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Mole Goes Korean
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Mole Goes Korean

by The MoleSeptember 8, 2010

I guess I might as well let you guys know now – evil Mole is heading to South Korea this Friday night. My condolences to all you Korean readers as your lovely country will never be the same. Once I’m done establishing prosperity and world peace in the entire region (by making Lil’ Kim an offer he cannot refuse) I am scheduled to return on the 15th. But I don’t think that I’ll be conscious and able to watch the NYSE session until the 16th.

They tell me that connectivity kicks serious butt down there so I will do my very best to post the occasional comment cleaner and an appraisal of the prior session before breakfast (Korea is 13 hours ahead of NYC). Obviously I don’t have all my charts and my entire setup down there so it’ll probably be quick and dirty. Of course now that I’m leaving the tape is probably going to make some major moves – it never fails – LOL 🙂

Quite frankly, I’m super excited as I always wanted to go to Korea. I’m a pretty serious tech nerd and the entire mobile and display industry down there puts the U.S. to shame. Plus I love the language, the food, as well as the people – so this is going to be a big treat for me. If there are any Korean steel rats in Seoul with tips on where to have a good time – you can reach me at admin at evilspeculator [and the dotcom stuff].

Alright – I have a little good news chart for my intrepid subs – here we go:

Yes, only one puny chart tonight – but it’s a good one. The NYSE A/D ratio painted a pretty solid – and reasonably sized – Gothic Church Tower (GTC) fractal at the close. That strongly suggests that we will have some kind of retracement here. However, I want to point out again that the fractal in itself does not predict the magnitude of the ensuing correction – the size of the fractal does not seem to matter either.

I am sure many of you will be tempted to interpret this pattern according to your book’s disposition and I strongly suggest that you resist this urge. The GTC pattern on the A/D panel is a reversal fractal that establishes favorable conditions supporting a drop. Similarly a similar pattern on the bearish D/A panel (the one on the bottom) does the opposite in establishing favorable conditions for a rally – most often after selling exhaustion has set in (i.e. a final 5th wave drop or violent drop to the downside).

The reason why I am wording my interpretation of this pattern (which I discovered btw) in such a fashion is that it has nothing to do with the fabled long term Primary {3} scenario. So take it for what it is and trade accordingly – nothing more and nothing less.

Naeil tto bobsida!

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • chronographics

    Finally maybe we are getting our awaited Euro retracement, hope not too many are expecting it – otherwise you know what will happen…

  • raised_by_wolves

    A Goldman-started rumor that Tyler Durden actually believes has it that there are lots of leveraged Euro longs.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-flow-now-selling-eur-advises-leveraged-accounts-are-caught-wrong-way-eur-collapse

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good luck Mole (not that you need it). I have a feeling that you may be a billionaire within five years.

  • http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/ THEMAXFACTOR

    oh yes he needs all the luck he can get and if he needs help to raise some funds to pay for the trip please let us know

  • http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/ THEMAXFACTOR

    oh yes he needs all the luck he can get and I have a feeling that to pay for the trip he needs to sell a couple more memberships to his curve fitted rubbish

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole wouldn't need any financial help to pay for a trip. It sounds like he needs venture capitalists to mass produce some invention of his that he was showing at a major consumer electronics event.

  • sloth_bear

    Have a good trip there Mole, my wife is of korean origin and if they are all like her, you're gonna have a lot of fun!

    For the food, there is a speciality that I can't recommend enough, the Urechis unicinctus:
    http://tinyurl.com/2wjahhd

    Cheers

  • Bob the Horse

    We all will. QE2 baby.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I could use some financial support to get a photo documentary project kick started. I'm still in the brainstorming phase. I'll let you know when I get the idea written out and a video profile on http://www.kickstarter.com/ uploaded.

    Here's a few of my photos for your viewing pleasure.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/52f92908-2394-4448-9285-410f8be29348/00002058.png

    This one got published in the third edition of The Darkroom Cookbook . . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/51f59d38-d02b-4d42-844a-ec5d9ee25814/00002059.png

    And this one got honorable mention at a juried exhibit at Art Center College of Design, Pasadena, CA . . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/5e2a330f-57ce-452a-843f-dcb56dcf5469/00002060.png

  • raised_by_wolves

    DOW 100,000 baby?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sloth Bear, are you a gourmet cook in addition to a food connoisseur? I made the best chicken noodle soup with beer and some asian spices tonight. Quite the upgrade from dumpster diving for questionable pizza.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Damn, if you used one of those for bait, I wonder what in God's ocean you could catch.

  • sloth_bear

    The little mermaid certainly!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's his film and that added dimension he keeps out of ES

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no… but above 100k median household income that will barely pay the bills

    inflation

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the incursion below euro 1.23 oppened an ugly channel… let's see what happens near 1.25

  • raised_by_wolves

    Like a documentary film or a movie? Or like a solar panel on film material?

  • sloth_bear

    AUD/JPY just touched important trendline.
    Caution, this pair looks resilient and impulsive:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZTYzMDAzNDg

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if you try to read between the lines of hamster speak don't stop at mid-stream, but mole never told nor confirmed anything, neither here nor by mail 😉

  • sloth_bear

    Anyone knows where I can find the list of symbol to type for currencies in TOS, like USD=$DXY?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    in TOS no, in stockcharts it's $X(and 2 letters)

    e.g. euro $XEU, australian dollar $XAD, japonese yen $XJY

  • Bob the Horse

    An update on my chart of bear porn

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MjkwYjNhYTM

  • Bob the Horse

    For insular Americans, here it is with S&P500

    http://www.screencast.com/t/OWQ3YWE3Mz

  • jacksoo

    go to chart view – in the box where u enter the symbol click on the arrows – – brings up a selection of pre-selected charts

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    usd is $dxy, futures are /DX, currencies try: usd/jpy, eur/usd, gbp/usd etc. for jpy try: eur/jpy, gbp/jpy etc.

  • sloth_bear

    Ok, found what I was looking for, thanks all!

  • jacksoo

    thats a big divergence

  • sloth_bear

    It makes my Urechis unicinctus all hard!

  • sloth_bear

    Touched the bottom of the channel on /ES:
    http://screencast.com/t/N2JkZGYzZTAt

  • chronographics

    very cool RBW very cool especially the top one 🙂

  • Hungry_Joe

    AUDUSD now may test the upper side of the wedge that you gave.

  • sloth_bear

    Here is what I have for AUD/USD bear case:
    http://screencast.com/t/YjQyNGZkNGUt

    zoom:
    http://screencast.com/t/NWUxODk3MjI

  • DudePlunger

    This overnight activity is getting pretty weird. I put my stop to take a 1tick profit, 1096.75, it is above the pivot and a few points above where we are currently trading.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Uncle point approaching with regard bearish AUD view. failed to break down through .8780 on my Birthday, now testing 10 month big heavy resistance band between .9200 through .9400. Also has implications for S&P500 as these two are dance partners IMHO.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Same.

  • sloth_bear

    Smells like burning bear fur:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZTRhOGUyOTIt

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    AUDUSD 15 chart price divergence showing up right now. http://tinyurl.com/2a5lkyj. Bat Wing on 15min as well; will soon see.

  • Bob the Horse

    Chat of Obama announcing another bunch of nonsense stimulus – $180bn. Totally meaningless and it won;t go through Congress but hey ho. Just another selling opportunity

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    We need NQ to break down.. Yesterday there were signs – SOX weak..but NQ strong… Bulls are hiding in NQ

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Is that what caused Europe to reverse suddenly and go positive? Obama got the World on a string.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Yep – this is where the rubber meats the rode this thing can't keep holding up and not breaking through – someones gonna burn. Weekly BB's been flat for too long.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Totally BS Bob, just more rhetoric from the kind of it

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Hi kea no it was the Portugal Bond auction went off w/o a bust 🙂

  • Nightwind

    Good call Bob. Are the other PIIG countries showing the same trend?

  • legobear

    Portuguese bond auction

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Mole hi I knew you were going… and happy to see it worked out. If you need any help on ES you know I am a call away 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Hi Bob meant from the KIng of Rhetoric LOL

    can't edit on ES ?

  • legobear

    No wonder really, the buyers got a good deal (assuming Portugal are able to pay them back)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Mole I knew you were going 😉 and happy it worked out. wish I could go w/ya

    if you need any help with anything ESpec while gone I am a phone call away 🙂

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    So conspiracy theory – who really bought those bonds?

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    So they had to be bribed to take them.

  • legobear

    Who knows what's really going on. This piece from zerohedge is pretty enlightening in this regard: http://tinyurl.com/3942jva

  • sloth_bear

    We made it to the top of my weird channel on /ES, let's see if we can pick up some momentum, currencies could help:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZDBlMWIxODUt

  • 99er

    Chart: HG
    Copper futures forming the upper boundary of a downward channel. Good luck, folks.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZjFhMDkwY2Mt

  • legobear

    Nice chart. I was looking at it earlier today for reference, hoping it wouldn't burst out of that bubble you've painted 🙂

  • 99er

    Can edit at disqus dot com.

  • sloth_bear

    current count on AUD/JPY (for eye disabled), we must break 0.9157 soon:
    http://screencast.com/t/NzJhNTk3MDQt

  • sloth_bear

    Good one!

  • legobear

    Good journey Mole 🙂
    By the way, I misread the title as Koran when I first came to the site today, so I was wondering if it was some new american slang I had not picked up on (like “XX goes medieval” etc).

  • 99er
  • 99er

    Business or Pleasure
    Two cents from someone with twenty years of experience doing business in Asia: (1) Be Patient. Don't focus on the transaction but on building your relationship; (2) Dinners Are More Important Than Meetings. And be prepared to drink your new friends under the table. Save your best and final offer for dinner because that's what they'll be doing; (3) Have Fun. Because in Asia business *is* pleasure. Travel safe.

  • OldChicago

    Perhaps Saki for an asian version?

  • OldChicago

    The chat was started on Monday about R&D tax credit and 50B construction. Well, the industrial didn't rise much (or sold off on hype), except for steel shot to the moon. WSJ even print that the market didn't believe it works. Sad…

  • OldChicago

    Lots of FX chat this morning. Would like someone to eyeball it. Take a look at USD/JPY 5-yr chart. It is one giant descending triangle. It may just go sideway. I don't think the Japanese like Yen being screwed this way. High USD is trouble for equity. IMO

  • convictscott

    market internals strong at open, audjpy divergence against es u0, got long for a scalp on the 15 min inside bar 1093.75 stop 1091.75

  • raised_by_wolves
  • Brishort

    Good morning Mole, sound like nice vacations, enjoy!

    Good morning all,

    Trying to find a gameplan for this morning:

    a) P&F, nothing new for the bear case. Still positive from upward breakout of last week with only a few indexes ticking a slight “O”. No edge here from P&F if you are a bear.

    $NDX:

    – daily: (P&F retracing only on upside breakout. Above BB means uptrend still valid)

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$NDX,PLTIDANRBO%5BPA!E20,2.618%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!1!!!2!14]&pref=G

    – 60 min: high pole warning triggered yesterday, maybe a little bear food here.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$NDX,PLTIEANRBO%5BPA!E20,2.618%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!1!!!2!14]&pref=G

    $SPX:

    daily: upward trend, above “price by volume” previous resistance levels, within BB upbber section, no bear food here.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$spx,PLTIDANRBO%5BPA!E20,2.618%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!1!!!2!14]&pref=G

    60 min: happy lala land upward trend, no message here either

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$spx,PLTIEANRBO%5BPA!E20,2.618%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!1!!!2!14]&pref=G

    $copper:within normal P&F retracement in an uptrend P&F wise. No long term bear food here either.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$copper,PLTIDANRBO%5BPA!E20,2.618%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!1!!!2!14]&pref=G

    Ratio P&F: $wtic:$usd about to breach its recent 45 degress upward trendline (not shown). The SPX usually correlates to this ratio and doesn't diverge for long if ther is a downbreak. On my radar screen as a possible harbinger.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$wtic:$usd,PLTIDANRBO%5BPA!E20,2.618%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!1!!!2!14]&pref=G

    $spx:$vix: interestingly, back within the BB (the rule being, as long as outside BB on P&F, the trend is confirmed). Unless is crosses up again, means the upward movement from last week is on shaky grounds. On my radar as well.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$spx:$vix,PLTIDANRBO%5BPA!E20,2.618%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!1!!!2!14]&pref=G

    Double ratio charts of the 4 horses of hell: SPX:VIX divergence with $WTIC:$USD has been resolved in the usual manner observed since 2010 (did not correlate as well before) : i.e. $WTIC:USD seems most of the time to be leading the $SPX:$vix when divergences show up.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p70673597058&a=207973039

    EW squiggles: no edge, too murky for clarity.

    Timeline: too difficult to assess for the little bear food above. But with the OPEX gyrations, add to it Mole nice post above and unless bulls punch through 1105 with convictions, we may a chance at a lower low than yesterday by a few % from what I see.

    There you have it for today!

    Good luck to all!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    TY 99er I should know that LOL

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    yes isn't that the truth!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Ben bernanke!!! hahahah

  • raised_by_wolves

    Even with the new high, divergences among SPX, SPX/VIX, and SLV/GLD persist.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/af6cf2f1-d56f-4ffd-a0fd-83827d84d7ef/00002066.png

    Theoretically, SPX belongs at 1096, not 1099 🙂

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    look who dropped by… hi Anna, how's the zoo? 😉

  • derekste

    zero not buying into this morning pop at all, hopefully we get a turn within the next 60-90 minutes.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good suggestion.

  • raised_by_wolves

    So, I was supposed to infer something from the would dimension, was I?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you Crony (do you mind if I call you Crony?). So, the triptych is your favorite, is it?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Last 15 minutes: Copper has moved up relative to equities. Small caps have moved down relative to large.

  • convictscott

    upmove on es starting to look a bit stinky at 61% retrace of yesterdays drop, banked the profit for quick 2R win

  • Brishort

    Mole:

    Tech suggestion for you trip set-up with your Itampon (or anything else you travel with, then just logmein.com):

    https://secure.logmein.com/CA-EN/welcome/iphone/?wt.ac=1-1 is extremely good to allow you to connect to your computers while travelling. It's also good for your own “remote” good to feel confident you can access your computers home.

    For more “industrial strenght” on a PC set-up (that's what I use), gotomypc.com is the one to use (30 days free, more expensive afterwards). So where ever you are on the planet should not matter for your IT access and capabilities.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I may have been looking at the wrong time frame for scalping. SPX Today 1m gives a different view of things compared to the SPX 1 Day 1m I was posting. I would have covered a little earlier 😉

    At this point, SPX/VIX has caught up with SPX.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/e409e775-a4da-4e6b-abf6-1bb00ac96264/00002070.png

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Hello everybody.

    Ok, just a couple of charts so far

    hourly VIX – holding the mid-Bollinger on this retrace:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93679576831&a=203110793&listNum=2

    hourly NYADV, NYDEC – basically we have flipped the internals from yesterday, but the key thing here is that we have broken the trend on the MA – this is usually a good sign that the prior up-wave is toast IMNSHO

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p18002108776&a=203443508&listNum=2

  • Brishort

    You know I still have my John Travolta suit on, ultra ready for the DiscoBall party!!

    I was unsure about the BB settings for VIX, but learning to appreciate it. advdec are great, (added to my set-up with your name to remember it's from you 😉

    Great charts, thanks!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I use a VPN setup but this is very cool, so I bought it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Aware of all this but thanks again for the reminder – excellent points.

    And yes, business – meeting investors.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    In Korea that would be soju.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LMAO!!!

  • raised_by_wolves
  • Brishort

    Very glad if I could help. Tell us how it works when travelling. I am pondering an Itampon just for that simple set-up with my PC in remote and a nice screen, but normally I hate the rigidity of the ihone software design rigidity/lack of customizations.

  • 99er
  • Brishort

    Squiggle wise,

    –>SPX on the 5min chart looks like it just completed something up.

    Next short term move down will determine if it is a “corrective wave of the previous move up starting, or the completion of a corrective wave up with a new impulse down starting.

    The gist: next move down, if we start retracing more than 61%, i.e. 1095 and lower, we may be on to something more substantial to the downside.

    Zero action is very interesting to watch as well.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for sharing Ultra. I don't know though. I'm looking for a long signal next. Let me know if you get one of those 🙂

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    I don't reckon you're going to see one of those for a few days at least…

    Break of the channel here should be the signal to unleash (at least a little bit of) hell

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV:GLD&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=p66433563466&a=207761235

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Hope you get to put it to use!

  • 99er

    Market Commentary
    “The current situation reminds me of mid 2007. Investors then were content to stick their heads into very deep sand and ignore the fact that The Great Unwind had clearly begun. But in August and September 2007, even though the wheels were clearly falling off the global economy, the S&P still managed to rally 15%! The recent reaction to data suggests the market is in a similar deluded state of mind. Yet again, equity investors refuse to accept they are now locked in a Vulcan death grip and are about to fall unconscious.” Albert Edwards, Soc Gen
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-equity-investors-are-vulcan-death-grip-and-are-about-fall-unconscious

  • OldChicago

    Price and sentiment on ISEE certain match one another. Naz (AAPL, EBAY) seems to be pulling the cart. But, the money flow is flat, the move upward seems a bit more laborious now. TLT is holding flat for the last 1/2 hour. SMH, RTH aren't participating.

  • K.I.M.

    mole, watch your head 🙂

  • raised_by_wolves

    Here's a fabulous Hendrix jam for all you Stainless Steel Rats' listening pleasure.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBXyKYj0QYc

  • DarthTrader

    Check out his Cycle chart on the Yen Index. It says Yen should make a high for it's value against the dollar in OCt 10th Time frame which coincides with Carolan's Spiral date 10/10/10 & Venus Retrograde chart

    Yen Cycle Chart
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3729231&cmd=show%5Bs189107532%5D&disp=P

    Venus Retrograde periods over the SPX Incredible
    http://astrocycle.net/PrintPNG.php?Name=Venus_00.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I will make sure it stays attached.

  • DarthTrader

    Yes, I'm looking for a small sell off over the next couple of days then a rally into Oct

  • raised_by_wolves
  • ricebowl

    Nice catch!

  • ricebowl

    Interesting how ^VIX is several points above where it was on Monday, but SPX is approx. at the same level.

    I presume the ^VIX signal fizzles if we don't see some PM tankage to send ^VIX up?

  • raised_by_wolves

    What odds would you give VIX closing positive?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Not enough to matter? Meh, I'm going to back to bed.

  • raised_by_wolves

    On the daily chart, SLV/GLD is leading to the upside. Is it giving us a true or false buy signal?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/c4edfafb-2ed6-407e-8b6d-e5b374109e35/00002074.png

  • 99er

    Best. Guitarist. Ever.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYG3daMna-Y
    Fuck Gates, Hendrix is the true genius from Seattle.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Abso-fucking-lutely.

    One thing I've always loved about Hendrix is that he is capable of rendering the same song so differently. The jam I posted was, er started off as “Freedom.” Compare that jam with the better known version:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qezM-Ly5dYM

  • sloth_bear

    Here is a little summary of the short/medium term channels that I'm currently watching on ES:
    http://screencast.com/t/MzIzY2VhO

    Enjoy

  • raised_by_wolves

    Also, SPX/VIX looks like it found pretty solid support on the 2 hour chart yesterday. What are the odds of filling the gap?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/6301cc49-c79a-4078-aafa-6f54573fc1f1/00002075.png

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Not massive at this point, but I'm more interested in whether it holds that bollinger. If it does, then I think we're off to the races for a little while at least.

  • sloth_bear

    Interesting, but when you look at the top for spx and spx/vix it wasn't a top for slv/gld, also slv/gld seems to be retesting the level where it was before the top, I don't know if it's clear, I've lost the English part of my brain, here is your chart:
    http://screencast.com/t/MDdkYTM4Y

  • raised_by_wolves
  • OldChicago

    AAPL got an upgrade to $350. It's lifting all boats on Naz, which is pulling the cart. IMO. This may go on for a while as sentiment is wild. Check out ISEE.

  • gsavli

    Oh, so this is it, then. I was asking myself, what's with AAPL and naz today.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Where's Tooncez?

  • amokta

    I have been very busy with day job. Now i come and find we are back above 1100 spx!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Have you heard this version of Red House (San Diego, 1969)? I've posted it here before. In case you missed it or want to listen again . . .

    Part 1

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGVAr2gOkhk&fmt=18

    Part 2

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzEKnC5w9WQ&fmt=18

  • DarthTrader

    TLT or bonds starting to move up sell off could be coming on

  • OldChicago

    FYI. TLT just got a boost in vol. & price. Let see if it holds.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves

    Happens to coincide with MA(208) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/a3172653-4c43-4002-97de-545f4c6b8586/00002080.png

    If the ratio closes above, I'm using that as a buy signal.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Everything else being equal, the flatter the channel, the higher its probability. Do the bears have any flatter channel?

  • sloth_bear

    The line in the sand…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Silly me, I looked at your chart and 30 seconds later forgot about that line in the sand channel. Excuse my selective memory, which only recalled the steep down channel.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Maybe I should tap out to take a nap, huh?

  • sloth_bear

    You are pardoned 🙂
    But honestly, this green line is probably the last thing that keeps me in the bear camp…

  • OldChicago

    ISEE equity reading hi @ 247 today at 12:30 EST. The highest in recent 2 months is 256 on 8/18.

    Indices day hi @ 116 today 10:30. August hi 108 on 8/4.

    Is ISEE a leading or lagging indicator? A contrarian indicator?

  • raised_by_wolves

    If success were defined by spreading your genes, then it is too bad for Hendrix that birth control was invented prior to him fucking all those girls. I'm convinced he would have out reproduced Gates (hehe) and possibly matched Genghis Kahn 🙂

  • Tooncez

    Hmmm… my disqus wasn't updating…

    What's the problem? Trying to match two 'correlated' waveforms, and having trouble tweaking the offsets?
    http://screencast.com/t/NjliYzNlMj
    I use it for direction, but magnitude is an art at this point…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sma208 daily is already within the centenial rat frame (i.e. 40 weeks) I'd take it only as a line in the sand for weekly close above

  • 99er

    Thanks! And some kudos are due Microsoft as well for allowing us to hear what would otherwise have been obscure recordings. Thanks, too, to Paul Allen for the Frank Gehrey-designed Guitar Museum. My next Disqus name? Stratforever.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Get used to reloading. DISQUS real-time updating went crazy so we un-defaulted it.

    My SLV/GLD ratio is basic, not fancy like yours. SLV/GLD seems to lead well except that it sometimes leads by a mile and can give a lot of false signals. On a 1-minute chart, it has too much micro-volatility so has to be smoothed. But when I smooth it, it can becomes less correlated with equities. I have no idea how to tweak the offsets. I don't even know what that means. I've been thinking that maybe it needs to be averaged with some equity data. ($SPX)*(SLV/GLD) has been a useful TOS Prophet chart. Maybe I'll figure out how to recreate it in TOS Charts and go from there.

  • Brishort

    Just a note on Disqus: on IE 7, it is now back to normal when real-time updating is re-enabled from the (pause) configuration.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    New high NQ today thus far unconfirmed by ES

  • raised_by_wolves

    At this point, I'm thinking, “Fuck SLV/GLD. All I need is SPX/VIX.” Maybe I'll come back to SLV/GLD another time. Right now, I'm going to figure out a trading system using SPX and SPX/VIX exclusively.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/744f2519-9875-4e13-8fae-cd7fd83edade/00002081.png

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hmm, maybe we should have DISQUS turn real-time updating back on as the default setting, and, after being turned off and on, it will magically work?

  • UayBalam

    VIX sell signal not confirmed I guess. What about the Hindenburg Omen, was all that noise made for nothing?

  • Gary_UK

    I'm adding to shorts here and now, not short term, but holding til we hit 860ish in a month or two.

  • 99er

    Chart: SPX
    May be time to put a fork in it.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NWJmMmJiZ

  • Gary_UK

    Be patient, you should be gobbling up shorts at these levels, they won't be around for long.

    As every bear loses faith, I have more faith the top is in already.

    Jeez, how will bears behave when we go below 1000? Will no-one (apart from me) ride this thing to oblivion?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    FAITH?

    What is this – a religion???

    Mate – unless you have a chart telling you a particular move is probably, you got nothing. So bring it on. All I see right now is whipsaw central and a tossed salad of probabilities. We are probably failing the VIX sell signal today – there was a GTC fractal on the Zero and the A/D ratio. Not conflicting but not determinate either.

    Never never trade on emotions or hope or faith. Go short or long when your charts tell you to do so. All I see is theta burn on both sides of the spectrum.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Crazy tape today? Could that be the new moon?

    btw, have a great time in Asia, Mole – I am off that way myself on Monday – *very* excited.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I want to add another thought as Gary may have eluded to a contrarian position to be short as everyone else is long. Well, that's not really the case as of right now – some are short – some are long – no extremes here. So, my comment stands.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Where are you going?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Shanghai, HK and then Thailand on the way back…

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Stockcharts have quietly sorted out the intraday inverse ratios. Yay…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ONE:$TRIN&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=p79861413675&a=208088325

  • 99er
  • raised_by_wolves

    This is an environment where the probability of a crash is relatively high but not necessarily high. Let's pretend the odds of crashing soonish are 33%. Relatively speaking, that's crazy high. At the same time, that's still under 50% so one wouldn't want to bet the farm on it.

  • 99er
  • raised_by_wolves

    Sex tourism, huh 😉

  • Seahawk87

    Ms. Tightbuns — what is the punishment for improper use of an homophone? elude for allude? I am still awaiting my punishment for my misspelling of predilection yesterday, Mam. If I need to stay after the closing bell, so be it.

    Very whipsawish today — Trader intuition that they is not a bullish sign, and that the VIX has room to rise.

  • Gary_UK

    Alluded surely?

  • Tooncez

    I'm guessing it's respecting the line. That overthrow is pissing me off. I'm going to stay frosty.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Whoah – looks v cool – thanks! You been?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    LOL – busted…

  • 99er

    Lived in Hong Kong for four years and traveled all the time to Shanghai. Both cities have lots of great places but these two are my absolute favorites. Travel safe.

  • chronographics

    No prob calling me that and its easier to type than my full handle – also its not the worst I've been called 🙂
    Yes the triptych is my favorite, my youngest daughter saw it as well n she is busy studying photography n she thought is was pretty cool as well. Is this your thing – photography?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Thanks for the tips – will do.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good for you 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have not received one single tip for Seoul – is Korea that boring?

  • Gary_UK

    Faith, conviction,either work.

    And being a simple trader, this is why I have my conviction we're going much lower.

    http://screencast.com/t/YjUyNjcyZDg

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Hey SSH like a Zoo of course LOL ;-D

  • 99er

    Sorry, Mole, but I don't travel that often to Seoul; I usually stay at The Shilla and because locals consider it such a fancy joint, I eat there. One thing, though: brace yourself for the high cost of everything. You'll feel like you're from a banana republic.

  • Tooncez

    Sorry for the low res, but I meant offset in the vertical direction: http://screencast.com/t/ZjA5YmFiOTA
    Sadly, this is a problem every time you are comparing two lines (for example spx/vix vs spx) gives different results if you change the offset.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What you mean by 'I will feel like I am from a banana republic'? I live in CA mate!

    😉

  • BobbyLow

    Little Tid Bits on today's SPY action shows that once again the last 5 minute bar @3:55 PM was the largest volume bar of the day.

    One major difference though was that yesterdays 3:55 Bar was extremely negative with 6,547,446 shares exchanging hands. Today's 3:55 Bar was positive with more buying than selling but with only 2,830,900 shares exchanging hands.

    On top of that, the total Volume on SPY as of 4:24 PM is only at 64% of the MEASLY Three Month Average Daily SUMMER Volume.

    So that Begs the question. Who the hell is in this market? HFT's and us?

    So at this point, my contention is as good as anybody else's and that contention is that this market might be run up to wherever the HFT's want to take it. OTOH, one of these days this market might not be able to catch a bid on the way down.

    “So step right up ladies and gentlemen and place your bets. Where she stops nobody knows!”

  • 99er

    This site should prove helpful:
    http://www.gayot.com/travel/business/businesstravelguide/seoul.html
    I would have to add that while Koreans appear to be the most uptight people in Asia, they can be as rowdy as drunken Japanese; it just takes longer to break the ice. Have a safe and productive trip!

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves

    Unfortunately, it is not back to normal for me. I can live without real-time updating.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah, yeah, yeah. My inexperience with offset got me in trouble this morning. My current solution is to use a today 1 minute chart. This should work for middle of the day trading. I'm not sure about first thing in the morning since there isn't very much intraday data yet. Today, my SPX/VIX chart was perfectly calibrated for trading this time period (after the HOD) and its sub-periods . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/a6f11935-9f77-4b11-9535-103362e47e72/00002082.png

    My current thinking is, “Why not focus on trading a portion of the day perfectly and forget the rest.”

  • convictscott

    I just woke up here in Australia (stayed up making a scalp long on the open) and the picture is finally very very clear. It feels like Christmas has arrived. I'll make a detailed post after some coffee, but euro, copper, adv/dec, sentiment…. its all lined up now.

    If the bears break the spx low of today its an outstanding short, and an outstanding long if they break the high.

    It just couldnt be clearer, or easier to trade.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    whaaa… BREAKOUT ….. FREAK OUT !

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJzs8AnnN14

  • Piano_Man

    I would suspect that you will have an excellent time. I simply have not been there. Singapore, Philippines and Malaysia but not Korea. No tips to provide. Tried Drunken Prawns in Singapore – Live prawns cooked in sake. Very good and the prawns stopped flopping in the cooker after a bit.

  • DudePlunger

    I see the short setup but to be completely honest my bearish bias is preventing me from going long on a break of today's high. But the euro's retracement was a beauty today.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hey, check out my crazy ratio chart. A move above that trend line would be an opportunity for an outstanding long in my opinion while staying below would suggest that this is the top of a range and therefore an outstanding short. So, I agree with you.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/400835e1-4878-4507-853b-b89f60ad9bcc/00002083.png

  • raised_by_wolves

    I see the long setup but to be completely honest my bullish bias is preventing me from going short on a break of today's low 😉

  • amokta

    If the indexes were to rise above the August 9 highs of it would mean that stocks were tracing out a more complex upward correction. – i will nominate ewi for a Sherlock Holmes award!

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Join you in a coffee while I wait.

  • convictscott

    DP, as we talked about yesterday, we all have biases (I am much more short biased than you). There is psychological work you can do to make sure that the biased part of you does not trade.

    When you say “I think the market is going to turn x or on Y day” the power of language is that your subconscious starts to the process of ignoring all evidence contrary to that. Stop talking that way, its hurting your trading 🙂 As simple as that… when you make predictions, your subconscious becomes scared that they will be wrong, because a part of you experiences feelings of worthlessness (not worth loving) when you are wrong. Your brain, whose function is to solve problems, solves the problem of you potentially experiencing emotional pain by BLOCKING EVIDENCE THAT SUPPORTS THAT YOUR VIEW IS WRONG.

    Emotional pain problem solved. Expectation bias problem multiplied x 100!

    Your brain is interested in solving your problems, and since your psyche at an instinctive level feels that “if I cant trade successful I am shit… and therefore If I cant trade successfully I am worthless… which it associates with unlovable… which the psyche associates with parental love (the first model given)… your brain reaches the RETARDED CONCLUSION “If I am wrong in my view of the market I am not worth loving and I will DIE”

    DP you are an outstanding analyst, and have great trading potential, you have an excellent understanding of the market. Your psychological approach to the market, and motivations (hidden and overt) are what is stopping you from being CONSISTENT.

    This is because you are taking your psychological needs from the market. The market is NOT there to provide you with a source of love, value and safety. Its not there to satisfy your need to be right. A successful trade is NOT there to keep your atavistic fears of failure at bay (fundamental fears of worthlessness, that we are not worth loving except for our achievements – things drummed into us in childhood by parents/school systems)

    The market is NOT there to give you the illusion of control that you crave (need to be right to conquer feelings of powerlessness)

    That bias, whether or not you are right, will stop you from making money, because if you are right you will hold on too long, and miss evidence of a reversal and wipe out some of your profits.

    Try an experiment. Say to yourself today before you sit down “I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THE MARKET WILL DO TODAY! I LOVE MYSELF TODAY EVEN IF I TRADE BADLY, EVEN IF I LOSE MONEY”

    I bet you trade better.

  • DudePlunger

    Convictscott is going to kill me for that comment. And he rightfully should. The fact that I said I have a bias is disguisting.

    Hence, I am looking forward to playing the breakout…..in either direction.

  • DudePlunger

    This was amazing, A+ work.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Ironically, my long-term bearish bias is the biggest on ES. How big? How biased? How bearish? I expect Western free market capitalism to fail completely, the markets to be shut down, and all traders—whether long or short—to be wiped out. I'd give that scenario 80% odds in our lifetime and 40% odds in Stainless Steel Hamster's lifetime.

  • convictscott

    Language is powerful mate. We all have biases. Its not disgusting that you have them. What is unacceptable is to let your biased mind do any trading at all. This is simply on a practical level because your biased part is not competent to trade. If it has a winning biased trade it starts overtrading, or trying to let winners run too far.

    YOU are not your mind. Your mind is a tool, like a toaster, that you can use for analysis, then turn off when it comes time to trade.

    Bias exists for a purpose. To save you from two types of emotional pain.

    1) The pain of being wrong on a trade/trading badly ie fears of worthlessness
    2) The fear of not being able to control the outcome of a trade, ie fears of powerlessness

    To counter 1) your brain blocks evidence that you might be wrong
    To counter 2) your brain convinces you that you know the future, that you have power over the market.

    Neither of these things are helpful to trading or even remotely true, but how to change that? Its very simple. You must, at an instinctual level be desensitised to both fears 1) and 2)

    If you love yourself equally whether or not you make a lot of money this year or go broke you will trade better.

    If you admit, every day before you trade, that the market is more powerful than you, doesnt care about your opinion, is always right, and you have no power over it at all you will trade better.

    There is a lot of WORK involved in desensitizing fears that exist from early childhood.

    IMO this is at least 50% of the work in trading, the psychological aspect. Its the BIGGEST hurdle to becoming profitable.

    Yet most of us IGNORE this vital area for trading growth, and try and learn a new technique, perfect analysis, etc.

  • OldChicago

    Well said, and DP isn't alone.

    I have NO reading today of the market direction, and got burned on commissions.

  • OldChicago

    I agree with you. Everything seems to lined up, few divergence throughout the day. The only thing that I've seen which can easily corrected come tomorrow : RUT, Midcap, Large cap, SMH, XRT, XHB all under performed Naz & DJT. SMH under-perform

    SPX seems to be in a large triangle on the daily, like AUD/JPY.

  • OldChicago

    BL – you know what baffled me is that the money flow records negative prints two days in a row. It was -917M yesterday, -480M today. This erased all the gain on last Friday. One could say that we are in “distribution” mode – where last tape was pumped last Friday, and sold into last two days. I guess the job report, once again, will tip the market tomorrow? Prob. didn't matter as HFT was on auto-pilot, untill the code is changed. No wonder GS folded it's tradign desk.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The part where you say “that bias, whether or not you are right, will stop you from making money, because if you are right you will hold on too long” is so true and relevant to me.

  • raised_by_wolves

    By the way, this is a trick question 🙂

  • funkypenguin

    Today starts the old Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yom Kippur time – I usually disregard these old Wall Street sayings but in my experience and based upon a backtest through the link below, there is some wisdom here.

    http://bit.ly/cBH9fk

    I don't usually incorporate seasonal trends into my trading but recently have begun to wonder if I should (as one among many indicators)- interested if others do. (My trading is not intra day but swing trades)

  • SSurfer8

    Vix sell signal confirmed today?
    Vix sell signal = sell equities right?

  • convictscott

    I dont usually pimp my blog here (its really only starting to become something more than a work in progress)

    But I think there is some very useful info I've put up today.

    LMK what you think

    http://www.masterkillers.com

  • 99er

    Great stuff! Most constructive is the rationale provided; this helps us all learn new techniques and new perspectives. A problem, though, is that a click on an embedded chart (particularly the first one) doesn't result in a zoomed-in view, allowing the viewer to read the small font. Oh…aren't you concerned about the fucking language?

  • convictscott

    99er, thanks for that, I'm a wordpress novice and I'm using windows live writer for editing. Does anyone know how to do this? I'm not really concerned about the language…. its a “stream of consciousness” thing, to keep me honest in my analysis, its how I think so its how it goes.

    I'm prone to expletives 😉

  • 99er

    Prone to expletives? Well, that's just plain fucking evil.

  • 99er

    Oh…the analysis? Spot on.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/MDY1M2UyN2Q
    No faffin' about here.

  • tempest218

    I'm finding the gap situation pretty comical on SPY. We have in the past few weeks of trading:

    > 2 gaps total above current levels (1 small, 1 large)
    > 4 gaps total below current levels (3 small, 1 large)
    > 2 gaps immediately above
    > 2 gaps immediately below

    Most likely these will all fill by the end of September, but as Cobra points out, which goes first? The market seems hell bent on filling the two gaps above up to 112.20 on the SPY, so I don't discount that possibility. Given the cycles and the topping warnings, I sense that any rally will be contained at this juncture and may not hold into the close. That said, the days around the new moon are bullish-biased, and it isn't till day +3 or 4 after the new moon that optimism in the markets can wane, so bears may have to suffer more.

    What I doubt is that there's a huge gap tomorrow, since a big gap would have to gap over about 2 or 3 other gaps (LOL), so perhaps it starts out with a small gap, a gap fill, then a decision by the market. One observation: it seems like the knee jerk reaction in the markets to ANY data recently is a round of short covering, on good or bad news. Notice how Tues had no real data, but the market sold off. Today there was some data and it went up. Tomorrow is more data (and even lighter volume potentially), so the bears may be at a disadvantage short-term.

    Another thing worth watching. I've noticed that in every rally in 2010, the first few days above the 20 day EMA is one of the worst times to open new long positions. You can see that in every case, there was a flush out below the EMA after about 3-5 days above it. If the market can rally hard from here, perhaps this rally is more of the caliber of July/March 2009, but I have my doubts.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p71708364580&a=202131234

  • Tooncez

    I'm not going to admit how long it took me to figure out what $one was the ticker for…

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    what just happened on Aust. dollar?

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    employment change forecast … 25K vs. 23.5 previous.

  • BobbyLow

    Old Chicago – It sure seems like distribution doesn't it? However, one of the things that puzzles me is with such low volume who are “they” distributing to?

    So here we might have a case of it looks like distribution, smells like distribution and tastes like distribution so it's a good thing we didn't step in it?

    I have to admit to a very strong bias that is no longer bearish. My new bias is that I am of the opinion that this market has turned into nothing but a complete piece of shit. So much so, that if it looks like we are going to break upside resistance that appears might be strong enough support for the intermediate future, I might decide to close out all but perhaps a very small number of long term puts.

    I've been able to scalp both sides (Bull and Bear) Day Trades for the last couple of weeks with more winners than losers and that has helped ease a little of the pain. So I might be better off just scalping and keeping what's left in cash overnight.

    This market appears to be run by the Gap and is set up to fuck almost everybody who's Swing Trading. So once longs get set up, BANG! – Large Gap Down and follow through to the downside. Once the Shorts get set up, BANG! – Large Gap Up and follow through to the upside- (Although this type of action has worked much more heavily against Bears.)

    Unfortunately, like a lot of us here, over the last year my trading account has been experiencing “a death by a 1000 cuts.” And after a 1000 cuts well, it dies. My account is not dead yet but has been on and off life support too many times to count.

    I can't believe I'm back in mental survival mode already. Didn't we just go through this crap for the 10th time this year?

    In any event, as disgusting as it can be at times and like a lot of others have said before me, the tape will do the talking no matter who or what is making the tape talk. Now it is up to me to realize that as Convict Scott suggested, I am powerless when it comes to the market and that I can't change that. So about the only thing that I can change is how I respond to it.

    Tomorrow's another day.

    Good night folks.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    That spike up in the AUD confirms for me 5th wave up since 7th June 2010 now in play. Considering we have significant resistance here as discussed yesterday; 5th maybe complete. This 5th could spike to 94+ which would complete an ABC off the October 2008 low. Then again if it makes it to 94 it could just as well make it to 2008 high of 98.5. Even so I see a pending correction here that may throw up a few answers.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Todays action in the AUDUSD pair may will be a confirmation of your work. thanks for the clear charts.

  • Tooncez

    Bob The Horse, thanks for sharing the bond spread. I stuck it on top of slv/gld for fun.
    http://screencast.com/t/YWI5ZjVlM
    For divergences I've drawn, slv/gld wins short term, and ger-por wins long term…
    What do you do for long stretches of abject early-bird suffering – like mid feb to mid april?

  • convictscott

    We just broke the old highs from 6 August. Some stops were triggered, we should get an idea as to whether or not its going to bring in fresh bullsh from the sidelines or be a double top by tomorrow. AUD has an unusually creepy degree of correlation with equities so its a pretty easy trade to make. Equities go down tomorrow and AUD makes a double top = get short on break of the daily low, wherever it may be, with a stop at the new high.

  • convictscott

    RBW, the best long signal here is a failed short. If bears try and fail here, thats the best long you will get for a long while

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    im not oldchicago, but i feel your pain in Aug anyways. I was up really nice in may, june, july, but have since trimmed a lot off in aug and sept some…. good luck to you.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Yes so creepy I rack my brain trying to determine what an earth the would cause the positive correlation between the AUD and US equities – it's counter-intuitive i.e. take funds from high yielding AUD invest in U.S. stocks to maintain global fund ratios AUD should fall as increase in demand for USD? (IMO) Makes for good sport.

  • Tooncez

    Speaking of AUD, what technique do you use to line up AUDJPY and ES to determine divergence? I mean, how do you pick the point where they last touch?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Excellent point.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

    I am totally slaughtering the Gold Bulls. Great entries and I'm surrounded by more bull blood, than the BP spill.
    I found another short sell.
    FFIV,
    http://zstock7.com/?p=3254

  • Hungry_Joe

    Convictscott, had seen your blog earlier too when you linked the charts. Good stuff there. Am waiting for you to fill up the Trade parts at the bottom of the page. Could find only rtv there. Btw, for some weird reason, am seeing only rtvs wherever I look.

    As per DP's comment regarding biases, I am so so biased short that I trade only short positions or I sit out. I know that you know how THAT turns out. 🙂 Anyhow, the education is on and I plan to be a better trader. Nothing better that I like to do. I hope you guys keep writing in.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    NZDJPY Breaking down on 60min ahead of AUDJPY. One or other pair will always leads on breakdown i.e divergence occurs between this Siamese twin pairs. As the Pantene Shampoo says: It won't happen overnight but it will happen – of course in this situation it happens simultaneously as in News or within hours. Just something to watch to gain an early warning of a possible profit making opportunity.

    See NZDJPY: http://tinyurl.com/2bdgqkm and AUDJPY: http://tinyurl.com/2ep632q

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Loving your success – may it continue until you have all those Bulls corralled.

  • Biowolf

    Let me know of any shorts on the KOSPI.

  • raised_by_wolves

    “Why do you still waste time with her?”

    “I'll say this about copper. At least she's trying to hit bottom.”

    😉

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/5bbd7333-0887-43cd-9936-f54761fd6ca2/00002084.png

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for the watch-for-one-of-the-siamese-twins-to-breakdown-first tip.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    This is a chart I like a lot. Even if we haven't seen the high, that's such an extreme reading registered already (and a divergence in itself) that any further dribble to the upside can only be a gift.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ONE:$TRIN&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p55036940035&a=208089313

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    JNK:TLT – failed attempt to break back above the lower wedge boundary, followed by a back-test?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK:TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75298921423&a=203578736&listNum=2

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

    It's really going to be hot, when GDX touches 50. That's where I think the pullback will go. I ALSO shorted NEM,AEM..long GG as a hedge.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

    kea11,
    I have shorts on FCX 79.95…AUD has to come down, in order for the FCX short to work. EPS wise, the highest possible FCX can go this cycle is 82.9.–This limits AUD to 2% more upside, if AUD indeed, hasn't already topped–That's why I shorted FCX today. I don't think FCX can make 82.9.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    This is getting exciting, one side of this coin toss is going to get royally screwed; about now I've become accustomed to it so if it ain't the short side this time around (suffering from vertigo on this never ending story but have the advantage of calluses by now) then there's gonna be a-lot of fresh, flesh blood on the floor. It seems every investment category is reaching resistance so it's breakout to the stratosphere or the return to support and then who knows what.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Yep that's the size of it. I hoped that anyone interested in this would figure the counter move as being just as valid, as it's only the divergence that is apparent; as far as direction this is all about being vigilant to the trade based on which pair ultimately leads the break. So definitely not a given, just a forewarning that a trend change maybe in the air. Thanks.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Nice

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    I'm in agreement with you here. I'm holding my breath as Options Expiry is closing in so I feel that any rejection at these levels needs to happen here otherwise as Tim Knight said today the Bear will be a rare animal indeed. On the plus side for the Bears, the AUD has been rejected at these levels on 5 different occasions in the last 10 months, so what will be different now to enable what would be a game busting break-out to the upside and likely .98c first stop prior to a move to parity and beyond.

    Who knows what, but this 10 month trading zone has been extremely protracted and supported so I'm not counting any Chickens yet with regard major downside. Great risk reward trade all the same. Mind you I said that when I sold the Kiwi against the Aussi in April, as it had not managed to poke through the 1.315 range and set a new high in 4 attempts since 2008, so I put faith in Resistance as one should with protection – guess what. Of course I was right with regard the price being rejected, but not before a spike high to 1.325. A new multi year high between this pair. Perfect scenario but not enough smarts to succeed. Actually right now this pair is making a lovely h&s and is back in nose bleed territory.

    AUDNZD: http://tinyurl.com/28b6dsa

  • sloth_bear

    Good morning all, here is an update of my /ES channels:
    http://screencast.com/t/M2I4YTQ0YmUt

    Have a nice day

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
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  • raised_by_wolves

    There is a head and shoulders formed on the tape. I think the most important line is this cyan line on SPX/VIX.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/56bf4a6a-d1d6-4713-8e0a-0a06080d6b2b/00002087.png