Boring Bernanke Day

Pretty boring session thus far – obviously everyone is waiting for that FOMC announcement which should be forthcoming by the time I finish that post. Expect some volatility pre and post announcement – you have been warned. [Update: It just happened and the resulting swings were a lot less wild than I expected.] In any case – an hour before the NYSE opening bell I sent out an email to my subs as we had just breached a daily Net-Line Sell Level (NLSL) on the S&P E-Mini:

Thus far it’s been a good entry but obviously a lot can happen today. If you took the entry then I recommend you set your stop and let things play out. Yes, there’s a very good chance the tape will swing in both directions and stop you out. Nothing we can do about that.

Whatever happens later today – remind yourself that the trend thus far remains to the upside. And if the bears are unable to clear this NLSL over the next four days then odds are whatever has propelled this market over 1420 will continue to do so for the foreseeable future – technical evidence notwithstanding.

I did dig up a few good setups – several of which involve 100-day SMA touches. And you know how much I enjoy trading those. Whatever you do – don’t take them before things have settled today. Best to wait until we get near the closing bell:
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NZD/USD – don’t ask me how but my Spidey senses are tingling on that one. It’s wedged between that SMA and the NLBL – which by the way expires today. I would love to see a long breach here and despite the Net-Lines expiration rules that NLBL would be my entry.

Inside day + NR4 on the EUR/USD. If you are long already (from the prior one) then I suggest using the green entry as confirmation (maybe you can pyramid up) and the short entry as your stop.

EUR/JPY – same idea here. We had an ID + NR4 on Monday and frankly I didn’t expect a second one so soon.

On to the Maginot line setups: The Dollar is sitting right on it and clearly a lot is riding on holding this one. At this point I am long with a stop below the 100-day SMA. But as there’s nothing but air below I’d be happy to flip it to a short position. Only issue is that we may not get a clean entry in the heat of things later today. [Update: Short now as we are below.]

Treasuries – the 30-year futures has confirmed my recent suggestions of a ‘last kiss goodbye’ maneuver. Great short entry here – BUT it’s always possible that we are actually looking at a failure here and that we bust on higher. Well, we shall soon know. [Update: Long now as we are above.]

Copper – approaching its Maginot line as well. I am not short yet – waiting for a touch. Again, I would love to see a long breach here but I am not sure it can muster up the strength.

Keep it frosty and keep it clean. Don’t get caught up in all of the excitement. Emotions equal trading losses.

Cheers,