Crunch Time!

I can’t believe I’m saying this but there are almost too many setups lately – I can hardly keep up! We get them on the short term front – we get them on the daily front – we get them on the equity, forex, bond, and commodities side. Plus we’ve been touching inflection points that may produce larger medium term moves. Those are the big earners and we don’t want to miss out. Paying attention and taking advantage of opportunities during crunch time periods can make your entire year – and if you miss out you may have to wait months for another chance to cash in.

So don’t get me wrong – I’m not complaining. But during the week I can’t seem to find time to go back to coding the Mole into NinjaTrader. Here’s another update on the 1-min version – perhaps now you understand why I’m itching at the fingers to get it done.

The spoos are attempting to paint a low – no surprise there, the ISEE update this morning was our final signal to switch back into delta neutral mode. There is nothing much of interest on the daily chart so I had to go picking around for tea leafs on the hourly panel. Before I’m even thinking of long exposure I wan to see the hourly NLBL breached today, that means ES 1412.5 or higher. The 100-hour is falling steadily and should meet up with us in a day or two, assuming we don’t continue lower. If we do then you recall that 1390 is where I expect more meaningful support.

AUD/JPY not a setup just yet but a push above that Bollinger could put us near 83.5.

AUD/USD – well, I have been pimping those two daily SMAs on collision course in the past few days. They met today and we jumped above both of them in one long candle. The hourly also matched up perfectly – 1.032 was your entry. If you missed it then you have only yourself to blame 😉

USD/CHF – great inside day entry the other day and it’s looking good. It’s now pushing above the 25-day and I’m liking it. You can dip in here if you missed the first entry.

Cocoa hit an air pocket and bounced near a NLSL and the big SMA. I want to see a more thorough retest before I venture into long positions.

Crude – I just have to keep rubbing this one in. Entry at the last kiss goodbye (LKGB) and it’s been a sea of red ever since. My target is 80.

Sugar – another LKGB entry and it’s doing well so far. Target near 19.15.

Silver – yet another LKGB entry and we’ve been rubbing it into everyone’s face ever since (alright, just a little). Target near 30.25.

And yes – more setups – I don’t want you guys to get over exposed, so you may want to slim down your position sizes:
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EUR/AUD just sliced through its 25-day SMA – if you missed it then wait for a retest (a.k.a. last kiss goodbye). No guarantees but you never want to chase a big move.

EUR/JPY at the 25-hour and may be in the process of plotting a top. If stopped out I won’t be going long.

EUR/USD – 25-hour SMA breach and the hourly is tracing down the 25-hour. GREAT entry with a stop above the daily SMA.

Cable may be breaching its 100-hour – it’s an early entry that may precede a breach of the NLBL. Of course that one could turn out to act as resistance, but if so you’d get out at least break even.

NZD/USD tracing down overhead resistance on the daily. The hourly just pushed above the 100-hour and we could be talking breach here. Long with a stop below – willing to flip if we drop back below. Again, it’s an early entry – the diagonal and then the NLBL on the daily need to be breached. Oily boid gets the woim.

USD/CAD – thus far the 100-day is holding up and I am short with a stop above. The SMA is now dropping and that works in our favor as this one either accelerates lower or stops us out.

Cotton looking weak and a breach of that NLSL gets us to 69.

Inside day on the 30-year treasuries – if you’re new and don’t know what to do here then please consult the cheat sheet.

Corn starting to look bullish – I still want to be long here. As many of you existing subs know we already had two helpings – this would be my third. Stop has once again been advanced below the SMA.

Soybean at a cross roads – and as Yogi Bera said: If you come to a fork in the road – take it! A reversal here has us short and a push above long. It’s looking bullish but either side has plenty of potential and I won’t take sides. Well, I will actually – the winning side 😉

Some of you noobs wrote me about getting whipsawed around near inflection points. Yes it happens! And it’s annoying. But the story in a nutshell is that it’s worth it. Some setups drive us nuts – others take off and don’t look back. Over time we wind up on the winning side.

Keep it clean – keep it frosty. The tape is emotional and once she bounces higher there’ll be plenty of blood in the water. You don’t want to be shark food, so pay attention and stick with the setups. Which means be disciplined and observe your stops, especially if you don’t like them.

Cheers,