Full Frontal Nonstarter

I have to say that I’m not impressed by today’s shenanigans. Although I will allow for a few scare tactics before a push higher we cannot lose sight of the fact that the E-Mini dropped through both the 100-day SMA and a NLSL last Friday. Today’s post holiday Monday was a good opportunity to perhaps gap lower and then squeeze anyone shorts into oblivion.

We have recovered a bit from today’s lows and that’s positive but I really would like to see a bit more upside here before the bell as we don’t want to close below that NLSL tomorrow. Otherwise we may just lose momentum and continue to slide lower. So for me that NLSL is now the line in the sand that must be crossed tomorrow – Wednesday at the latest.

On Friday I suggested the possibility of a bounce in cocoa to my subs. Reasonable support via that NLSL and that 100-day SMA. Let’s see what happened:

Booyaka! Did anyone take this setup? Of course not as you’re all probably on your summer vacation spreading around those ill gotten gains you (hopefully) banked here in the first two quarters. I for one am chained to my desk. Unfortunately that’s the curse of running a subscription service – you never really get to take more than a few days off.

I didn’t dig up much on the setups front today – a few inside day candles which are way too long for my taste especially given the current holiday gapping game. I may have spotted a live one over in the commodities lair however as sugar is looking pretty sweet as a long. Assuming of course we get a retest of that 100-day SMA it just breached. No guarantees but if you’re conservative it’s a setup worth waiting for – otherwise you may dip into this one right now with a stop below that SMA. Nothing but air above – could be a good one.

Cheers,