Let’s Get Busy!

Yes, the tape sucks today but not all is lost as we are inching toward some setups to sink our rodent teeth into. Let’s first review the situation on the equities side and then move over to commodities and FX as usual:

First our volume profile chart – and given the spasmodic signal on the Zero today there’s little surprise that we pushed into that old volume hole and then bounced right back. A touch of 1330 is a great short opportunity with a stop only a few ticks away. As soon as we breach above 1330 volume is picking up quite a bit so I would have no compunction about flipping this sucker.

But wait – there is more! Right near that volume hole we also have a NLBL, providing further confirmation – either on a bounce back or a breach. Please note the support pattern on the hourly panel and the resistance on the daily (again coinciding with the volume hole). At least for now we have a bit of order in our trading universe. But be cautious as that may break down quickly tomorrow – I recommend you keep your exposure very small.

Alright – on to the setups – please step into my sunny summer lair:

Let’s start with the FX side – I only have one today and it’s the AUD/USD. And it’s another inside day – we had plenty of those lately. As we are far outside the 100-day BB I am personally not interested in a downside breach. But that’s only me – the odds here are actually still fifty:fifty in my not so humble opinion. Oversold conditions on commodities and forex can sustain for quite some time. And there are plenty of examples of that across the Forex space right now.

Gold is at an interesting juncture. We have reasonable (and already tested) support near the lower 100-day BB and at the same time resistance near the 100-hour SMA. We seem to be painting a floor but can’t be sure of course. However, then there’s this:

Another inside day – and I think we may even have a Retest Variation Buy setup already in progress here. If you are confused about all that then please check the cheat sheet.

Silver in a similar formation – why not play both? Right – I don’t see a reason either.

And here’s a little goodie you may enjoy – coffee futures are in a inside/inside day formation. I guess you know what to do.

And yet another inside/inside day formation on crude – actually this is one of my favorite setups right now. As we are also far outside the lower 100-day BB line I would love to see a long breach here followed by a short squeeze.

Keep it frosty and don’t over think it, my intrepid steel rats! I was perusing the comment thread and some of you guys seem to be spending a tad too much time thinking about the news. Just stick with the setups and don’t mind the noise. Stick to what you have control over and then focus on what you know, which is price. Prices do lie sometimes but they are always right in the end – that little mind bender ought to keep you busy over the long weekend 😉

Public Service Announcement: In case you have been trading out of a cave – Monday is an NYSE holiday so there won’t be a post as I’ll be kicking it like all of you yanks. Actually I’ll get an extra kick out of watching everyone work here in Spain.

Cheers,