My (Not So) Precious!

Retail schmucks and ZeroEdge addicts are still scratching their heads (and probably something else) over what has happened in gold recently. A nasty shake out is exactly what happens when everyone is being seduced by the dark forces of exponential candles.

That Smigel better stay away from Comex or things are going to get very ugly!

Not that our collective precious is looking so hot right now – let’s start with the short term but the really really juicy stuff is reserved for the subs:

I already posted last week on that retest of both SMAs – which resulted in a failure. And if you went short there you already banked some handsome coin. However, take a look at that NLBL on the hourly – it is a KEY level and may even have implications on what’ll happen on the monthly and weekly side – we’ll get to that in a moment. As I’m typing this we are pushing higher and I expect that hourly NLBL to be tested in a jiffy.

Please note that the daily candle just breached through another NLSL – which of course may get us toward the 1550 mark or lower, assuming of course that hourly resistance stays intact. Alright, now let’s talk about the really juicy stuff:

As you can see there is a brand spanking new NLSL on the weekly map. If we stay above that – fine – then we may see gold make it back to the upper BB. But if the hourly NLBL fails and we slip back down hard we are going to breach this one and as you may remember that suggests we go to 1400 where the 100-week SMA lurks – ouch!

Now look at the monthly panel – I already pointed out last week that the monthly NLSL at 1478 could be the early termination of the weekly sell signal (again if breached and all). But if the weekly goes all the way to target then we’d have a bonafide monthly sell signal. And that, my intrepid stainless steel rats, would open the door for a long term move back toward Gold at the 1k mark.

So that hourly right now may have huge implications – not that things couldn’t change the dynamics next week. Of course we could see a failure today and then a buy signal next week, refuting all the above. Nevertheless – as traders we need to identify key levels and setups on the short term that may affect the long term. I think that gold is a good example of that which is why I am watching that hourly NLBL and the 25-hour SMA with keen interest. Taking out a long term lottery ticket with a stop only a few ticks away could turn out to be a low risk super high reward setup.