Intra-Day Update: Twilight Zone

UPDATE 10:40am: The TNX is up and the Yen is bouncing off lower resistance around 0.947. That is both bullish for the markets, despite the bad earnings announcements by GE, weak durable goods, and of course lower unemployment (you’re next!). Again, don’t expect much resolution here until we get a final go out of Congress. There is NO direction in this market – it’s being kept at equilibrium right now: Bad enough to scare Congress into passing this bailout boondoggle (BaBoo), and good enough to encourage the bulltards to jump in and ‘buy the dip’.

Looking beyond today, the scenario that seems most probable right now is a market rally to about 11,400 on the DJI post-announcement of the BaBoo, lasting approximately until the 29th-2nd (which conveniently matches moontrader’s turning date). This time frame also ‘feels’ right intuitively, as this historic bailout of the financial sector on the shoulders of overextended tax payers facing a depression won’t stem economic Armageddon for more than a few days. Good times indeed – if you are an evil bear. And after what the PPT pulled last Friday, my evil meter has popped the scale.

To my nefarious minions I recommend to perhaps grab a small amount of long positions here and there, but don’t go crazy and ‘go all in’. Wait for it and ride the wave up when it comes. However, let me re-emphasize that the REAL MONEY will be in loading up on puts once this horsewash rally nears its peak. Mr. VIX will will have scaled back from alert level red to orange or perhaps even green. Option pricing will be a lot more reasonable as ‘risk’ has been greatly reduced. Remember that kicking a bull is a lot more fun when it comes unexpected. Let them have their little rally, after all we’re paying several Trillion Dollars for it. Keep it clean – I’ll check in later.

Cheers!