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Blogging Is A Two-Way Street
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Blogging Is A Two-Way Street

by The MoleDecember 4, 2008

I have to say that I’m pretty pissed off tonight. Not about the market – it did what the zero strongly suggested it would do all day – break the bear wedge. Not about the fact that my favorite strip joint burned down today either. No, I’m miffed about you guys.

Seriously, I just hopped over to the Slope and there are basically pages after pages of analysis, trade symbols, insights, etc. When I compare that with what I saw today right here I’m really disappointed. I got 30 questions about why the indicator is now blue and why it briefly swung up for a second and then back. Or why the 30 min flags earlier than the 1 hour, or that v. 1.0 gave a slightly later signal than v. 2.0.

Folks – I’m not going to burn trading hours explaining to you guys how indicators work, that’s why I posted a tutorial. They behave like candle charts or line charts, which means that the tip changes as the market changes until the chart time interval is over. Not sure why that is confusing to anyone. This is starting to take away time from my own trading and thus affects my profitability.

In the last few days I have been going out of my way to guide you leeches through his difficult tape. I even managed to improve on an already extra-ordinary trend indicator which is available for free to all of you right now. Has anyone at least paper traded this thing today? Well, you should have as the 1hr gave us a red flag at 11:17am EST. And stayed red most of the day, only turning blue for half an hour or so. The SPX was at 870 then and it closed today at 845 – I’m not even counting the 834 low for today. Now, 25 points are not exactly much compared with some other days recently, but the point here is that it was spot on and everyone seemed to be caught like a deer in headlights.

Where are the long lists of short or long candidates? We were obviously in a rising wedge – or something else that would resolve one way or the other. I know the tape has been mind numbing of late, but that’s why I mentioned one of my favorite quotes today:

The bus moves fastest once everyone got off.

Which is exactly what happened. When the lower wedge was breached I was posting a shit load of short candidates. From thousands of stock in the NYSE there was nothing you guys were looking at? Here are the three P’s that make the difference between traders who make money and the ones who lose:

  1. Preparation
  2. Patience
  3. Plan

The way it’s been going lately I might have to reduce the time I spent blogging and focus on finding profitable trades. I’m not making a dime out of all this and hey that’s okay – I don’t even bother you guys with an ad banner. But when I see mucho effort go in and very little come back out I get a bit irritated. This blog is to incentivize you guys to become better traders. That’s why I made the zero available, that’s why I post early morning charts with the retracement levels, and that’s why I keep commenting on pretty much every market move.

Blogging is a two-way street. Throw something back that has substance. I don’t care about hearing why you screwed up this trade and that trade and that you’re pissed off at the market. It’s okay to vent sometimes (I do the same) but the scale should swing in the direction of substance. Tell me what you are trading and why. If you are not trading, tell me what you have your eyes on – what the TA is on it – is it overbought/oversold – what are its main characteristics based on your experience? What your favorite sectors are right now, etc.

I keep seeing comments like:

‘SPX at 820 today!!! This will separate the men from the mice!’

Completely useless – no matter if we hit 820 or not. Where are the charts? What are you basing your insights on? I’m going to start deleting comments from posters who just throw out empty predictions and don’t back them up. And get yourself set up with jing – I’ve been asking for a month now and I don’t want to wait until Christmas (you know who you are).

Yes, I’m miffed tonight – if I don’t sense a change here I will start scaling this shit back. Feels like a fucking barbershop in here lately. I don’t care what other bloggers do or don’t – but I won’t tolerate slippage around here. More than nine out of 10 traders fail in their first year. Guess what – the remaining one works his ass off at least 12 hours/day – 24×7. It’s the stainless steel rat who beats all the others and walks away with a mountain of cheese.

So tomorrow when you show up at your trading desk – wherever that may be – ask yourself the question:

Am I a stainless rat or a mouse? I don’t care if all the mice leave and I get only ten comments from a handful of rats per day. This is not a popularity contest – I don’t give a rat’s rectum about getting some damn blogging award. Because I know the rest of us will be banking coin instead.

I’m going to crank up some Rammstein now and blow off some steam…

Cheers!

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • solo899

    I don't post much but LOOVE your blog. Calm down for your heart's sake. You run a great blog!

  • nxg

    O.K. Tobby,

    I don't even use the “zero” but I'll throw in some interesting areas for you to look at. GRT, GGP, and the rest of the commercial real estate space. Nice coupe and hndle on GGP, interesting action if $2 is stroked and held, course they may go BK next week. I say squeeze the dirty little bastards!!!!

  • de3600

    SPX at 820 today!!! This will separate the men from the mice!’Bullshit quotes annoy me and it happening alot here .It is like wildfire on tims site people just throw out shit WE GAP DOWN BIG TOM ETC ETC TEC half these post have no merit at all. swear turns into he yahoo message board.And than you have people that work their asses off a blog and what to we freebies do bitch.Now that being said I have posted my views on things I like chart formation APPL AND FLSR broke thru their nextline yesterday and failed to see if we get another retest i think so on the 1 year they are forming to h and s they have to break out and go higher to finish.Also SRS has a nasty H AND S it broke the neckline at 120 yesterday and restestes today and close at 119.I like to hold my puts or calls more than 12 hrs

  • JWBlack

    Hey, Mole —

    Maybe the lack of posts is a good thing. Look at xTrends. Sheesh.

    I don't think I've ever offered my tithing of praise. Thanks for your work,

    Now, think about this. You are giving us a trading system that can be openly followed, unlike, err, Erik and the Hun at another blog. Naturally, your readers are going to look at it and ask questions and complain about what they think can be improved. They are complimenting you. Chill.

  • http://www.myspace.com/anunakki anunakki

    Hey Mole

    I just want to say I appreciate your site and all your work . You need to remember Tim has been around a long time and in the begining his blog was DEAD. You run a great thing here…dont let comparing yourself to one of the most successful blogs out there deter you.

    Also, yeah on the body shop…my GF works there. Bad times as its the only club she likes…back to Deja Vu NoHo now !

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Has anyone done some research on price action after the monthly employment reports? It seems that so many people expect alot of volitilty but as far as i can remember alot of the times the market doesn't do much.

  • Fubar1951

    I wanted you to know, I followed thru on my commitment to keep Zero 2 on my second computer during the trading day. My assesment after 1 day is: It is a great tool, I am not comfortable with it yet. I used it as comfort/confirmation with my other tools. The blue line appears to me the tool I will use the most in the future.
    I will not “papertrade” Zero. When I am getting a premonition from my other indicators, I will look at blue line for confirmation. If it is confirming, and the direction of my trade is subsequently confirmed, I will use blue line increase my profits.
    For which I will reward you with a bottle of your favorite adult beverage.
    Stand by for News!

  • benji12

    wutever the charts say, tomorrow will be a mystery. As it may be one of those days where the worst employment news possible may send the mkt rocketingl. that's the trend lately.

  • gotoguy

    This makes me pissed….

    http://www.gotoguy.com/?p=604

    These bailouts are ridiculous. I need a drink.

  • molecool

    You girl must be pretty hot πŸ˜‰

  • http://www.evolutiontraders.com Evolu

    Agree on your rant on bloggers who just post ..Heh short at 870 when its 10 points below when you read it. absolutely useless in my option. Heres where my respect comes in…….Make a call the night before that tells people what to trade , when to trade and what to look for . That to me is someone who deserves the Credit and respect. If a trader thinks he knows his shit, call it the night before at least hours before!

  • planetelex

    Mole/Berk, love your work seriously. Sometimes I admit I probably take it for granted that you put so much information out there for little or nothing in return. For what it's worth, I really appreciate it. Seriously. And, mark my word, I will bring the charts. I still feel like I don't have a lot to offer as I'm still on a very steep learning curve but as I progress I will bring truck loads of charts. I already have the jing account in preparation but I still feel as though I don't have enough to offer just yet.

  • molecool

    Thanks – I just wish there was more substance sometimes. Give me trades people!!! πŸ˜‰

  • http://www.myspace.com/anunakki anunakki

    mexican girl…long black hair…tattoo of a flower/butterfly on right shoulder. Nursing student. Cool chick but nothing serious.

  • Indamani

    I understand you being pissed. I post rarely here because I am in Europe. However,I read often here since the Dow wags my beloved SMI (that's the Swiss index I prefer to trade) by the tail. I do not have much to share other than what us poor Swiss rats have on our tables, but here we go. What we have is unreasonably expensive too, as is custom in Switzerland. Therefore lots of meat on shortable bones.

    If you are looking for ideas to short, I mught suggest you try Synthes (SYST) and Lindt (LISF). Synthes is in prothestics and medical equipment, has formed a neat rounded top through the last 5 years, and is on the verge of a breakdown. Overvalued as hell too (for comparison, you might look at their direct competitor Stryker (SYK), and where it is now). LISF make expensive up-market chocolate, and are hugely overvalued too (their divvies are loke 0.1% of the stock price). I am short the former, and will short the latter tomorrow. I've been short Lonza from July. Look at where they are now. SYST will follow suit in due course.

    Lemme know if you want us Swiss rats to deliver some fresh cheese bites from our table to yours from time to time.

  • Royal With Cheese
  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    I rarely trade individual stocks – so I'm not much use to you there.

    The Zero indicator looks fairly handy, but due to time constraints I haven't been able to trial it in my trading yet.

    However, on the stocks front the one thing I will pass on is that Atilla is calling for the blue chips to get hammered in the next move down (whether it just started in the last few days or comes in January). Seems to make sense to me as this one should *finally* be a capitulation-type move leading to a rather long-lasting bear market bounce – it makes sense that the blue chips would get hammered at this stage.

    Evil Speculator is a great site. Much Kudos to you and Berk.

  • reinhj

    I can't speak for everyone, but I know I'm still trying to figure out how to trade the zero. It's been around for a week and is in round 2 of development plus I know I have indicators streaming on my screen. The zero is accessed a little differently than what most people are used to. I mentioned it before but what will help the zero take off are more definted rules around trading it. If you go by the 1.0 version and wait fora +/- 1 confirmation, you wouldn't have gotten there on the 1 hour as I look at it right now. So with that said are the “rules” around 2.0 different? Since tomorrow is a nothing day for me and there could be some serious swings, I'll make an effort to try and paper trade it with a couple different sets of rules and see where I get.

    As far as your frustration. You've obviously selected the correct music, just go with that. Everyone has already pointed out that places like slope are older and for the love of baby jesus, Tim was pointing people to your site and linking to your charts/comments. That should be a pretty big compliment. You'll get there, don't stress about it.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Johnee
    Toss some symbols of these “Blue Chips”
    It is enticing my appetite for chart dissection….Coca cola?, Proctor?

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I give you trades honey!!!

  • benji12

    Mole,

    I think that there's been a lack of recommendations from people because, as you have say, this mkt is way too chopping and is not giving a definite direction. So many are staying on the sidelines and waiting for the confirmation of a direction. As for the zero, from what I read, it has been money. But for me, it's difficult to use because I can't really monitor it very closely because of this BS obligation called work. So i usually check into the mkts every 30 mins or so. The volatility in this mkt is way to crazy for me to make a day trade. Everytime i do, i end up losing.

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Sorry! Fully intended to post a link.

    Atilla's tip was to look at what Janus' Blue chip funds were heavily into and short those.

    Thanks to commenter 'goldismoney', here is a great link to a site that gives the low-down on what all the funds are holding and a whole lot more. This link is specifically for Janus but if you go back to the main page you can find out about any fund you like.

    http://www.mffais.com/funds/94460/

    Note: The above looks like a list of holdings across all Janus' funds. If anyone can tell me which of Janus' funds are the conservative ones, that kind of 'giving back' would be rewarded with some points up.

    List of all funds (including Janus' individual funds) is here:

    http://www.mffais.com/funds/j.html

  • eg

    mole i am an old newby trying to learn but i recognize hard work and exellence when i see it. thanks i will try to contribute when i am able, excellent article on apple @afraid to trade is this kosher? i too am confused by shout outs

  • nepharis

    Mole,
    I really like what you do here. I love reading your posts, and the Zero is pretty excellent; I'll definitely pay for it when you take it to that step. I wish I had more to offer in return, but I'm pretty new to trading. I started late August, just in time to get completely burned (heavily invested in ESLR, which tanked due to LEH going under). Recently been getting acquainted with more technical analysis, thanks to you, Slope, and AfraidToTrade. What I don't have right now is a good set of stocks to look at, or much time during the day (I'm an engineer in my non-trading life). I hope to contribute more as I get a better feel for everything, but until then I'm just another leech.
    Cheers

  • VicThriver

    Love your site, man. Like several others here I am a mere leech for the time being, offering nothing back but reading everything you put out and trading some indicators very conservatively. I agree with what some say, takes time, but people and discussions will get better. I in fact follow your trends more closely than TimK's.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    As Johnee mentioned Blue Chips, I remembered interview I watched from a link posted on SOH a few days ago….
    This is an interview with Jeremy Grantham. A rare event indeed…
    I consider this to be one of the, if not the, best compressed wisdom given by any professional money man…
    Please pay attention to details as to how open, and quick Mr. Grantham is to admit possible mis perception with his own opinions.
    How easily he stretches the possibilities to either direction, and how simple and sincere he is as he passes his thoughts.
    I would recommend this to every investor, trader and speculator….Amazing….

    http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpi

  • ZigZag

    Thanks Royal..I got that one bookmarked.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    video not there

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    OK… one more thing.

    Checkout GOOG on a 60day/60min chart. Todays action was choppy and overlapping and it looks like it's merely trying to groan upwards to fill the open gap just above current levels.

    From an EW perspective, that means more downside. So this is a nice low risk gap-fade play. But the potential for a lot of downside juice is there – take a look at action coming out of the triangle and trendchannels on the daily chart.

    Sorry no time to post a chart. Back to my dayjob….

  • Dave

    Mole you are a great writer and obviously seem to have a solid handle on the market. I read 20+ blogs daily and yours is always the first I pull up. The charts are exceptional/ second to none. The Zero? Well. what can I say– been at it many years and have my favorites… There's some pretty darn good indicators out there… After I watch Zero for at least weeks or probably months I might incorporate it into the plan (doubtful)…. Paper trading? Ha, no thanks!

    I expect a very violent move in the market tomorrow (even by new found standards). There is an avalanche of hedge fund redemption accelerating wildly and I think it comes to a head– NOW. I'm guessing the powers to be will counter with decent unemployment lie/report, imediate car bailout etc. I have no directional conviction, just super crazy.

    Keep up the good work IF you enjoy it… Otherwise you should write a book imo… I'd be the first to buy it.

    ps– you site compared to slope? are you kidding??

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3
  • FerdtheMoonCat

    mole, kudos again on great work here. Checked the zero around noon just to confirm chucking my SSO for small SDS position and am glad I did. Goofy market means lots of watchers. Continue to wonder why we don't really blast thru that 800-840 box (20 Nov was an aberration) and watching the wedge since, agog. Keep firing, ur brewing a mighty wind here!
    Ferd

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Good post.

    If anyone can find a link to the audio/video of the lecture he just gave this week, that would be worth it's weight in leech poison. πŸ˜‰

    He spoke at the 11th Annual Lynford Lecture at NYU. I've tried tweaking Google's nipples every which way, but no luck yet. It appears that vimeo.com hosts the 10th Lynford Lecture. Maybe that's where they'll eventually post the 11th??? Who knows, but I can't find anything yet.

    Apparently this latest presentation by Jeremy was dynamite. I think Atilla was there.

  • Royal With Cheese

    πŸ˜‰

  • LgSarge

    Just came on board a few days ago and am just now starting to understand what you are doing with zero. Don't bail now dude. Your hard work and info is much appreciated. This F—– up market has everyone's head spinning. Take a deep breath and a few shots of jack. It will be better in the morning.

  • molecool

    “you site compared to slope? are you kidding??”

    Hey, one can aspire, right? πŸ˜‰

    Totally understand about giving it time – I'm sure you've seen indicators come and go. I'm confident this one will stand the test of time.

  • molecool

    You are one of the few….

  • molecool

    I looked at the real housing index today and boy was it tanking…

  • molecool

    Habe nichts gegen Schweizer Kaese πŸ™‚

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    I think the idea behind seeing blue chips getting hammered is that mutual funds tend to hold leadership names, and when Joe Public has finally taken enough pain to liquidate their mutual funds and 401(k) plans, these are hammered.

    If this is the case, I would suspect that we would normally see divergences between, say the $OEX and the $SPX, just as we see the Naz and the $RUT indicate the end of a move down by dropping at a lower percentage than the S&P. I'll research this after dinner and see if I can come up with something.

  • Trader Jose

    Dr. Evil,

    I'm new to your site. Found out about it on the Slope (which I check occasionally) and I'm with you re. much of the lame chit-chat that goes on in the name of trading over there. I'll be spending a lot more time here now that I know you exist.

    Unfortunately I'm new to trading (though I've been in the investment business on the buy side for a long time). That said, I work at it 14 – 16 hours every day and am learning fast. I'm excited about your site because I know I can learn a lot here.

    Because I'm new I don't demonstrate my stupidity by opening my mouth everytime I have something to say unless it is worth saying … like the steel rat. But like the blind hog, every once in a while I do find an acorn and when I do I share it with everyone.

    Right now I think the key determinant as to what happens with equities and or commodities is the USD because a stronger dollar means foreign buyers can't buy as much of anything so US prices go down and a declining dollar means they can buy more, so US prices go up.

    There is a declining EUR/USD trendline that goes back to September (look at the EUR/USD daily) reflecting the recent dollars' strength. That same trendline is present in the commodities and equities markets and is a result of the strength of the USD.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-chart

    After the huge USD run-up there is consolidation going on between 1.233 and 1.33 EUR/USD – has been since mid October. When you combine the declining trendline and the bottom of the consolidation together they form a triangle. The euro has tried busting out to the upside of the 3angle several times but failed, so it is still in a bear market and it is right up against resistance. Conversely the dollar may be consolidating but is still in a bull market and it is not at resistance.

    When the dollar breaks out of this range (either to the upside or downside) commodities and equities will go in the opposite direction. From the look of things we won't have to wait long, maybe a matter of days, before all hell breaks loose.

    Jose

    PS – Your website is great and has great content. Thanks. Where do I go to learn more about Zero 1 and 2?

  • etechpartner

    Will try to do better in the future. At the moment I am in a little bit of limbo. Held TZA for an hour today and made 12%. Which in my book was great considering the tape in the past 3 days.

    I am looking at 3x ETF's as potentially more lucrative than ES and definetly easier than options right now. Seriously. I think ES is about $10 per point right? So if I split the diff between the cost of 1 contract of ES and what I could have traded in TZA for the exact same period I would have gotten $300 on the ES and $400 on TZA – and I would still have some capital left on the side.

    This is an off the cuff comparisons of points dropped and percentages gained for the roughly hour or so that I was in the market. Your mileage may vary.

  • Trader Jose

    Molecool,

    Thanks for the quick response. I’m really excited to learn from you, from your site, and all about Zero.

    Seriously, while I think Tim K. is great, I think you offer a more analytical approach to trading which addresses gaps in my knowledge that the Slope does not. Keep that in mind because “where there is one there are many”, in other words, Evil.Speculator meets the needs of a constituency that Slope does not and you can build off that.

    Anyway, thanks very much … I will head off to the tutorial and come back to you with any questions.

    Peace,

    John

    PS – If you trade DUG or any other O&G instrument, you may want to take a look at using $DJUSEN as a guide. It’s a much better guide than XLE is for trading purposes. Furthermore, it broke resistance at 400 today and bounced off another resistance line at roughly 384 late in the day. If it breaks 384 the next support is 315, making for an nice trade in DUG.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  • etechpartner

    Dave – for some reason I thought the hedgies had redeemed a bunch of stuff already and were hoping to wait it out. Saw some reports of them putting obstacles in peoples way who request redemption. Didnt we have the last day to request redemptions a few days back? The reports floating around that day made me think that this activity was already accounted for by the market. Maybe I am wrong there….

  • ZigZag

    Thanks Johnee…GOOG sure looks like a good one here…

    http://tinyurl.com/6s56hp

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    You can sort on the current value tab to get the largest holdings by market cap, which would be CSCO, XOM, MSFT, UNH, ORCL, CELG, HES, GOOG,DNA, HPQ,UPS, JPM, etc. Looks like they're heavily into tech infrastructure, integrated oil and biotech from a quick scan of the list.

  • tradingaces

    Shorted XOM at open around 78.5 today. Don't have a chart to post but if you pull one up (10 min or daily) it speaks for itself. Should be good for 71 short term and long term target of 0. Good luck!

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    I was gonna say last night at 2 a.m. here on right coast: “Thought you said you wouldn't update tonight, but you just really couldn't resist letting us go out there in the cold.” ;D

    You told me one time 10/10: “Yes, takes me a few hours to do it – but I love it. And I can't send you boys and girls out there into battle without the right armor and a box full bullets. It's war out there, dress warm.”
    I've noticed lately [past few weeks] quite a few lurkers have been coming out just to say how they appreciate you.
    Some Slopers have been coming here w/out leaving any comment bec when I mention EVL there, they say they already come here….

    Everything's appreciated so much, just not been saying it lately bec I think I'd sound like a broken recording by now, lol.
    When I get to visit my folks in Rancho Mirage, I'll meet ya at those strip joints & give you a special treat. No I don't do stripping, sorry, lol. But my folks will spend winter this year in SD/NE instead of Cali, so maybe next year ;D

    I had a few trades I could've posted up: such as POT, OIH, DIG but I was on the road all day workin & I don't know if I can do Jing that easy with my Crackberry.

    Way to Go, Molecool & Berkshire!!!

  • molecool

    I'm not worried about Tim-ay – he's a supporter – and I wasn't complaining about HIM. Would he post here I'd be inundated with symbols.

    Per the system – yeah, I give you that about the +/- 1 rule. I wanted to make it safe for the leeches, but obviously we are in a whippy market and sometimes it might be a good idea to jump in early. That's what the 30min is for.

    I'll update the tutorial over the weekend to make sure there are no misunderstandings.

  • molecool

    “Where do I go to learn more about Zero 1 and 2?”

    First up, thanks for the kind words. Secondly, all the info that you should need is here:

    https://evilspeculator.com/?page_id=2472#instruc

    Tutorial is brief but to the point. Please let me know if anything is unclear.

  • molecool

    “No I don't do stripping, sorry, lol.”

    Damn it! I just dropped my special lap dance pants at the cleaners!

  • Scoops

    ES is 12.50 for a quarter point which equals to 50 bucks a point.

  • etechpartner

    Yep I heard about that after the fact. Thanks for the reply. So much for my bright idea. Oh well.

  • tradingaces

    don't forget the tax advantages of ES though – that can be worth a lot of $.

  • grednfer

    Evil…..
    I use the zero thing as another data point for my currently bi-polar trading. I'm selling the top of the S&P channel, which today was mildly in the retracement zone and intersected with the Obama wedge (11/4)……and as YOU pointed out we're in an uptrend (for now) so I'm buying the bottom of the channel…….the buy volumes are bigger at the bottom of the channel…..which is still groovin.

    To further my bi-polar”ism” I actually trade the IWM using the S&P data…..IWM because it moves more…..up and down and S&P data is just more reliable……puts this morning and UWM at the bottom of the channel.
    And the puts made more than 20%……so….its all good.

    And then you post that weird music……..WTH is that stuff. But I actually watched a few more of the vdos……I like the one where he's ON FIRE!

    I'm still having fun!….

    PS You could be like the OTHER site and just not respond.

  • Duuuuuude

    I made 2-3 posts today, but did so while I was on the road. (no, I pulled off the road between appointments to check in) Anyway, I will be more available next week, and depending on the volitility, plan to trade. I am hoping to catch a wave higher or lower without getting whipsawed out.

    On the posts I made today, I was commenting on how the CCI gave the proper sell/buy signals on the Dow 30 on those two last moves of the day. It seems to throw the best correlations these days using a 2 day chart. http://screencast.com/t/jdS7dofwR

  • rhae

    I am new here and wanted to get the lay of the land before posting, I find the zero line helpful. I am currently trading SSO and SDS, the 2X $SPX ETF derivitives. I use the SPY for signals . I find SSO and SDS a little to jumpy…
    You have the $SPX well covered,

    I like putting the the RTL lines on my own charts. Even tho the one I am posting is the 60m timeframe, I jdrill down to the shortest timeframes for actual entry and exit points.

    The Zero Line is very helpful in providing an extra heads up… When everything gets close, I have my wife wake me up……….

    I guess everyone get the Retracement values by email? So already I am set for tomorrow, at least I know where the sign posts are…. and will be keeping an eye on the zero line….

    http://h1.ripway.com/jaker/SPY%2060m%20Dec%204.gif

  • geckoman

    Here's the deal You like these I want to know….you think it's dog shit well I want to know that too,

    First up – I posted this earlier. But please go find me a country ETF that has a good chart…ok let me show you. It's called CAF. FXI aint bad either but I can't figure out what the F' it tracks. Now look at these two charts and tell me what you see. First is the Point and Figure. It's also on an RS buyvs. the SPX.

    http://tinyurl.com/5pwlzz

    I am currently short Wells Fargo. It present a fake breakout today and reversed right at a Fib retracement. I wasn't buying the breakout so I bought puts after the rejection.

    http://tinyurl.com/6ostdj

    Since I am partial to ETF's here is what I think is the strongest one right now. Kida like best of the worse but hey it's above it's 50 DMA and that says something. Plus it offers a 6.5% divy if that matters.: (IXP)

    http://tinyurl.com/5pbmg8

  • Michael Ricelli

    Been scalping SRS lately. Trades slow, and then very fast. I set my EMA at 9 and 34. and look for the cross. I usually wait for a short time to confirm and hop in. Quick stuff. I don't trust this market any more. Gone are June and July when you could buy puts and hold them. Some prefer the SKF, but I have just gotten use to SRS. I no longer look for the 30 point gain days. 5, 6 maybe 8 and I am out. I usually trade in 100 share lots. I am curious as to how anyone else sets up their EMA/SMA.

  • rhae

    Not sure about the chart…. anyway if not, I put everything on my own charts

  • geckoman

    Been using the 3 EMA and 20 EMA on a 60 minute chart. It's not as whippy as when I was doing it on a 30 min and keeps me in a trade a little longer.

  • reinhj

    I think we've got some time. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that things aren't going to settle down any time soon.

    On a side note, any good books on EWT? I'm only understanding a portion of some of the graphs here and their markings and I'd like to get a better understanding. So any suggestions from the smart folks here?

  • http://www.slopeofhope.com Tim Knight

    I feel your pain. Just wait until you get popular enough that people start shitting on you. It's awesome.

  • geckoman

    Thanks, you will have to explai to me what type of wave theory you are using. Looks cool though.

  • ZigZag

    Gecko, I like these! WFC has some serious potential here. If A=C that would be around $15..

    http://tinyurl.com/6ak5ew

  • bergs

    Go to this website.
    http://www.elliottwave.com/
    You can click on the free tab. Then join the EWI club(free) They have some great tutorials on the EWT. Or off the main page click the store tab then books in left column. Scroll down to :
    Elliott Wave Principle

    by Robert R. Prechter, Jr.& A.J. Frost

    He is the Guru!

  • de3600

    Speaking from a guy with no conviction :)you gotta love people if you dont know someone came out and attack tim the otherday

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I even did the analysis in yours and berk's stead last night. FOR FREE. πŸ˜‰
    But you're right…I need to vent less and focus more, as do many.
    +1 — just because, dammit.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    OK, I took a look over this and decided that the Wilshire index was probably a better measuring stick than the S&P, which is all large caps. I figured that the blue chips would be better represented in the S&P 100 (the OEX) than in the Wilshire, and the OEX should show relative weakness to the S&P in a wave 5 down. I also thought that the Dow 30 (the INDU) should show relative weakness at the same time. (The blue line is the ratio of the OEX to the Wilshire, and the Green line is the ratio of the Dow to the Wilshire.)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&b=1&g

    I found that the OEX showed drops relative to the Wilshire towards the end of the drop in 2002 and both the OEX and the Dow dropped relative to the Wilshire towards the end of 1987 crash. (The bulk of the drop in relative strength was AFTER the crash had ended.) I also found that the big drops relative to the Wilshire came during the early phases of major waves, which makes sense to me — I can see investors shedding the blue chips in favor of higher beta stocks when the market is moving up and moving back into the blue chips as part of a flight to quality when the market starts to turn down.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Next time you're at the noody bar, you should tell her, “I'm gonna short your panties cuz they're goin' down!”

  • TraitorTrader

    I really dig this blog, and I subscribe to it in my RSS reader. Today I had the zero indicator opened and I used it (mostly to convince me to stay in SDS today).

    You and Berk have a great thing here, and it will grow. It took 5 years before I was getting any reasonable traffic on my site.

    Stainless rat all the way, baby.

  • etechpartner

    the more i look the more reasons people give me to trade ES. Funny.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    I had my first chance to play around with the Zero in real time today. Looking over the past few days showed me that it provided a really good signal. I entered trades when my own personal radar and techniques told me that it would be a good idea (fib ratios, resistance, trendlines, etc.) ONLY if the Zero indicator indicated that the trade was moving in my direction. I exited the trades when the ZERO turned blue, indicating a possible move in the other direction. I'm pleased to say that things went really well and kept me from being whipsawed a few times.

  • buylo

    Newbie here, thank you and Berk for all the effort and insight you put in daily, been following yous guys since your SOH days, can honestly say I get a better feel for the market here, ST or LT trends, entry exit, etc., etc. I was just wondering, when you do up-date the Instructions for your “zero” indicator, can you please also explain what those blue, green and red squigly lines mean? (long SDS, TWM, FAZ) Guten Abend, gute Nacht you all.

  • tradingaces

    SRS going to 170. Its an inverse of IYR- IYR had a perfect bounce off Sept. downtrend line & will retest lows. Inverse H&S not confirmed at close.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    I'll second what Bergs said, although I'll take Berk's EWT analysis here over Hochberg's stuff at EWI. (The nature of EWT is that there are almost always a few competing alternatives, and I feel that Berk does a much better job of discussing all the possibilities, although I subscribe to EWI and consider it money well spent.) Johneeboy3 has great EWT skills and he posts here and over at xtrends too.

    The Elliott Wave Principle book is the definitive text, as far as I've found. I'd recommend it to anyone, even if they don't plan on using EWT, because it does such a good job of explaining how the markets move.

  • Anon

    I daytrade only two stock, TZA TNA. 3x levered RUT ETFs. RUT follow SPX action close, so not much I can give you other than new perspective on your own charts. Call it red team.

    You know we love you, but better ways to ask for more analysis. You not want reputation like Mariah Carey.

  • Mark

    I thought I'd write in to say that I read your blog, and that I haven't offered up any comments because, quite frankly, I often don't know what the hell you're writing about. Now that is my problem, not yours, and I continue to read because I think that over time I'll start to piece it together. If I were you, then I think I'd be frustrated as well. In any case, thanks for your efforts.

  • Jimbo

    Moe – 1st time posting, been lurching for a month or so. I've been trading options for several years now, but never had a “coach”. I just want you to know your site is invaluable to guys like us. Not to “copy” others trades & such, but to learn how some of the “10 percenters” think. I know I've spent enuf time & paid my dues being in the other 90%. I won't be a regular here, as I'm still working sporadic hours in the trucking business.

    I discovered your site after learning about the SOH site thru TOS, and it seems that between you two, ya “got the block covered”.
    I'm a swing trader, so not so interested in the futures – but maybe some day? The work you do is surely draining at times, but I can tell you love it! The programming part reminds me of myself 100 yrs ago, in a Cobol shop. How's that for dating myself ?? Try not
    to burn yourself out, and keep up the tremendous work your doing here!

  • gagelle

    Panic in CDS Market to Cause Next Collapse in Equities

    http://tinyurl.com/632h9z
    [Open in new window]

  • http://groups.google.com/grphp?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8 MarketM

    I will swing by this spot more often. I always have good chart as well as market commentary.

  • balljet

    MOLE, My humble apologies… read a lot but don't contribute a lot!! Mea culpa!

  • buylo

    Anon, I was wondering if you would share some of the indicators you use to day trade TZA n TNA? I don't know TA very well and so sometimes trade by the seat of my pants and watch the price and movement, intraday-5min, MA, BB. I guess what I'm trying to ask if there are better ways to make in-out decisions. Your thoughts will be greatly appreciated.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Here are my put candidates for tomorrow: AMZN, CAT, CELG, CLF, COF, GILD, SHLD, and XOM. Here are some charts…
    AMZN – http://screencast.com/t/OVXpoe9L
    CELG – http://screencast.com/t/8y6RImyKN
    COF – http://screencast.com/t/NotCA2xd
    SHLD – http://screencast.com/t/d2U9fnoD
    I have puts on FWLT and UPS and a call on ADM but I feel the path of least resistance for tomorrow is down.

  • gagelle

    “The proposal of any new law or regulation which comes from [businessmen], ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men, whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even to oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it.” –Adam Smith

  • surfferjoe

    I have only recently discovered your Blog and have identified it in my top 10. I have hundreds of stock related sites saved over the past four years and find that only a handful are thoughtful and current. Your 0 line is indeed an interesting tool. I will be paying more attention to that indicator. I am responding now with this post to express my appreciation for all of your hard work. I have never posted before on any site and made a profile just so that I could log in this comment. I do know what you mean about feeling like no one else in contributing as I am a member of a trading group that meets every month. I am the only one most of the time that prepares any information and shares with the group. I have thought many times about not attending any more but I have found that there are always new things that I learn in preparing new information and I like to contribute. Please recognize that the efforts you have put forth here are being read, acted on and are very much appreciated.

  • MarketM

    New account, same MM, I will swing by the place a bit more often.

  • iwanttobelieve

    Hello Mole,

    Realistically speaking, unsubstantiated predictions get posted all of the time on all of the financial blogs I follow. Unless that particular person has a track record (Mr. Atilla eg) I take everything with a grain of salt. That's the “fun” part about blogging, say what the f*ck you want (w/in reason) but “stand out” when you can back it up.

    Your Zero system seems a bit “hair trigger” to me. I prefer to use a simple visual system with the 10, 20, & 100 minute moving average (10 & 20 above the 100 go long, 10 & 20 below – go short). To be fair, the extreme volitatility in the market is probably were the “hair trigger” originates on the Zero system. It's enough to make anybody schitzoid to the upper dregree MAXimus.

    Another system that really gives one a backbone when the F*CKING market makers are running everybody's stops is drawing “stupid” diagonal lines (which I picked up from Mr. Knight's book). Especially with long term lines, it is utterly amazing how the market follows these lines way into the future (eg. try drawing a diagonal from SPY's high at 9/19/08 and 11/5/2008; then compare with today's trading). Now that would be an idea, a larger time frame ZERO system with “stupid” diagonals to prevent oneself from going into convulsions.

    Remember, your ZERO system just came out a couple of days ago. It seems to be fairly idiot proof so I would imagine that a lot of traders are just screwing around with it, trying to see whether or not they will work it into their crock pot of magical trading tools.

    Please keep up the good work!

  • Dave

    Some reports estimate (sit down for this) approx 200 billion Austin Powers Dollars scheduled for immenent redemption– levered yes, so what? Gotta wonder if word on those “obstacles” account for some of the recent panic, er I mean… interest.

  • Reverb

    New leech here. Second the short recommendation on Wells Fargo WFC.

    Stopped buying puts after Lehman blew up because vol premium skied. Now mostly shorting REITs and insurance companies. Gave up QID/QLD trading and looking for a substitute for daily grinding.

    So is the zero algorithm a state secret or can I replicate it?

  • Troy

    Wow, sounds like someone just realized his blog is on the interwebs πŸ™‚

    An awesome blog at that…

  • Jammer63021

    Hi Mole. I am not a trader. I have a day job. I do my best to keep watch on the market and read voraciously at night. I must confess the Zero system has taken getting used to and I flip to it a million times a day to try and correlate it with the market action and get a feel for it. I thank you for a great site and great analysis. Hopefully, some day I will have something worthwhile to give back. What did I do today? My gut feel was down, the trend is down, I waited for favorable daily positions and went short. Sweated heavily as the market rallied but saw the zero holding red on longer term views and held as I saw ES leading the way down with a big spread compared to SPX, and sold out SKF and DGZ at 5 pts up each, holding TWM and MZZ overnight. So now I will sweat to see if we gap up. Oh, and as you can see, I am a fan of the band also. We may actually get a chance to see them in the US in 2009.

  • Eldar Bob

    Mole, I appreciate your work. The chart colors are a bit hard on my eyes.

  • DeepSlackerJazz

    gagelle – nice article. I swing trade, so this kind of stuff is the meat I feed on.

    mole and berk – much thanks for a great site. I'm a newbie – been trading for 9 months, up 300% so far this year mostly buying and holding puts (stocks, etfs and indexes) for a few days/weeks, and your site is one of the main sites I hover over each day, watching and learning. Wish I had more to contribute to the gang, but I figure I'll keep my acid trap shut until I have something useful to offer in real-time.

    Like a lot of others have said, keep on keepin' on – you are truly appreciated.

  • ZigZag

    I'm using an older software version from elliottician.com I use it with other indicators for finding potential zigzag wave patterns. I've had pretty good success with it so far..

  • DJ

    Do you use 3 and 13 ema on 1 d 60 min chart?

  • molecool

    “Unless that particular person has a track record (Mr. Atilla eg) I take everything with a grain of salt.”

    I have only been spot on calling the market for what… since I started this blog?

    Appreciate your comments regarding the zero though – just keep looking at it and let's see if it can earn your trust over time.

  • DJ

    Do you use 10, 20, & 100 minute moving average logic on 1d 1 min chart? I have played with MA's but it works only if there is upward or downward trend, if chart is just consolidating, you get whipsawed from both sides because direction of trend is not clear. What do you do in that case?

  • molecool

    Thanks Jimbo – I actually did some Cobol back in 1999 for Y2K remediation. Man, I can't believe it's almost been a decade since that bubble….

  • molecool

    LMAO – thanks mate. I don't know how you keep such an tight ship over there. I continue to marvel at the top quality you produce on a constant basis – something to live up to.

  • DJ

    Tomorrow: We all know that job market report may come very bad tomorrow but on the other hand govt may bailout 3 or 2 (Ford and GM) auto makers. Looking at 2SWEETIES RL's level, market did not go really below 840 today and closed above 840, so I am feeling that market is bullish due to Govt. bailouts. Remmeber all the past bailouts produced bear market rallies. I am hoping for that again which some of you on this blog and on Slope are talking about. I am going short the dollar, PIMCO said pound has bottomed. DIG is your friend. I am eagerly waiting for market to go to 950-1000 levels and then short it. 2SWEETIES weekly RL good shorting level is 950 too.

  • DJ

    Mole, regarding ZERO. I think it is great. I am not saying that because of yoru post. I have been contributing for few days since I joined few days ago. Is it possible that you can generate 3 pages rather than squeezing all 3 charts on 1 page. Lots of things are not readable . png file does not display good on IE somehow.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Thanks

  • gagelle

    Thanks DeepSlaker. I've only been trading for about 6 months, so I can't contribute much in the way of technical analysis. To make matters worse, my interest is in economics and history, so it's hard for me to have faith in a chart without looking at the whole macroeconomic and political situation. But there are many highly skilled technicians on this blog from whom I've learned quite a bit in the short time I've been trading. And I've grown more convinced that technical analysis works, although, in my opinion, it's an art that takes years to become proficient in.

  • ProZachJ

    Here is my daily setup on USDJPY Retracement levels:

    http://screencast.com/t/PZ3GTzlM

    And for those interested in how it looks when I am actually trading it:

    http://screencast.com/t/rhPeQprQk

    I keep the daily on the bottom so I don't forget where I am in the scheme of things, plus I need it to do my retracement setups on my 60min chart every night. For entry and exit triggering I am using the 5min chart with an EMA(5) and a slow stochastic with my own setting (5,3,5) instead of the usual (5,5,3). My setup is that the 5min chart respects the retracement level, with a 5min and 60min stochastic both oversold(long)/overbought(short). My trigger is an exiting crossover in the 5min and closing above(long) below(short) the EMA(5), although I really like it when I can get an exiting crossover in both the 5min and the 60min. Once I'm in I just scale out like 2sweeties tells me to and its all golden boy.

    Oh yea! since I just got jing and I am having fun using it. Check out my long calculator today! Giving all the rats the finger!

    http://screencast.com/t/bS6BvnPRird

    Needless to say I was pretty confident getting long at 92.10! This could bode well for US equities tomorrow.

  • ZigZag

    Ukla, AMZN and COF look REALLY good! AMZN is on the left, and it came in with highest rating….

    http://tinyurl.com/6e66da

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    It will take time for it to come out. But it will. +10 for you and T.B bringing it up.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    (((Mole)))

    How I wish to be a steel rat…hell, even just being a rat would be nice. I'm only a steel leech, but a happy one. Because of you and Berk I have been able to get back all the money I lost last year. I will be forever grateful to you guys for your valuable teachings here. I am far too intimidated to post my opinions on anything yet, as I am still a student of these market shenanagins. I vow to be a contributor soon.

    FWIW, I have been playing only ETF's and I've been holding calls on SRS, SKF and FXP for two weeks. I have grown a pair of steel balls this past two weeks. I cannot wait to start trading using your zero indicator.

    I do spend hours on end researching the web for news, especially news that is not in MSM. I will start posting interesting links as I find them.

    Thanks again for all you do. Once your blog becomes subscription, I will be your first subscriber.

    Jan

  • Anonymous

    Anon, thank you for your reply.

  • iwanttobelieve

    In situations where I am getting “whipped sawed” around, I then defer to the nearest trend line. The earlier part of the today's trading on the SPY is a good example. Although the 10 & 20 bounced up a lot above the 100 MA during the first half of the day, a very prominent descending diagonal line (starting for me back from Sept.) was descending through the trading day. The market tried to defeat the same diagonal last Friday but was unable to. The message to me was, “don't go long stupid head.”

    I guess you have to pick & choose your tools from the crock pot as to what appears appropriate.

  • iwanttobelieve

    Sorry for my utterly callous and thoughtless comment. I thought you were looking for more meaningfull and meaningless commentary:-(

  • Mr_Lahey

    I will trade Zero with my TOS papermoney account and give you feedback here, entry, exit, profits made, all the good stuff. I did provide a pick, Dec JPM Puts at $32 on the underlying. That trade worked out very nice. Hope you get to feeling better.

  • Anon

    I not best to ask, as I only successful about 65% of time. Rely almost exclusively on simple indicators — resistance/support levels and volume on IWM (RUT ETF). Trying to use zero for confirmation, but have to build trust first.

  • Anon

    what you say? tim knight is whore!

  • molecool

    I'm not asking, pal – I'm demanding.

  • molecool

    “So is the zero algorithm a state secret or can I replicate it?”

    You can try…

  • molecool

    Wear sunglasses – but thanks πŸ˜‰

  • molecool

    Have you tried Firefox? Much better browser – and more secure. Plus it has tabs.

    IE sucks blocks.

  • molecool

    NICE – now we're talking.

    Hey, what charting app is this? Looks sweet.

  • ProZachJ

    it is FXCMs forex suite…it's free but is forex exclusive as far as I have been able to tell. When I was trading equities I was using quotetracker.

  • Armagedon

    Hi Mole, Your blog is one of the few that I visit daily.
    I enjoy your commentary as much as I enjoy Tim Knights. However, I prefer your analysis more than Tim's because you don't just give charts – you also give us leading indicators such as Baltic Dry Ship Index. This is lacking from TK's blog. I am not a day trader and don't rely too much on charts. I was able to make over 600% in one account in one year by buying and holding a lot of PUTs on banks and real estate companies etc. I currently hold PUT optionss on GS, MS, JPM, WFC, BAC, PNC, UPS, PG, GIS. Most of my positions are in FXP, EFU, SKF and SRS.
    Your trading ideas confirmed some things I learned from experience – for example – to not buy options due to high Volatility (e.g. VIX), but it was great to be reminded over and over again.
    I have been leeching, but hope I contributed some ideas tonight.

  • Armagedon

    thanks for that link. One of the best blogs I have seen: http://www.gotoguy.com/

    There must be a penalty for Helicopter Ben to print all that USD. It's called “Credit Default Costs” and it is Skyrocketing for USA. See http://www.gotoguy.com/

  • geckoman

    60 day 60 min chart. I have only switched to this long of a time frame the past week or so as I was getting tired of getting chopped up. I am sure most day traders prefer something shorter but I have always been more comfortable as a swing trader.

  • DJ

    thanks

  • minion of the ppt

    The only thing that really matters is to understand when wave 4 ends – hourly posting of symbols is noise to calm down the nerves. Activity is not an aim, patience will be rewarded.

  • http://www.tradewithpros.com CA

    You are right, it is a really good blog. They are relatively new as well. I like your name name by the way hah.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    You guys always crack me up!!!

  • JZT_CHIL

    You guys always crack me up!!!