So Far So Good

Summer tape is known to often test our patience, and even more so if we find ourselves in technical limbo territory. And just like at the drug rehab center the Mole continues to tell you to just say no. Say no to iffy setups, no to overtrading, and no to having an opinion on where things may swing next. Make no mistake – this tape is engineered to take you to the cleaners and in the end run off without you. The patient steel rat conserves its energy and waits its turn. Our time will come – no sense in forcing things.

Despite the sideways action a few of our recent setups seem to be holding strong. Let’s revisit those first:

Gold is making an attempt to sneak across that 100-day SMA – as if we wouldn’t notice! We have been long here for a few days and this is positive, sure – but we haven’t made much in terms of upside progress so remain vigilant. The fact that the NLBL hovering above expires today may be positive for us longs. Anyway, so far so good.

Crude – almost the same picture here and I would follow this chart closely. We are in a seasonally strong period and our money is on a push higher here. But of course with a stop reasonably placed below that 100-day SMA. So far so good.

CAD/JPY breached its own Maginot Line today and we should be long here. So far so good as well – but I do expect a bit of a retest, so be prepared.

Ole bucky found some mojo today and is pushing toward its NLBL – which expires today. That in turn means a bit less resistance if it decides to follow through higher here. Only if it breaches today do we get an official long entry according to our 5-day entry period rule. Which of course is arbitrary… but a rule is a rule.

Inverse situation on the EUR/USD – same idea as the NLSL also expires today.

USD/CHF – is approaching its own expiring NLBL – what are the odds. The only difference here is that it’s also facing a 25-day SMA and if we get a push above both then I think it’s permissible to dip into long positions.

That’s all I have for today. Over the weekend I’m going to cover some of my momo charts again but in a nutshell let me tell you that the picture remains very mixed. Which makes making directional plays very difficult right now. Stay delta neutral and play it small. It’s August and we are soon heading into a more exciting season 😉

Cheers,