Late Start

Berk here

Got a few charts that I will start laying out (and asking you to refresh) but I like to get a road map out first…

$DJI because it was open

As you can see, I am expecting a final push into at least 10409 (where wave 1 = wave 5 due to a 3rd wave extension).  There is some room for error and a push into the 10450-10500 range, but that should really do it…

A little volume chart showing the obvious.  A break-out in volume and a price break-out = short-term long…  The lowest horizontal line is the lowest volume of the past 20(+) days.  The second blue line is the second lowest (minus the past 3 days (where we dropped) for effect).  The third blue line, the one with the arrow that I never finished, is moderately high volume.

SPX volume and price.

I’ll be back in a bit with a couple of longer term indicators and some good looking stocks in a minute.

As I had metioned a while back with my browser death charts (you know, when I said that we could be looking at as much as another 2 months of this shit, yeah, well here we are.) that we should see some divergences line up in the long term indicators.  Since the $INDU is leading the charge, I checked a BP on it, and low and behold, a likely double-divergent top set-up!

$INDU BP showing a nice double divergence...

$SPXA50R is looking pretty divergent too.  These are quality market internals just asking for a reversal…

$SPXA50R flashing a strong divergence...

The longer term $SPXA200R is bear porn…  Pehaps we do need a category.  Double divergence on the 10day.  20day starting to trend down.  50day is flat and shouldn’t move much higher.  Now for the bear porn part.  Notice that ALL the MAs are still above 90%.  I clipped the chart at the bottom, so you can only see it down into the 20s, but let me let you in on a little secret…  ALL those MAs stayed below the 10% level for 6 months during the last move down…

Bear Porn

This chart is pretty telling.  $NYA made an equal high (yes, not a new high, as that would have made this chart actually jump out and punch me), but as you can see, the internals DO NOT support that.  With 66% less stocks making a new high and the market at equal highs, we have yet another internal screaming top…

God this is pretty...

Final chart for the moment before I go scan some equities looking for a TT entry is the $NYAD.  As you can see.  Momentum could never really push past that first high in the rally.  We hit that level 2 other times in the rally, but are backing off hard now.  I would be looking for this top to signal no higher than 700 on the 10day (which would be huge) and likely to the downtrending arrow, somewhere in the 400-500 range.

Things really starting to shape up...

That it for now.

2:00pm EDT: Mole here: Might as well throw one of my esoteric ones into the mix:

Actually, I’m not exactly sure what this means – have been watching this chart with bemusement for months now. What really hit me however was the 10 day drop that wiped out three separate MAs after it took them over three months to push up this high. What’s interesting also is that the 21 day is still dropping and that we are way below the peaks on all three MAs despite the fact we made new highs. Again, it’s a strange chart but I thought I’d post it so that you guys can chime in. Let’s kick those braincells into high gear before this place turns into another chat room again – ahem 😉

Chart of the day – no comment necessary. Just rub your two IQ points together hard until sparks start flying.

4:30pm EDT: Bonus clip:

Have a great weekend everyone!