More Than Meets The Eye

We have a lot to charts to cover today, so let’s dive right in. Yesterday afternoon someone asked me about silver and I posted my short term perspective which indicated a possible long setup with limited upside potential:

As you can see that daily NLBL has been holding thus far and suggests we may push into 35 or 35.9. There may be a retest and as long as we hold 33.4 I would continue to hold this position. However human beings that we are we often do not see the forest before the trees. Once I dug a bit deeper I uncovered a much more interesting silver perspective on my long term chart. And that doesn’t just apply to silver – we seem to be sitting at inflection points all over the commodities side. So buckle up Dorothy, we are going to cover the whole gamut today:

And here’s the long term silver chart – let’s look at the weekly panel on the left first. If you fade out all the noise then you see that we have been bouncing along the 25-week SMA since last October. A push above now is extremely positive but does face resistance in the form of the 25-month SMA on the monthly panel. Suffice to say that a push above that would be extremely positive and clear the way for a stab at those old lofty heights.

Copper managed to hold daily support at the 25-day BB and is now pushing to overcome its 25-day SMA. So far so good!

The weekly panel (on the left) also shows us a retest of the 100-week SMA which thus far seems to have been successful. But there’s that monthly NLSL right at 4.005 – which is now expired but should still exert some sort of repellent. It’s nevertheless positive to see us trade above the 25-month SMA again and if we happen to drop once more keep an eye on the 3.7 mark. Otherwise this chart is looking pretty bullish right now.

Coffee futures have been falling of the plate lately and that chart is starting to look like Merkel’s face – everything is drooping down! I’m sure a few trend traders are having fun right now.

Long term this is starting to look even uglier as we basically failed the 100-week SMA and are now testing the lower 25-week BB. But if you look at the monthly panel the extent of the technical damage is becoming clear. We may see a retest here and if we do I would probably try a long term short trade with a stop near 220. Downside targets are a bit tough to predict but 140 seems like a forgone conclusion once we breach below the 200 mark. Next time you go to Starbucks please ask them why they are charging four bucks for a cup of water with three ground coffee beans served by hapless actor_barristas. No a café au lait is made with brewed coffee, NOT with espresso – don’t get me started…

Sugar is our next logical runner up until they start trading half/half futures. After popping some Cristal after a nice pop higher we got our collective dicks slammed in the door jam today. The good news – that 25-day SMA is holding thus far and there’s not much to do until we get stopped out below it.

The long term perspective indicates that sugar also is hanging in the balance here and that is why our setup may be more important than we initially anticipated when taking it. Overcoming that 25-week AND 100-week SMA could propel us quite a bit higher – assuming we are holding that diagonal support that has developed here (not painted on my chart). The monthly is also testing the 25-month SMA right now and 24.23 appears to be key support now. I would not hold into 22.35, no sirree.

Corn has been prancing along its entangled 25-day and 100-day SMAs – nice little scalping setups if you like that sort of thing. Right now we are yet again pushing into resistance at the daily 640.5 NLBL.

The weekly picture on corn shows us why we have not made much upside progress as the 25-week SMA has acted as resistance. See, it absolutely pays to look at a chart from different angles, i.e. time periods. This may drag out but I do enjoy seeing that 100-week SMA rising to the occasion – maybe it will provide us with additional support in a month or so. Worth keeping an eye on.

30-year treasure futures, a.k.a. /ZB has been the gift that keeps on giving. Every time we push near 140 we have been taking nice long trades here. Unfortunately the upside potential is rather limited but we are basically nickel and diming this thing to death.

Well, you know this chart already – and we are all still waiting for resolution. Perhaps we’ll go back to 144 or perhaps we drop back to support but either way this resolves the ensuing move is going to be massive. I for sure want to be in it – but the patient trader takes the price.

No, you’re not off the hook just yet – two more FX setups worth sharing 😉

Cable has now dropped below its 100-day SMA and is testing two consecutive NLSLs near 1.56. Obviously this is a good long setup requiring only a very tight stop nearby. Once stopped out I would flip this beast around for a ride into 1.555.

Similar setup unfolding on the Aussie/Dollar – this thing has been pushing back above (thus far) and I would be long here with a stop below today’s lows.
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Cheers,