Intra-Day Update: Could not resist

Update 9:45am: I saw some nice upside this morning.  Momentum seems pretty weak (as we would expect), and many stocks, as well as the indexes, have traded nicely into resistance.  The one that stuck out the most to me is BG.  Up 10% already, right at equality, as well as horizontal support, and diagonal support from a fib fan.  She’s a beaut…  I will likely be taking down the 45s when I get done with this.

I also like the way FSLR is looking this morning.

These are great examples (IMO) of moves that will likely be reversed in the afternoon (or next day or so).  For the record, one order has been filled on BG, and FSLR orders are going in now.

Skål!

UPDATE 10:21am EST: Mole here. It seems that we are approaching the turning point I outlined in yesterday’s SPX chart, which is the 993.5 area. If we breach this one with confidence and push higher I will probably cut the puts I’m holding.

UPDATE 10:52am EST: Just FYI – I did not sell my puts yet. Waiting for 1005 and 1025, the next retracement levels. If we bust through those I might have to accept the fact that this market will keep rallying on vapor. But I usually am not eager to cut my short positions when I see the market being in a super overbought condition. After all, this is when you sell the rip, not buy the rally.

UPDATE 11:12am EST: Berk and I just grabbed FSLR 145 puts. I know we’re nuts but that’s how we roll.

UPDATE 1:13pm EST: One of the reasons I have suspicions that this rally is running on vapor is the TNX, which has been dropping and continues to do so. I won’t be as bold as to call this the high, but this alongside with my momentum indicators has been the reason I have been staying put (pun intended).

UPDATE 2:17pm EST: FYI – $TNX is down HARD – right now at 3.8%. Almost dropped 1 point today – if it keeps this up I see red for those bulls.

UPDATE 2:41pm EST: $TNX now down 1.28 points – it was briefly at 3.765%. Frankly, I’m not sure what is holding up the this market right now.

UPDATE 3:35pm EST: Momentum seems bullish at the moment, despite the TNX painting an ugly candle at its close. Who’s reloading puts here? Berk and I like CNQ, maybe at the closing bell.

UPDATE 6:36pm EST: When I was talking about the market being overbought I wasn’t kidding:

Cheers!