Intra-Day Update: Pivot Time!

UPDATE 11:20am EDT: So, Berk and I went shopping this morning: ISRG, BIDU, GOOG, CF, FSLR, AAPL

Seems we were a teeny bit early as the market turned on us and is now testing 1348 on the NQ, which is a minor pivot plus it’s a retracement level. Has been bouncing off 4 times by now, which made us a bit nervous. So far so good however. The Yen is shot to hell on the stochastics and we expect it to swing up, which would put pressure on equities. Our line in the sand is slightly above 1350 on the NQ, which would cause us to start cutting our puts. If we breacch 1370 Kansas is going bye bye and we would see a major rally, IMHO.

UPDATE 12:33pm EDT: Well, as might imagine, Berk and I took a beating this morning. We just touched 1370 on the SPX which puts the short term bearish case in question. Right now I’m waiting and see where we go from here.

UPDATE 1:43pm EDT: I decided to reload all of my positions about 20 minutes ago as things looked toppy. I recommend you guys to NOT do that, as it’s extremely risky and will most likely backfire in a big way.

UPDATE 1:50pm EDT: I’m looking at my pivot chart and it seems there is a large (institutional) buyer in the YM around the 9020 level. Everytime it goes near that I get a large candle up. Quite a battle going on here right now.

UPDATE 3:10pm EDT: Looks like today is not my day. We just breached 970 on the $SPX, which was my line in the sand – had to cut my positions. Not going long here as the market is completely overbought. Under normal circumstances I would have kept my positions but according to EWT rules the wave count of the a,b,c has been violated, thus I need to see where the market takes us today.

UPDATE Closing Bell: Okay, the market gave me an ass whopping today, as you probably know if you’ve been following the thread. However, I’m actually very excited about this, believe it or not. We finally got a ‘real’ rally and for me this means we’re most likely in {iii} of 1 of (4). A more concise wave count later, once I’m done licking my wounds. But seriously, this is good for us bears – with some luck we get the VIX down below 40 or even 35. Wouldn’t it be nice to buy affordable options again? In the last few weeks it’s been a losing proposition for bulls and bears alike. Had you bought an ITM DIA call today right at the bottom you might have made 175% at the close after the DJI rallied 936 points! That’s not a lot of reward for the risk you take. So, at this point I sincerely hope we get a monster rally for the coming week or so.

Will do a brief forecast once the bottle of Prozac starts kicking in – just kidding – I can take a haircut or two if it serves my evil master plan in the longer term.

BTW, if this isn’t a bullish signal then I don’t know what is – great timing. Hat tip to The Big Picture: