Take Profits

If you have been long since 1300 then it’s time to take profits.

It’s been a good ride but the upside risk is now becoming substantial and I would not recommend taking on long positions. I have two charts that make my point but before we get there let me rub in this timely call I made for anyone paying attention last night:

Had you followed my call and gone short Silver yesterday or even this morning you would have banked some nice coin by now. I don’t think that move is done but I took partial profits. Again – Gold members heard it first – so sign up!

Sadly, based on the eerie silence I have received I am pretty convinced that almost nobody took this one. Yes, trading can be scary at times – especially when faced with an exponential curve.

Anyway, on to the meat for today – here’s why I don’t see much upside in the coming days. Of course with Banana Ben at the helm I could be easily proven wrong but why take chances right up here? Remember: Bulls make money, bears make money (sometimes), and pigs get slaughtered.
[amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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I really don’t like what I’m seeing over on the long end of the treasury curve. TLT is climbing higher and it’s quite possible we could see a blast higher here.

The daily Zero is touching its upper trend line again. Yes, it’s possible that it’ll blast higher but even if it does I am sure there will be a bit of a shake out. They’ll never make it that easy after all 😉

I don’t see any volume supporting a push higher – this is pretty much the end of the line. Again, magic Fed money can conjure up liquidity where there was none but why take the chance?

Bottom Line:

Yes, many of my medium term charts support a push higher from here but short term I do think we are due for a little shake out. Finally, look again at that last ES chart – nice inverted H&S, right? Trust me – many retail traders are seeing that one right now as it’s a basic textbook charting pattern. What many of the same retail schmucks (yes that’s you and I) don’t realize however is that there is usually a shake out at the trend line just before things blast higher.

The sentiment of greed among traders is very much related to fear as it’s nothing but fear of losing out on profits. And it’s a sure way of being taken for a ride to the woodshed. I say we had a nice run – let’s wait and see what happens before getting repositioned again.

Cheers,

Mole