Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I can’t believe it’s July already – at least on my end the months have just been flying past me. Interesting configurations this first trading day of the month and I expect some nice moves today. On the E-Mini the ST panel is pretty useless right now but the chart to watch today is the daily as we have a bonafide Retest Variation Buy (RTV-L) entry on the books. The trigger is 1614.5 which also happens to be conveniently located below the 25-day SMA and a NLBL which expires at the EOD. If we push above all that resistance it’s rock & roll time – until then I’m neutral as short positions are iffy in the face of that 100-day SMA right below. That’s of course on a daily perspective – you can swing trade the range between those two converging SMAs at your heart’s content.

Gold also looking pretty polished this morning – the 25-hour and 100-hour SMAs are about to collide and if price survives the impact then I want to be long. Short below the 25-hour SMA as long as it remains below the 100-hour.

EUR/USD attempting to break free from the 100-hour SMA. It failed on Thursday/Friday but I do think it’s got a decent chance to succeed. Persistance pays off…. Short below the 25-hour SMA if price swings lower.

But if you think that is all we got this morning then you are sadly mistaken – please step into my trading lair:

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Bonus chart:

Scott and I have been feverishly working on CrazyIvan over the past few months and I am getting close to opening up the floodgates to the promised beta testing subscription (yes, it’ll be free for a month). I was about to release it into beta today but the Convict finalized some research which showed rather impressive returns on 30-minute charts instead of the 360-minute version you see above. He’s reporting expectancy above 0.6 and SQN around 2.7 – with shallow draw downs and a maximum of 3 consecutive losses – which is rather brilliant.

The only downside (if you want to call it that) is that it’s a trending strategy which only triggers about 15% of the time (when the tape is trending down or up). So my current plan is to release is it as a package subscription which (for starters) will cover the following contracts: ES futures, AUDUSD,USDJPY, EURUSD, ZB futures. There may be more in the future but those five would give us about 80 – 100 compaigns per month. I have to implement a few things today and perhaps tomorrow but expect to make it available to you guys later this week.

Public Service Announcement: This will be a short trading week as the NYSE will close early on Wednesday at 1:00pm EDT ahead of Independence Day on Thursday. There will be trading on Friday but I expect it to be light.

Cheers,