Hickory Dickory Dock.

by gmak

Here is a link to my post – which I put up early late last night. I am quite proud of this post and don’t want it to be missed, or mythed, if you want to say it with a lisp. THis is what happens when your beverage of choice isn’t de-caf as you expected.

https://evilspeculator.com/?p=14880

Here is a link to Mole’s subsequent post which is important in how it theorizes that there is AN ENDING to the current bear trap, in the works.

https://evilspeculator.com/?p=14897

Finish the rhyme. “The clock struck one”. Don’t be the one.

EQUITY

Read my last post first.

Asia is totally red, except for Japan. As we know, publiclly admitting that you’re going to thrash the currency is bullish for stocks. Europe is red – and the breadth is quite good. Around 75% of stocks are down. The DAX coninues a mild channel down from the Friday close. Ultimate support if the current level lets go (it is red after all) is around 5900. The breadth down is not convincing. Two sectors are solidl green (consumer staples and utilities). Health care keeps flipping between just green and just red. Info Tech is around 50% green, 50% red.

ES sold off about 5 points when Asia opened and pretty much stayed there all night, except for when Europe opened. I’m assuming that Daylight Savings Time is in effect there as well. There was probably some news aroun 4AM DST that gave the little pop up near the highs of the night. Since then ES has settled below the S1 pivot. For ESM0

• R2: 1157 = Same old, same old. Trying to take SPX back above that January High. This is OPEX, but SPX has failed to close up there. There isn’t any retail money or mutual fund money rushing in to push it over the top.
• R1: 1151.75 = Same story here.
• Neutral: 1146.75 = This was the peak on Friday at the close. Rebuffed, SPX is sulking below. There is a short term TD resistance point at 1145.50 – which was around the high point of the night.
• S1:  1141.75 = ES fell below this and the 9 and 34 pMA crossed bearish on the 5 minute chart. It was underthrown earlier in the night. IF ES doesn’t get back above here before the open, then there could be selling pressure and Monday on OPEX will go against the historic trend.
• S2: 1137 = A decent support level if SPX falls more at the open, and there is no interim move up. This was around the support levels from Thursday and Friday of last week. Breaking this would suggest more of a pullback.

FX

EUR fell with ES last night – but it fell a lot further after ES caught a bid. There is a greater volatility in EUR than SPX, it seems, so be aware of this if you are playing any possible correlation. Check out what I wrote about the EUR under “Is the trend your friend” section in last night’s post.

The daily chart shows EUR pulling back without testing the 50% FIB. It looks like someone threw a rock up and no one caught it. I’ve got overhead resistance at 1.3745 at the neutral pivot, and TD resistance at 1.3756 if EUR gets past the pivot. I’m hard pressed to see any bid under the EUR at the moment. I will say that there was some stop running at 5AM – but no follow through action. It’s like everyone is waiting for somehting to happen.

EUR is threatening to go below the magical 1.37 level. It looks like there is no one buying after the stops were tripped to go below 1.3720. The German gov;t says that there won’t be a decision on Greece aid today, and you know how the markets hate uncertainty.

I hear that the magical number for the CAD is around 1.0155. If you go short the CAD, put your stop below that. (the higher the price, the weaker the CAD, the stronger the USD).

NEWS

A lot of news about how Real Estate and Commercial Mortgage Debt are stronger. The FED is using the last of its TALF , TAF, QE, etc money to give the illusion of returning prosperity.

It’s OPEX week, which is the US market’s version of Hallowe’en. Expect to see the woman seeking attention wearing some wispy thing, and the guy in the beard dressed as a women.

DATA

As I mentioned in laste night’s late post, today is Empire mfg, Industrial Prodution, Capacity utilization, and TIC flows. These are important numbers in that the values suggest some slight weakness. Look for green shoots if, for some reason, they are higher than expected.

That’s about it, except I’m tired and cranky. I think that any civilization that insists on having a ridiculous out-moded practice such as Daylight Savings Time is doomed to fail from irrationality. It saves neither daylight nor time, nor money, and puts peoples lives at greater risk  – as shown time and time again by the increase in accidents at this time.

It was wonderful getting up at an early hour and seeing the sun. Now, I feel as though something has been taken away from me.

Rats.