Lack of conviction…

I’m gonna keep it short and sweet tonight.  I haven’t been feeling too well, and have only been casually observing the markets for the past few days.

The markets seem to have broken their upward corrective channel, signaling a move lower is likely underway.  Let me clarify the move lower since,at this point, we cannot decisively discern the best wave count taking place.  That said, the push lower COULD stop in the area around 7900 in $INDU if the rally from the 11/21 low was a [1] up (most likely a part of [4]), and the subsequent decline, then rally, and now decline would be the A (drop), B (rally) and C (recent drop still underway) of wave [2].  This level in the $NDX would be around 1065.  The other major competitor for wave count would be that the decline is just starting wave [3] of and ending diagonal.  If this were the case, we should continue to chop lower, but with plenty of rallies in between.

We are also entering a seasonally slow period, as we are working well into the holiday season.  Breadth was drastically negative today, not quite completely reversing yesterday’s positive numbers.  Either way though, we can expect many whips for the coming future.  There are solid resistance levels on both the top and bottom, and until we can break either of these levels, the near-term trend would best be called sideways.  Likewise on the mid-term, though I will call it mixed until we get a clear signal.  And since I favor overall down-side resolution, I am moving the long term indicator to down-up.

I do apologize for the brevity of this post, as I mentioned, I am not feeling stellar, and since I have little conviction, do not feel like rambling back and forth between views.

Skål!