELIEVE, OR ACT UPON ANYTHING THESE CHARLETANS SAY. And, still want to get a job at the SEC, what a piece of cake.
    *****************************************************************************************************************************************************
    Blood on the street: Was CNBC too much of a cheerleader for Wall Street before the
    meltdown?
    In this Thursday, March 12, 2009 photo, Jim Cramer, left, host of the “Mad Money”
    show on CNBC, talks with Jon Stewart during an appearance on Comedy Central's “The
    Daily Show with Jon Stewart” in New York. The feud between Stewart and Cramer has
    been good for laughs, and ratings, but has also raised the serious question of
    whether the experts at TV's No. 1 financial news network should have seen the
    meltdown coming and warned the public. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
    03-14-2009 8:48 AM
    By DAVID BAUDER, AP Television Writer

    NEW YORK (Associated Press) — The feud between Jon Stewart and CNBC's Jim Cramer
    has been good for laughs _ and ratings _ but has also raised the serious question of
    whether the experts at TV's No. 1 financial news network should have seen the
    meltdown coming and warned the public.

    Over the past two weeks, Stewart's “Daily Show” on Comedy Central has ridiculed CNBC
    personalities, including Cramer, the manic host of “Mad Money,” by airing video
    clips of them making exuberantly bullish statements about the market and various
    investment banks shortly before they collapsed.

    Stewart has charged that people at CNBC knew what was going on behind the scenes on
    Wall Street but didn't tell the public. He has accused CNBC anchors and pundits of
    abandoning their journalistic duties and acting like cheerleaders for the market.

    “In a tremendous boom period, they covered the boom and people wanted to believe in
    the boom,” said Andrew Leckey, a former CNBC anchor and now president of the Donald
    W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism at Arizona State University.
    “They didn't uncover the lies that were told to them. Nobody did. But they should be
    held to a higher responsibility.”

    But Don Hodges, chairman of Hodges Capital Management in Dallas, said he doesn't
    fault CNBC for not seeing the bust coming.

    “I'm not sure that anybody had seen it coming,” he said. “I've listened to all of
    the so-called experts, and it's obvious that everybody is very confused.”

    Cramer, for his part, appeared on “The Daily Show” on Thursday and was interrogated
    Mike Wallace-style by Stewart. Cramer acknowledged that he made mistakes but said
    that he and CNBC weren't alone.

    The questions raised about CNBC are similar to those journalists faced about what
    was reported during the months before the Iraq War.

    CNBC spokesman Brian Steel noted that the network “produces more than 150 hours of
    live television a week that includes more than 850 interviews in the service of
    exposing all sides of every critical financial and economic issue.” He added: “We
    are proud of our record.”

    All of the cable news networks recognize the growing popularity of shows with a
    strong point of view. But is there too much talking and not enough reporting?

    “They need some adult supervision about what people get to pop off about over there,
    even if it is opinion,” said Dean Starkman, managing editor of Columbia Journalism
    Review's The Audit, which focuses on the business press. “They need to look into the
    mirror and see how close they are intellectually and emotionally with the people
    they cover. They need to sit back and get some critical distance.”

    Some CNBC defenders have accused Stewart of taking some of the video clips out of
    context, or blowing them out of proportion.

    “A politician stumbles over himself,” MSNBC “Morning Joe” host Joe Scarborough said
    on his own program. “Then they pick it out. They edit it. He runs the clip, and then
    he makes a funny face, and the whole audience has a Pavlovian response. And you know
    what? It's really easy to be a comedian and take those cheap shots.”

    Some at CNBC believed, at least prior to Cramer's appearance on Thursday, that the
    controversy was ultimately good for the network because of the attention it drew.
    Some questioned whether the business professionals who make up the bulk of CNBC's
    daytime audience would be affected by Stewart's criticisms.

    From Feb. 19 through March 9, CNBC averaged 361,000 viewers during the business day,
    compared with 328,000 the three weeks before, according to Nielsen Media Research.
    During the same period, the page views on CNBC's Web site went up 22 percent from
    13.1 million to 15.9 million.

    Similarly, a video clip of Stewart's original criticism of CNBC last week has been
    seen more than anything else the show has put online this year.

    “Stewart's a comedian and Cramer is a showman,” said Robert Howell, professor at
    Dartmouth University's Tuck School of Business. “If anybody takes seriously anything
    that (Cramer) says, they're stupid.”

    Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be
    published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
    Disclaimer: the news stories on Cox.net are the work of leading news organizations
    whose services are purchased to populate Cox.net with news as a service to our
    customers. Views and opinions presented in the news are not necessarily the views of
    Cox Communications.

  • ColdC

    In a SHTF scenario a pistol with high capacity magazines is a must. My next choice would be a 12 gauge that accepts an 18″ barrel so that it could be used for both hunting, home defense, & a “riot gun.” Remington model 870 for example.
    You need to spend time at the range with your handgun until you can consistently shoot a 10″ group into the center of mass at 10 meters. Probably 80% of the people that I see at the range cannot do this. You also need to practice shooting while moving. Become comfortable with keeping that gun running. Practice, practice, practice.
    I would encourage everyone to read this: http://ferfal.blogspot.com/
    Start by choosing “Argentine Collapse” under the Labels menu on the left hand side of the page.

  • MrTrader

    Mole/Others,

    A couple of day ago you and another fellow rat were talking about manipulating an after-hours stop-hunter using a stop-order as a carrot, I suppose a matador analogy would have been better here but oh well…

    I know limit orders are visible to market participants with the right subscription/tool, but are stop orders similarly visible? Your conversation appears to suggest this to be the case even though this web site (http://www.eurexchange.com/trading/market_model…) appears to contradict this understanding.

    It reads: As market orders, stop orders are not visible in the order book for any market participant.

    So this leaves me still in the dark regarding my inquiry: are stop orders similarly visible – like limit orders?

    I know e*trade offers hidden stop orders (Hidden stop orders, which allow customers to enter a stop order that's invisible to the market centers, will also be offered. E*Trade will anonymously hold the stop on its books; if the order is triggered, it is routed as a market order for execution)

    Do TOS or IB allow for hidden stop orders?

  • MrTrader

    I put together a list of some ripe looking short candidates if anyone is interested

    http://screencast.com/t/kW8xIEUd

  • Victor Berry

    For what it's worth, some P&F charts for $SPX and $INDU have switched late this week to bullish with preliminary targets of about 930 and 8700, respectively.

    Also, for what it's worth, long term charts appear to show about half of an inverse H&S pattern forming which implies the Japanese yen will be weakening to 110 yen per dollar.

  • C.C. Rider

    Game plan for this week. Here's where EWT loses it's value for me which is at the most crucial, potential trend changing inflection points, which is only known for sure, after the fact!

    My range of opportunity will be the area between 804 and 741 SPX which are the previous two points of significant resistance, with 804 also meeting the down trend line and near 50 percent fib retrace and with 741 being the previous broken bottom which held on Friday. Anything above 805 and I'm long for a multi month rally, and anything below 741would signal a fifth wave down and then rally .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/fo

  • MrTrader

    Nice link, the 10-day vs spx chart looks very insightful

  • rebozo

    Lets just say the wave count is quite clear if you start with the premise that Intermediate wave four ended on February 9 as a triangle off the November lows.

  • Lordted

    Interesting support becoming suppossed resistance on your chart. If you redraw that resistance at the daily close you get a slightly higher resistance. An excellent trader called Alexander Elder uses end of day analysis and cuts off the wicks of candels on his daily analysis… Why? – fk knows. But it looks a little bit better for the short case at present.

    Have a good weekend.

  • katzo7

    Even if stop orders are not visible, if you give me your stock and whether you are long or short, I can tell you about where your stop might very well be placed.

  • C.C. Rider

    The only reason I would say, ” It's different this time”, is you had no volume drop off on this rally compared to the November 21 bottom into Dec 1.

    Have a good weekend yourself.

  • jabber

    Sosnoff was asked about this at the Traders Expo in NYC a couple weeks ago and he said TOS holds all of its orders on their databases so nobody sees your order until it is executed.

  • C.C. Rider

    Final thoughts. Put a stop at 742.45 if you're long and close longs at 800. If you're short, add more below 742.45. Downside from here for longs is 14 handles, upside is 44 handles.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/fo

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve
  • Zeusmith

    Don't forget: The S&P 50Day EMA is 798 and 50D MA is 814. This will act like a massive stone wall should we get to that point ST. I'm hoping to scale in short for swing trade starting 780. I think we're gonna see a relatively big move in indexes Mon. or Tuesday then choppy chop into OPEX

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Howdy Trav,

    Business first: Can you post a notated/labeled 16month chart of how that “5” of “1” @ 665 now departing for the big “2” looks?

    Science second: Across all species that exhibit sexual dimorphism, the female form is the natural state and the male form is the evolutionary adaptation to achieve a reproductive goal.
    You're right, women didn't evolve into a position to be “deciding” things like this.
    Males have.

    Look at your forearm and hand.
    Look at your wife/girlfriend's arm and hand.
    Ask yourself “What can my meaty, broad hands do that her slender hands cannot? Why is my arm designed to look like this?”
    Eliminate that need and then there becomes no need for the allele support equipment, ie: no males.

    The decision will make itself.

    You and I are here just to fight over reproduction rights.
    Mammals.
    Birds.
    Reptiles.
    Amphibians.
    We all sing for our sex.
    If alleles can be cleaned & picked at whim what's our point to a female?

    Furthermore, if someone figure out ex-vivo gestation coupled with perfected gene expression we can strip out all of the messy parts through gene elimination.
    No cramps.
    No period.
    No menopause.
    No hormone gyrations.
    Srewwit all!
    Bye-bye!!

    Time.
    Time.
    Time.
    It's all about time.
    Ten thousand years ain't diddly.
    A hundred thousand.
    A million.
    Ten million.
    Pfft! Ain't nothin'.

    I'd say this tech happens in the next few thousand years.

  • ZigZag

    Hi Susannah,

    TLT is going to at least $120. http://tinyurl.com/bvtvco

    Check out this TNX chart that I posted on Nov 18th: http://tinyurl.com/c6kbg9

    Here is todays TNX chart: http://tinyurl.com/cdrqxs

    TNX is about to crash…TLT is about to soar.

  • papiunc
  • rhae

    Cobra …I track the S&P 10 day breadth chart… I agree with your take at this time… Breadth charts can have a problem with hang time… They can remain over bought or oversold longer than we may think they should…

    Looking back to October, I did notice an interesting trend… The longest the 10 day ,remained in overbought range was 5 days. And oversold was much longer 8 to 10 days… thru there cycles… Currently we are 5 days overbought in this cycle… So either we stay with the trend or we remain in overbought much longer… Which suggests a major market shift… imo

  • de3600

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMnSp4qEXNM love or hate the bush admin they did try to warn the ass hats on the hill. Barney Frank is just amazing

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    Don't know if you saw this, Reality of Cramer and CNBC by Jon Stewart: http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-st

    CNBC will go down. I think next time he should that Knealy guy

  • fa_q

    Really? Seriously? Can we have one trading blog not cluttered with political crap? Just one? I'm sure the whole mess is Clinton's fault. Or Abe Lincoln's fault. Or George Washington for cutting down cherry trees. Allegedly.

    Now please take your political biases to Karl's site with all of the other crazy people. Or maybe just post your ideas at http://www.iblameclintonforlosingthecivilwar.com. Maybe you didn't watch Sesame Street as a kid. 174 posts regarding EW counts, targets, short positions, long plays, fib retracements – and your “pay-attention-to-me-I-have-a-political-agenda” post. One of these things is not like others….one of these things, doesn't belong….

    Well done.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Sorry…I couldn't post earlier due to slow internet…

    Reasoning starts with technicals..
    Doji, and bear harami everywhere…
    many strong stocks head butting 50SMA…
    And many important stocks at upper down trend channel…
    not to mention being just under a very strong R…

    And what pushed me to say the top was in, was the 5min or less intraday charts, many stocks showed trend change at the end of the day…

    Of course all such definite declaration always comes with a grain of salt….so to speak…;-)

  • malusDiaz

    Closed the week & last 2 days above the Nov lows.

    Doesn't that mean this Cannot be wave 4 as it would mean it intersects wave 1?

    We are in Wave B. (IMNSHO)

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Howdy De,

    How'd those SKF MAR puts turn out ferr ya?
    LOL! I know it got a li'l sweaty there for a day or three.
    🙂

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Question : If the JAN – FEB wave 1 to 2 was a A-B-C wave ( https://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/20… ) and wave 4 needs to be different than wave 2 (rule of alternation) – then – shouldn't 3 to 4 not be an A-B-C?

  • DrMalaka

    Great list, I follow a lot of those names and they are all getting fat on the graphs. The home builders especially.

  • Deville

    I had the SKF MAR puts – closed them out for 70% gain at 7.5… only to watch them run up to 16.5… frustrating, but edu-macating…

  • katzo7

    Borrowed this off of an Xtra gloom and doom site. A good read.
    http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/03/ma

  • katzo7

    Mr. Fuzz,
    I don't think it is a hard fast rule. I may be wrong on this but this is my observation. And on another site I saw where a respected analyst positioned the EW5 higher than the EW3, called it a truncated EW5.
    http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/
    This should make some die hard EWers roll over in their graves. LOL

  • Jigsaw

    The perfect short?
    SPY – http://screencast.com/t/lZ2R8OcaGUN

  • Peasant

    You're correct. Minor wave 4 should be a flat or a triangle corrective wave since minor wave 2 was a zigzag.

  • Susannah

    Guess that would make sense if equities crashed, good to know that there's a confluence of indications here.

    Thanks very much for the chart, would have been on the wrong side of that trade! Looks like new all-time highs for $TNX? So, the wave that's coming in the treasuries is a C wave, after that we have a 5 part impulse wave up?

  • molecool

    Not true – the rules of alternation only state that one is often more complex than the other.

  • molecool

    I agree – let's keep political comments to a minimum.

  • de3600

    Worked out good got out 139 total 1200 profit not getting greedy

  • de3600

    Mole it was not a politcal point just a video over the years how warnings came and no one listened.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • Squidman

    Interesting because according to the tutorial I just watched when an order executes to become a market order, it supposedly then leaves their server to become “visible”. Maybe that is old information. The key point, I think, Sosnoff made in that tutorial is to never use stops on futures, forex etc or thinly traded vehicles because they are easy targets, especially after hours. Highly liquid vehicles during the trading day are “too efficient to be stop hunted”.

  • C.C. Rider

    Soft open followed by a push to 780 would confound the shorts. 800 to 815, or bust.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/fo

  • fuzzygreysocks
  • Fujisan

    Great list. Thanks for sharing.

  • BalaB

    mucho gracias

  • rhae

    SPY 60m looks toppy to me… I like to match the EW count with other indicators or patterns… I have seen so many different Elliott Wave prognostications, I have no idea if any are correct… I like this one…In this case with Raff Regression Channel and Quadrant lines…

    60m short term
    http://www.screencast.com/t/b25Xw4AmNa

  • innatedc

    Excellent chart jigsaw…..+1.

  • BalaB

    Uh….yeah…..

    Just took a look at your site and all the accompanied charts and links. I'm so out of my league with this EWT stuff.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTv1Dmu5CYc

  • MrTrader

    Mole,

    This would be an excellent addition to your cartoons/idiograms

    http://screencast.com/t/FFFDEqKeYA

    Enjoy

  • BalaB

    I'm curios to hear from you 'inteligencia' the validity of this argument.

    “The amount of cash hoarded over the past few months as a result of precautionary savings and deleveraging is enormous, as seen from the fact that money-market and savings accounts constitute more than 90% of the market capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 Index.”

    I've read two opposing arguments that “side-lined cash is a myth”. Both plausible.

    TIA for engaging the ignorant (i.e me).

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Once burned twice shy!!

    Sideline cash is there and bigger than ever, but IMHO, we are in a generational
    event and while some of this money will definitely be tempted by the siren song
    of “the bottom is in”. I think we will see this at some point, but when your retirement
    and investments have been sliced, diced and Madoff'ed, most of this money will
    stay put for awhile.

  • ZigZag
  • katzo7

    I agree with you, it was something I was unaware of. Early warning signal to this mess.

  • Peasant

    Maybe i'm interpreting it incorrectly but the .ndx chart looks bearish.

    If intermediate wave 5 for .ndx began on 1/6/09, then minor wave 2 of 5 should not have breached the high of intermediate wave 4 and the minor wave 4 should not have breached the low of minor wave 1.

    It looks like intermediate wave 5 for .ndx began on 2/9 and 1191 on .ndx looks like good area to buy puts … Also, the daily chart for .ndx looks very similar to .dju oddly enough:
    http://tinyurl.com/csscwq
    http://tinyurl.com/dnjsbc

    Someone else posted some fibonacci fan lines and arcs: I tried this out on .spx although I haven't used the fan lines or arcs before.
    http://tinyurl.com/c7tpo9

    it'll be interesting to see what happens around 770-775

  • T.B. Aurelius

    These are some multi day 60min chart, why I believe we have seen a inflection point last Friday…
    TA is not an absolute science, IMV… it is to me, a game of probability, and proximity…
    I sincerely welcome opposing view that shreds mine apart, so I can learn, and see what I do not see…
    Thanks.
    ————————————————-

    Mining: FCX
    http://screencast.com/t/Vwerc7DPn
    XOM
    http://screencast.com/t/HshSYPT4c

    Banking: BK
    http://screencast.com/t/En52yBKInr
    JPM
    http://screencast.com/t/c8YpSWUT
    BLK
    http://screencast.com/t/yGZC8ZQawd

    Tech: AAPL
    http://screencast.com/t/HyqDyGAMap

    Trans: FDX
    http://screencast.com/t/WuwOhGi4Ac
    UPS
    http://screencast.com/t/TAvwBboa1

    REIT: BRE
    http://screencast.com/t/GqX4ZcKE

    Considering the slow creep up all over the place, further upside is possible, I guess…
    But these are as good a inflection points as any other, IMV…
    Probability wise…

  • de3600

    Oh they were april not march

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    You need to aim where it is going, not where it has been or to miss the shot…
    But I know what you mean… : )

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I tried to post multiple charts from every sector explaining my ST bearish view with Jing links,…
    And the darn think just disappears…..
    Anyone have any clue to what is happening?
    I tried with chrome & firefox both……

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Mole
    Would you drop me a line : t.b.aurelius(at)gmail.com
    I will shoot over the charts…maybe you know why it is not posting…

  • Susannah

    Here you go:

    Money flows for mutual funds: http://www.ici.org/stats/mf/index.html#Mutual Fund Institutional Statistics
    What I think is the most important link from the page above: http://www.ici.org/stats/mf/flows_data_2009.pdf

    Money market mutual fund assets: http://www.ici.org/stats/mf/index.html#Money Market Mutual Fund Assets
    The most useful link from that page: http://www.ici.org/stats/mf/mm_data_2009.pdf

    My interpretation is that there is quite a bit of money on the sidelines in the money market accounts. This is probably a lot of 401k money I'd think where people have only limited choices. Otherwise, I think it would be in something a little higher yielding than a money market account (I can get better rates at a lot of banks than I can a money market mutual fund). So, it just takes a visit to a web page to reallocate it.

    The money on the sidelines hasn't exponentially increased or anything, but if you compare its increase to the money flows of the equity mutual funds, comparatively, it's a lot of money. The mutual fund flows aren't showing yet that it's coming in, but the data they present is lagging, so it's hard to make too much of it.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    My understanding is that 2 could be allowed to breach 4 as a flat, it is also my understanding
    that 4 cannot breach 1. I know Jack Schitt, I am seeking clarification from Eliott experts.

  • Susannah

    BalaB, don't put yourself down! I'd love to hear more about how you conservatively structure your trades, to not take on much risk. Please start a blog about that or a series of posts here, I'd be your captive audience 🙂

  • Blind_Squirrel

    What e-mail r u using?
    I understand that there is a bug in a recent update.

    Try using the IE tab in Firefox, that is if you are not using a mac.

  • Chrys

    How many charts? I think it was on this blog that a user had this problem and Mole suggested that it was an anti-spamming thing that prevented the posting of all the charts. Try one or 2 at a time….

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Mr. Snack…
    4 cannot breach 1 in a main trend, which is impulse wave…
    Flat is a term for corrective wave which is anti-trend..
    In corrective waves they overlap all over the place…
    In my personal view though, some of the EW rules are too rigid, and they are often broken in real charts…

  • T.B. Aurelius

    9 charts.

  • T.B. Aurelius
  • Blind_Squirrel

    All I know is alot of people are having trouble with Jing as well as posting
    charts
    using firefox over the last 3 days.

  • ZigZag

    Torpedoes are using a tracking device, which is implanted on the ship's captain – Timothy F. Geithner. LOL!

  • Blind_Squirrel

    My Pea Brain is ready to explode!! Besides roadkill, what are your thoughts
    regarding this recent move of NDX and SPX? R u saying that 4 can cross 1
    off of the 1/6 high??

  • standard_and_poor

    My friday shorting range of 660-670 wasn't trigerred. This monday SPX strength should be contained by 759.82 and 769.82. with greater resistance in the lower boundary, I'll be shorting (spy puts) in this range depending on morning patterns ( watch nasdaq 1440.8 as a possible stop for spx
    related trades, better risk assessment).

  • T.B. Aurelius

    i asked all the blog admins for help on this…
    In the mean time, if you are interested, shoot a mail one to me.
    Mention that you want to see the charts, and let me know your Disqus name please…
    I will send you all the charts…
    t.b.aurelius(at)gmail.com

  • Peasant

    OPEC decided to keep output steady. Oil may sell off Mon and Tuesday. SCO is a double short oil etf.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Mr. Chitos
    I will send you my charts
    Drop me an email.
    My thoughts are in them…

  • Fujisan

    It looks like a fireworks on 4th of July. Just to let you know, it's still snowing in Seattle…..

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Sent.

  • katzo7

    Too many at one time. Limit to three or four T.B.

  • Chrys

    A user over at Elliott Wave Lives On charted the Bank Index which is tracking well with SPX. It calls for a 5th wave downturn soon.

    http://tinyurl.com/dy4vh8

  • Fujisan

    I like your analysis. I see three drives pattern to the upside on an hourly chart….

  • T.B. Aurelius

    let me try..

  • T.B. Aurelius
  • Fujisan

    It's nice to see you, S&P. Thanks for your insights.

  • katzo7

    Ohhh no Steve, he has it correctly targeted. This ship is goin' down.

  • T.B. Aurelius
  • T.B. Aurelius
  • T.B. Aurelius

    REIT: BRE
    http://screencast.com/t/GqX4ZcKE

    Considering the slow creep up all over the place, further upside is possible, I guess…
    But these are as good a inflection points as any other, IMV…

  • katzo7

    BalaB is the bomb. If he was a nuclear submarine commander with 24 nuke missiles on board, and if he was my adversary, I'd just hand over the keys to the country. Good buy, lights out. BalaBeed to death. LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    Hey Fuji, thanks . I'll try to put up a chart later.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    The valuation of energy stocks had been supporting the indexes.
    If/when CO goes sour so should the mkt.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Thanks Katzo…it is done on all 3 blogs..

  • Fujisan

    Looking forward to it. The timing of your last trade was perfect!

  • fuzzygreysocks

    I'm a EWT noob myself, so let me see if I got this straight:
    4 cannot breach 1 on a main trend- except – in a corrective wave it can?

  • molecool

    YOUR MOMENT IS IN!

  • molecool

    What's the problem with disqus? Getting blocked again by the spam filter?

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    Aye Captain ZZ..

  • Blind_Squirrel

    My plan on ES is to sit and wait to see GS earnings and its impact
    on financials before picking a short point.

  • molecool

    New post silly squirrel!

  • molecool

    Good stuff, tuberculosis.

  • DrMalaka

    I am not a believer in the sideline cash theory. That money is not on the sidelines hanging out like your partner in WWE tag team waiting to be tapped in. That money is buys working in other investments. Just because it is in Treasuries does not make it an investment. What is the number one thing people with savings right now want? It is safety. Jumping back in to equities is increasing your risk. How many people 55+ who have seen their retirement savings halved are looking to increase their risk with the market at 750?

    To term this money sideline cash is to ignore that a shift back in to equities requires a sale of the current asset, Treasuries, and also ignores the current benefits that Treasuries offer.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Hehe…
    That's a good one….
    But it is “Two Balls.” thank you~;-)

  • BalaB

    That's very sweet of you!
    : )

  • ZigZag

    The TLT C wave will be a 5 wave impulse move up. Once it's complete, this will probably be the top for this move for a while…If TLT goes below $98 this pattern could be wrong, however, this particular pattern is usually above 80% accurate.

    Also, TNX needs to stay below wave 1: line: http://tinyurl.com/d3v86d

  • BalaB

    Thx. : )

  • BalaB

    That's very nice of you to say.

  • BalaB

    Cool!

  • T_dub

    Zigzag,
    Thanks for the charts – and the pictures ;-)..
    What time frame are you looking at for these patterns to play out ? Any ideas ?
    A TLT spike would probably require a crash – gradual selloffs do not get that done.

    T-dub

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Not the main 1….I meant within the context of corrective wave itself…

  • ZigZag

    Hi T-dub,

    Everything should be at, or getting close to those targets within two weeks..

  • maya

    Hi Zig Zag sorry to bother you again, did you get any signals on your awesome charts thank you

  • ZigZag

    Hi Maya,

    SRS looks like it's heading higher…I had a C wave signal at the close. http://tinyurl.com/dkh3yk

    FAZ looks to be heading up..It needs to fill that gap sooner or later. http://tinyurl.com/crxlom

    I'm still waiting on the SPX, but the SPY chart signaled the end 4 wave today. The target on the SPY is $60…BKX chart is still pointing down..The plunge has begun. 🙂

    I'll post that SPX chart when I get the signal…Have a good evening..BTW, you're not bothering me 🙂

  • maya

    thank you so much

    ________________________________

  • maya

    I hope it's sooner than later for FAZ for my March calls ouch for me, for me, do you think we will see that gap filled this week?

    ________________________________

  • maya

    sorry one lest question I promise for today LOL
    for SRS that target of 120 is ti for in couple of day or in 2 weeks thank you again

    ________________________________

  • ZigZag

    Hi Maya,

    These are going out two weeks. I don't know for sure if they can get there faster. Thursday is our best chance of a market meltdown. Lots of games this week during opex…I hate opex weeks.

  • de3600

    great 🙂

  • tommyms1972

    Again, a great Zero day – We did get a stop signal this morning as we dropped during the first two candles. Starting at noon however it got us fidelity 401k long right away up into the close. The more short term Zero Lite got us into short positions early on (circled in orange) and then back into long positions shortly after (circled in green). What else could we ask for?

  • tommyms1972

    Again, a great Zero day – We did get a stop signal this morning as we dropped during the first two candles. Starting at noon however it got us fidelity 401k long right away up into the close. The more short term Zero Lite got us into short positions early on (circled in orange) and then back into long positions shortly after (circled in green). What else could we ask for?

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