No Mercy For The Turkey

It may be Thanksgiving week but there are literally high quality setups crawling out of the woodworks. Can’t I ever get a day off? Here I was hoping for a slow shake out day and an obligatory update after which I would whisk off for some nice tapas being served right around the corner. But no such luck – evil is as evil does and now I’m forced to actually post something productive. So here we go:

The E-Mini looked ready to rock and roll earlier this morning but has since dropped through our 25-hour SMA. Its also back below the daily NLBL that it conquered yesterday. Frankly I’m not too worried about it – tomorrow is this week’s last trading day that counts (I don’t expect much activity on Friday). And that NLBL is good until Monday, so this could stretch out.

However, that said – IF the spoos drop a bit more or hold below VWAP then the VIX just may close inside its 2.0 Bollinger. And that would mean it would have satisfied step two into a bonafide VIX sell signal. And that would be interesting, wouldn’t it?

Quick crude update – yes, the setups is officially busted after a sea of red hourly candles got us back to whence we came. I’ll be back to strike again if we push above the 100-hour SMA – whenever that happens.

A little freebie as I also want to show off some early afternoon coding efforts. I have now produced an inside day indicator so that I don’t always have to draw those lines – it started to get old. By the way, I also wrote an outside period indicator – you can see the labels on this chart plus I’m darkening the candles a little bit. I would actually prefer to draw blue outlines around the candle (like in NinjaTrader) but to my shame I don’t know how to do that and ThinkOrSwim is not responding to my support emails.

Anyway, the greenback is offering up an inside day + NR4 day. I would love to see an upside breach here which would really throw a curve ball at those Dollar bears. But of course I wouldn’t mind a drop below today’s lows tomorrow – less evil but potentially profitable nevertheless.
[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Gold posted its own pre-Turkey-Day shake out and is now near its 100-hour SMA. I think that’s a great spot to get long with a stop below the SMA. I like the fact that we also (almost) touched the 25-day SMA.

Copper also being sold off. This chart shows you the context – we are right at the crossroads between the 25-day and 100-day SMA. And then there’s this:

Conveniently it’s also painting a beautiful inside day + NR4 setup after a long nasty buy candle. Boy, what I wouldn’t give to see a downside breach here tomorrow.

Soybeans – this is actually the context chart. I did not report on the inside day + NR4 here yesterday but we painted an outside period today anyway. Right now we are above and it’s already a long. But then there’s this:

The 100-hour breach for instance and then there’s a possible floor pattern after a nasty sell off. I want to be long here at the next best opportunity. A retest of the 100-hour would be absolutely awesome.

AUD/USD – touch of the 100-hour and it’s tinkering with both the 100-day and 25-day. I want to be long here with a stop below the hourly SMA.

EUR/AUD – this one is a bit more complicated – hear me out. So we painted an inside day which is in the process of reversing. Today we are producing an OP (outside period), which makes me want to be long here on a breach of the upper trigger of that old inside day. Reason – this could be a retest variation buy setup as part of a medium term floor pattern.

EUR/CAD – I want to be long right now – stop below the trigger line. Period.

GBP/USD – right at the NLBL today – also a long.

USD/CAD – possible long here. We are touching the 25-day and that ought to be holding of course. Strike 2 would be a push above the 100-hour near par. And then…

… there is the inside day + NR4 – how handy is that? The upper trigger is a few pips below that 100-hour. So I absolutely consider it my patriotic duty to be long on a breach. Let’s stick it to those Barbarians in the icy North!

Alright, this ought to keep you guys busy for a while. Let’s keep it frosty and don’t get overexposed – you don’t want some holiday week setups ruin your long weekend, right?

Cheers,