Meh…

UPDATE 2:08pm EDT: I wish I had something intelligent to contribute today but this tape is a bit like watching paint dry:

I continue to urge caution in regards to playing the short side. We seem to be slowly burning stochastic momentum until the bulls are ready to kick this thing into 4th gear again. If you are short the market I would recommend closing up shop by the sound of the bell today. Of course I could be wrong and this could turn out to be topping action, but as I mentioned previously – the wave count still looks a bit incomplete and I think 930 may be in the cards before we take a meaningful plunge to the downside.

However, I don’t want to fall in love with my own analysis – here’s the current 2-hr index stochastic grid. The uncle point is slowly approaching – as you might make out there has been some sort of diagonal support line in the stochastic signal. If we drop below that by much it could spell the finale of the climb off the lows on April 21st (which was the bottom of the triangle’s Minute {a} wave).

Let’s see what the close brings – if we see selling accelerate it could be a first signal that a meaningful sell off is in the making (thus explaining the put activity in the Spiders). If we bounce in the usual gotcha-fashion then probabilities continue to favor the upside.

UPDATE 2:13pm EDT: Boy, it’s slow in here today and nobody seems to be sharing the love. Anyway, we just cut through the NQ’s VWAP (1414.5) like a hot knife through butter – looks like someone is strategically trying to bang the tape higher here. Right now we bounced off the center pivot and the ES is trying to push through its VWAP as well (899). I am starting to see higher highs and higher lows on the 1min chart and for the down slide to continue I think we need to fail the NQ VWAP in the next 30 minutes. If the bulls can hold this one I think the bears are in line for another ass raping.

For the record – I would encourage you rats to just watch the tape for a little, especially the index futures. It’s blatantly clear that any downslide continues to be condoned – not forced. The bears are unwilling or incapable of making a stand and any sell offs remain only opportunities for the big players to reload and to take no prisoners once their bear hunting season continues. It’s starting to look like a complete capitulation which tells me that at some point we WILL get that big drop we have been waiting for. Of course when – that is the Million Sheckel question. One might presume that eight up weeks on the NDX ought to be enough but I wouldn’t be suprised to see a ninth one at this point. The boys on bubble vision are doing their part I’m sure.

What I’m saying is this: Be careful and play it small – the odds are horrible at this point. If we pushed through to 930 or even 950 I’d be tempted to grab some puts. But right here? No, siree!

UPDATE 2:25pm EDT: FIGURES – as soon as I’m done typing we get some LONG ASS candles to the downside. So looks like this was only a quick revisit of the VWAP to shake out the hobby bears. Unless we get some counter candles here (wouldn’t be the first time) this could actually turn into an interesting day 🙂