Oompa Loompa Tape

What exactly did they mean when singing ‘if you’re not greedy you will go far’? Clearly Oompa Loompas are not trader material and should stick with chocolate manufacturing only. Which incidentally may be coming back to the United States if President-elect Donald Trump will have his way. Not sure if that’s a good thing however. If I had to choose between a famed Hershey’s bar and one by Milka made from rich Alpine Swiss milk then I’m sure you know what I’d be stuffing my face with. By the way, a word of advice: Oompa Loompas – hard working little guys – but be sure to be nice to them as they aim directly for you gonads when they get angry. 

The elections are finally behind us and I was very much looking forward to getting back to business and banking some coin. Unfortunately the gyrations of the past two sessions have thrown one big monkey wrench into my nefarious plans. I was expecting movement and we got plenty of it. A big move up on its own would have been great – similarly the drop we got would have been extremely useful from a technical perspective. But a drop followed by an instant retour puts us in uncharted territory. This is extremely rare and I only remember these types of formations on conflicting interpretations or erroneous information courtesy of a big news event.

The bearish potential that had accumulated has now been prematurely dispensed (and yes I was tempted to use another analogy but was reminded to not harm your fragile puritan minds). A complete touch of the monthly NLSLs near 2005 and change would have been ideal but we didn’t even get that either. What we have now is a bit of zombie tape technically speaking with no real entry opportunities. In other words this may just ride higher or suddenly change direction and at this very moment I don’t see any high probability scenarios worth sharing.

There are two chart that have fascinated me as of late. One of them is copper which I grabbed long in September but then got kicked out of a few days later at break/even. I missed the touch of the lower diagonal on the daily unfortunately and since then it’s gone gangbusters. I wonder how many of you would have taken this setup however and I’m posting this to make a point.

I don’t see a lot of people trade commodities these days but if you hedge any hopes of catching a raving trend from hell then commodity futures are the ticket. A lot of folks seem to have an instinctual fear of trading commodities but I think it’s mostly due to a lack of trading capital. Yes, the spreads are often wide and volume is much lower than on the index futures for example. But when’s the last time you’ve seen a move like this on the ES or in your favorite stock?  Exactly, those are fare and few in between as those markets are heavily arbitraged. And that’s the reason why I keep posting these types of setups here and I suggest you give futures trading a chance as you may enjoy it more than merely slinging stocks or options.

Now the second chart that has fascinated but also puzzled me as of late is the Euro. For much to my delight it is not ramping higher after Trump won his golden ticket to the White House. The weekly diagonal is mostly theoretical I admit as we only have two and a half touches, but it did gain more credibility by that recent retest which was followed by the ongoing reversal. Here I don’t see an entry opportunity right now and if you’re short then I suggest you keep it running. Preliminary target is 1.07 but that’s more of a soft target. I still wonder if I’ll live to see it trading on par one of those days.

As I need to keep my subs happy I’ll need to post my two favorite charts of the day below the fold:

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