It’s Baaack!

If you’re a bit puzzled about today’s E-Mini session then you’re not alone. That was a fine ramp across the board but seeing us fall right back to the ole’ volume hole is a bit disturbing. That’s right – it’s ba-aaack!

I’m starting to feel like Bill Murray as the 1420 level is turning into the price equivalent of ‘I Got You Babe’. Talking about a broken record! Sorry if I’m mixing up movie themes here. As I’m typing this the spoos actually have dropped to 1418, thus we are smack middle in the hole again. We’ve been visiting it since August and quite frankly it’s time we clear it – one way or the other. As of right now the bulls are still ahead but I’m a lot less convinced as I was this morning. To be clear – that ramp should have not been followed by a sell off. VIX buy signal or not – today’s action is concerning.

But the steel rats have much to celebrate. You recall our EUR/USD ST setup which triggered my last kiss goodbye entry yesterday. Time to take at least partial profits as we are approaching possible support.

Copper – nice early morning entry and we are now in our ‘getting the hell out’ range. FYI – I’m not holding any positions medium term as we met the bearish PO on our P&F chart. More on that later this weekend.

Gold – one of our better trades of this year. You probably recall that sugar sweet LKGB entry a few weeks ago. It’s now time to start scaling out as we are approaching the 100-day SMA. FYI – our P&F target is near 1600 – that’s not a typo. But Rome wasn’t built in a day and I do expect a bounce here – hopefully we get a better entry after a correction.

Same on silver of course – time to get out as today’s sell off banked us some mighty coin.

I was able to dig up a few more setups but I’m currently treating lightly as I don’t like to take on too many positions during/after a big swing across the board:
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EUR/JPY – we got a possibility of a fail of the NLBL on the daily panel. It’s a cheap short and my guidepost would be the 100-hour SMA. It’s a cheap shot in the dark with a stop above the NLBL. I would definitely flip this one if we breach higher.

AUD/JPY – looking strong and I see little resistance. Those BBs are about to point higher and we now got a cheap re-entry at the 25-hour SMA. I would let that one do the talking. BTW, nice little fake out earlier this morning, if you got shaken out don’t feel too bad. That’s part of the territory and those MMs will get their share.

Obviously the Dollar caught my attention today for two reasons. One – my exchange rate just got a little much needed boost. Two – there seems to be an inverse H&S in the works. Could be interesting and I think we want to be long at a breach of the neckline. Of course it won’t happen so easily – for one the hourly looks shot to hell. And two – there’s usually a little curl below before it takes off. The bus moves fasteset once everyone got off.

Bonds – the ZB is sitting on support on both panels. I would very much enjoy a breach here and the hourly will be my guide for the daily. Especially convenient over night.

Coffee in an interesting position – there’s a NLBL + the 25-hour SMA on the left. And on the daily panel we got an inside day:

Here’s the official range as of now – which gives you two ways to play this one. It’s not just an inside day, it’s also a NR4, the smallest range in four days. If you’re a noob please consult the cheat sheet for the rules.

Bonus Chart:

This is what I tweeted on the 23rd (and posted about on the 21st and 22nd) – another good reason to sign up for my tweeter feed.

Cheers,