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Tasteless OPX Tuesday Rub Down
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Tasteless OPX Tuesday Rub Down

by The MoleJuly 14, 2009

Oh boy – I need a vacation 🙂

So, the big eye sore on this chart for me today was that monster divergence which did not resolve (yet). I’ll chalk it up to the obvious tape painting that ensued courtesy of our rabid market making friends, which was easy to do since there was practically zero participation. Whenever I see a flatline like that I just know my resolve is going to be tested.

I was bugging my Zero subs all day about this and that – but the main message I wanted to convey was that I stuck with my guns and didn’t falter at an obvious OPX week tape painting attempt. Yeah, maybe they shake out July put holders but that’s exactly why I got August puts 😉

Program Trading Update:

geronimo/ES: +5 (2 winners out of 2 trades)

Nothing much has changed since this morning’s wave count update, so if you want to know my evil master plan you know where to look. There won’t be a post until tomorrow morning – I’m off to the gym to burn some abs!

Finally, if you haven’t already please check out this afternoon’s post and the newly issued Code Rat Activation.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Osso

    Qs going up….but INTC unchanged…is it halted…???

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Q's up 1.5% – crazy shit that is

  • blahblah2

    yes, it's halted

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like it will be a good day for bulls on WED.But lets see what the conference call says for INTC.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I'm ok being short into tomorrow, but also covering tomorrow:

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/micromanagem

  • molecool

    You mean – actively halted? What happened?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I went long AIG at the close. IT seems it likes to run to the upside after hours.Look at yesterdays run.

  • pricey

    Yes, so GS can get it at the right price

  • blahblah2

    I think it's just for the earnings report. It showed up on my screen as being halted before the earnings news came out.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    LOL you couldn't find shares to short.. so now you went long – LOL

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Sector rotation day tomorrow possibly – from financials into tech

  • Osso

    spy 91.28

  • ropey

    looks like SPY 92 will fill tomorrow bah…oh well more shorting to be done sooner than i thought..

  • annamall

    Yes halted for news pending. They beat the street by .10 whopping cents! Another green day? YUM also beat! TACO bell (ahhhh I'd rather eat dirt)

  • bee01

    INTC crushed it, bulls are gonna party tomorrow.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I know. lol.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Chances are we will be flat for AH by 8pm ET

  • C C Rider

    I love Bradley turn days! LOL!! Ba-Bye 911

  • annamall

    YUM also beat, (the most disgusting food on the planet!) LOL

  • C C Rider

    YUMYUM!!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    So are you gonna play INTC AH like you do with other tickers post-earnings AH

  • Keirsten

    Quick chart on the Qs- working on filling that gap
    http://tinyurl.com/n7zks9

  • annamall

    LMOL their food is the worst in the planet for your health CC!! but if you're long, your'e loving it! heheeh

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    no. I dont trade stocks that are halted.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    did not see much parting after GS “crashed” it and bulls slept on it 🙂

  • annamall

    Yes sistah! I see that…thanks for the chart!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    INTC now open lol

  • annamall

    Oh my God look @ Intel! up 1.62

    It should get pinned @ 18 at OPX

  • Osso

    INTC……18…and running

  • annamall

    Off to the gym I can't watch this anymore…heheheh! I may need to get a NIGHT job. (wink wink)

  • Osso

    r u short ??

  • GDII

    intc good er. beat both rev and earning.

  • Coldwarvet

    Revising targets now – I see this going to 920-30 at once, and HOY is on the target screen. We may be in McHugh's new, final upwave (to 1000-1050), but I doubt that.
    Gotta admire the way they snookered in all the park bears with the “free food” signs plastered all over that Dow H/S.

  • lester

    Mole,
    It looks like we have moved well above your discomfort zone for SPY/SPX. I am trying to keep my cool about being short but it is not easy…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    AIG is moving higher AH just like yesterday…weeeeeeeee

  • Coldwarvet

    Night… is good.

    Overslept my alarm at 0230 coupla nights ago and missed my entry at 865 /ES – haven't wanted to “chase,” y'know -so sitting in cash, missing those “night moves.”

  • LostIllini

    Chill Bill….I'm shorter than Frog's hair and everything is going to be ok (at least tommorrow). You will get your trend down day with a healthy dose of whipsaw….no worries.

  • Osso

    spy 91.62

  • lester

    so major gap up and trend down…I'm OK with that

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I added long positions on the ES after hours. Im already up but I am putting this in with tight stops for the night, The good earnings may give bulls a reason to show off tomorrow

  • LostIllini

    Shouldn't gap up… the up move will exhaust itself tonight. The best situation is for an explosion at close, then the momentum slows down overnight and right around 4-5 am (eastern) it should start to turn negative. Small gap up, even, or wheels fall off and big red down. I'm not expecting a ton of movement.

  • stxinon

    Dear Mole,

    Upon your instructions, I have sent your email to colbert….
    but I am wondering why do you want to give your “Trend Following Idea” to all the people in the world….
    by making this guy famous…
    Good trading idea should not be given to public unless… you are pumping it up…
    How does that guy helps you in long run…

    Is it not against your philosophy of being evil….

  • C C Rider

    Come to Texas and I'll show you around my Health food store! Resveratrol may help.LOL!!

  • annamall

    Good move! 🙂

  • lester

    Thanks for the forecast. I am 35% short 65% cash. At least my shorts
    are all Sept short except for 5% of Aug SPY Puts.

  • http://kkmoney.blogspot.com kkmoney

    YUM down 4% AH…

  • annamall

    It's right @ Moles line in the sand Lester…he has been spot on for his analysis to a T lately 🙂 and here's joping he notices that someone notices! point up Mole!

  • C C Rider

    If it seems to easy, it probably is.

  • http://blackchartz.blogspot.com/ kchu

    91.6 on SPY, nothing is stopping this, last time i saw this happen FAZ tanked hard next day

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF making new highs AH.And of course AIG is chugging to the upside.WEEEEEEEEEEE

  • molecool

    I'm not pimping Trend Following – 99% of the public won't get what that means. His movie is about the future of this country and that people are being lied to. We need to spread a bit of truthiness in the face of blatant daily misinformation and outright lies by the MSM.

    So, my dear rats – if you haven't done yet – please send that email.

  • lester

    Anna, thanks for your support. I was so proud of myself for being up 5% last week, but now I am down 10% as of todays close (and will probably be down even more after gap up in AM). So I am pissed at my risk mgmt. The good new is that I have 65% cash which I can play to long side if this POS keeps going up. If the line-in-the-sand holds I could end up OK.

  • molecool

    Yeah, maybe we lose this one – meh….

    But if we do – the reward might be that we see higher highs for the year and that is really what I'm excited about 😉

    Anyway, it ain't over until the fat lady has sung. Stop stressing mate…

  • lester

    OK man

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Be cautious, they will hunt your stops at night.

    Full disclosure, sold all longs, sold more futures.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Anna, so you saw the huge gap up.
    It was low volume, so I faded it…might want to look at it.

    http://screencast.com/t/YwBOTTub

  • mrclam

    We're above mole's line in the sand now aren't we? His line was drawn on the SPX at 912 and we're at 910-911 on the /ES now.

  • Ghostdog

    People… People… We all need to relax… You, don't get everyone to the party by offering them nothing. I say we up the ante and start telling everyone there are strippers and free beer at this party. There aint enough people in this room for me yet. I wanna see a packed, sweaty, and difficult to breathe room here before we lock the door and tell them what's really going on! LOL

  • Fujisan

    Here is my 2 cents.

    1. Typically, Wednesday in OPX is the most bullish day.
    2. Major indices will come back to the nearest rounded numbers in OPX. So, my SPX projection for OPX remains to be 900.

    If you have short positions, don't close it upon the open tomorrow. It will come back down by Friday.

  • Fujisan

    Btw, did anyone have a chance to go long on EUR/USD on Mole's BB entry signal? I just took half off.

  • ckeltner

    100% cash atm. Oh so close, at 4:14 my order of 90 aug puts I was trying to fill came within a penny of hitting, then wtf bull rush happened at 4:15 so very glad it didn't hit haha. Will open short position tomorrow so hoping this doesn't fully blow over overnight so option players can get in on the fun.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    most bullish or most volatile?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    grabbed few Ks SRS 20.08 AH – really wanted to get it closer to 19.70, but…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the INDU is just at 8375, room to the upside still for my target of 8392 and the end of wave v. After that I expect wave C or iii of 3 down. What's to keep the markets from selling off significantly beginning tomorrow midday?

  • C C Rider

    If this is wave C, first target is 955 by OPEX or next Monday. A five leg motive wave to achieve 1040 would be 75, retrace 30, etcetc…Presuming the count is from 875. From a time and price standpoint, this would allow for a 4 week rally ending 8/5/09.

    Then load the short bus.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yeah, i'm taking the opportunity to sell most of my BGU here in the after hours. will save some for tomorrow's open

  • NewTrader3391

    Why the shorts are surprised, H/S pattern is still in play. This is nothing more than forming second left shoulder to have balanced H/S. If you have positioned in this way there is nothing to worry till they take out 930-950. I will keep my shorts till my stop is around 935. I am also fully hedged from 883. This is game not investment, just play safe and know they will go extreme to give most pain to both bears and bulls.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    didn't J&J poop the bed??

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yup
    at these tines – u have profit – u take it
    so much work for so little money – if I was not addict – I'd be sunbathing now…wait – I AM sunbathing!

  • Squidman

    Did not see it. Going to make a play tonight?

  • Teich50

    Does anyone think that INTC will sell off starting tomorrow from $18? Even without paying fines and assuming that they produce earnings of $0.20 per quarter, using a generous P/E of 20 will result in a share price of $16 only.

  • anotherone

    Done.

  • anotherone

    I had to step out for the last hour today. What kicked off the AH rocket higher?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    intc earnings

  • ropey

    expecting AIG to not do much this week into friday not seeing more than 15 and no less than 14 ( unless BAC/GE knock the cover off the ball ).

  • ropey

    Mole it maybe worth flagging recent gaps on the 4 indexes when they are created – i really should write some software or indicator to track these, it's a really useful and fairly reliable play to gauge moves/short-term trends, the MM's love to fill them and that one at 92-93 was always pissing me off the last week or two….looks like it'll get filled tomorrow pretty quickly….all i've noticed is that when all 4 tend to have gaps you get this ripple effect as one after the other piles in to fill their respective gaps, good news is, after this one, we're pretty clean either side for large moves apart from the monster that's going to be created tomorrow and of course this will get filled at some point in the near future either by friday or sometime next week me thinks…

  • ropey

    probably pinned to 18 or 17 if IBM or GOOG fumbles which is unlikely – right now the earnings season has been better than expected…

  • Osso

    count should be from 869…i think

  • ropey

    would love to think 900 but the OI isn't showing that..too many bets on 900 or below so i'd be surprised if they took it so close. I don't believe it's going below 900 but the range was 950 to 880 or so – taking the midpoint makes it 91-92 imo. Really depends on IBM/GOOG/BAC and depends where we are on that right shoulder formation.

  • Osso

    912 is an EW pivot and allowing 3/4 points margin….would put the rally on 916…..but with further earnings reports, and a break of the 62% retracement….seems the count is up to further highs, hence a triple ZZ.

  • Squidman

    E-mail sent to Colbert, love shared, time for a nap to prepare for the night prowl. EOD bids were so obvious the INTC earnings were outperform.

  • anotherone

    Thanks.

  • Fujisan

    Statistically OPX Wed has the most “upside” day.

  • Duuuuuude

    I am sure somebody has posted this $SPX chart somewhere. It coincides with Moles 912 line in the sand.

    http://screencast.com/t/JmY5gnBn2U

  • nsysblh

    I was just looking on my tos charts for /es, and I drew pretty much the same channel on them a while back. We bounced off the bottom since then, and if we bounce off the top now, that would be impressive….plus the down trend would be intact. Guess I may buy some Aug puts tommorrow at open if we don't selloff this overnight…at this point with SPY max pain at $90, there is not a lot of reason to move very far by Friday.

    I'm kinda surprised we waited until ah to get this high.

  • http://tacharts101.blogspot.com j0sh1ngU
  • http://tacharts101.blogspot.com j0sh1ngU

    should be drawn like this. see post above for all

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_RHfXXuyE7EA/Sl0MvXWZa

  • annamall

    Cute! Love the prowl part! 🙂

  • annamall

    Done! 🙂

  • Duuuuuude

    You gotta take down some puts at 910.

  • annamall

    Lester, you truely have been doing better and everyone sees that! You should see that too, you are becoming more calm and less emotional! that doesn't mean every trade will start to work, but you'll see a difference. Let me ask you, do you hedge your portfolio? I ask because yes, it can limit your direction on the upside, but limits your risk on the down.

    I need to hedge better lately to be honest, the tape is freaking me out! LOL :-&

  • annamall

    Hey C, we went to 912.75 on futs, (Mole had 912.50) jeez he's good! heheheh so far hasn't broken, so far, so good! 🙂

  • Fujisan

    That's futures so INDU might have already made your target.

  • mrclam

    Anna, which chart are you looking at? I was looking at this one:
    https://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/20

  • pierre66

    I was traveling today or would have used your strategy to take a long EUR/USD position.

    It look like it worked again, at least for a 50 pip gain up to now……

  • annamall

    that's it C! it got right to 912.75, and bounced off. I have been a very bad bear 🙂 I bought a INTC call spread July 17/18 before bell for .20.
    It should pin @ 18.00 by OPX, then I will make .80 a nice return
    Bad bear bad bear! 😉

  • mrclam

    nicely done on the intc call spread. anna, double check that chart, that chart is of the SPX, not the /ES!!! we're way beyond his line in the sand now! we'll see what happens on cash tomorrow!

  • annamall

    thank you Steve! I see it didn't break that 912.75 which is my line in the sand, I will close out most longs tomorrow (God I hate being a closet bull :))
    Google I am thinking will pin @ 430.00 or 440.00 ( i am long the 420 short the 440 July's

  • Fujisan

    I think we would have a reversal tomorrow so we might have another entry signal.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    alrighty, I know what you mean, Ill be happy to be a bull when it makes sense, but until then I hate putting on my bull suit—it's hot and smells like bull. But I was long futures into that after day gap up…..sweet!

    I am not doing any of those options spreads, butterfly's, iron condors….yet.

  • Fujisan

    No, this will probably reverse tomorrow so another entry is coming soon.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    I am new to FAZ so appreciate the backup charting. hey, you ain't no joker….you are a chartist!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no wonder why so many people confused – alternate waves on most stocks!

  • EDC

    social mood shall take heed in China
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090714/ap_on_re_as

    i thought there was green shoots galore…

  • molecool

    Has the cash index opened yet?

    No!

    So, please stop stressing guys. Yes, we'll take it up the ass tomorrow most likely. That was the risk shorting risking candles during OPX, especially with GS reporting. But let's not panic and worry about tomorrow until we get there.

  • molecool

    Can you send me an email or something next time? I don't watch this thing all day…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    For all you EW'ers out there – you'll like this one.

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/head-and-sho

  • rhae

    Not confused, just no quality set-ups… no trades today, only stops adjustment tonight

  • rhae

    could be ropey Option chain OI 17 strike calls has the most interest, Puts OI 16 ( the other sise)looks sickly… so not much action there, at this instant…. I usually keep an eye on the option chains during opx. exp. week

  • Fujisan

    Will do. It's currently forming a rising wedge so I'm expecting a reversal possibly tomorrow.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “Widening income gaps, corrupt local administrations and policies that seem to favor the well-connected few over the disadvantaged many”
    Not sure that was about China – sounds all too familiar

  • molecool

    Is this you? Because – I have no idea what this motive wave is supposed to be – 1 and 4 cannot overlap – that is one of the ironclad rules in EWT.

  • moneyfarm

    This coincides with what I'm seeing on /ES. It's possible that 912.75 might have been the high as we are right at the downtrend from the June highs. There is also an overbought neg divergence in the RSI(9) on 2hr chart. It's also possible that we see a head fake up to the 918 level. I started a position in Aug SPY 920 puts at yesterdays close and will be looking to add to those later this week. My chart is kind of sloppy, but this is what I'm looking at.
    http://tinyurl.com/mkl3pm

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    In the post;

    “Note that the degree to which Wave 4 would extend down must be wrong in the context of EW theory but the forecast's purpose is to TIME the market – not predict its value. As the mantra goes, 'I can give you price or time but not both'.”

  • moneyfarm

    Anybody trading the VIX? I bought Aug 30 calls after the close today. If/when this falling wedge breaks there will be some nice upside. I'll keep a stop under 24.
    http://screencast.com/t/yJl34gItX
    Also, I just recently started following $VIX:$VXV, but readings at these levels are showing the the $VIX oversold/equity sell signal.
    http://tinyurl.com/mkl3pm

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Anyone out there Tuesday night with any currency pairs they are looking at?
    ES is just hunting around popping stops.

  • Squidman

    Should have stayed long, most seem in the middle now so not a good entry. Certainly not going to short. ES seems contained by resistance, so far. Looks like we get our right shoulder tomorrow, maybe with a little hunchback for good measure.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    has the “do not cross line” been crossed?

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77
  • goldpackers

    New high today on S&P is 5 waves up from the recent low. After a brief pullback into Thursday, we attack 930/940 into 7-17/22 to (hopefully complete an X wave) complete the corrective rally. Above 932 may be a bull trap as below 880 was a bear trap. May need to negate the H&S pattern before we can drop in another ABC if bearish. Have to add shorts into time and price frame but if not working by the end of next week then…
    The drop to 869 was an ABC correction so this is either an X wave or we are going to new highs.

    If we do not reverse from 930/940 then the mkt is up into August 4/13 and 1000/1040.

    Good Luck!

  • Lordted

    Your Do Not Cross line has a gap above it at the next fib up 61.8. (922.50)

    If we get to 922.50 that is a good short area with 932.50 as ultimate stop.

    We could of course be leaving wave 4 low behind us at 870….

    Could it can't it it's all probabilities and not a rule that can't be fkd or broken

  • stevechelt

    Interesting piece about the VIX & VXV action here –
    http://declineandfallofwesterncivilization.blog

    quote – “following up on this post of three weeks ago — h/t to adam warner for noticing that the front-month forward contract for the VIX is trading at a premium level that has in the past indicated proximity to a market top. particularly interesting is how the premium is continuing to expand even as the S&P trades lower from the june high. this holds true of the 3-month forward as well, and a similar condition was a feature of the august 2008 top.”

    I also watch the VIX:VXV and have a small intermediate term short open from late June. This was the first sell signal according to my chart, now the ratio has dropped much further to 0.846 as of the close yesterday, yet the S&P500 price has not matched June. I will short again once there is a confirmed turn up back into my MA envelope on the daily vix:vxv chart.

    All my other shorts fried yesterday but my one long was very happy. Thank god I trade micro-sized.

  • Autopsias

    Wow, this is slow today! No Europeans around? 🙂

    Or is everyone hiding behind their desks after yesterday's after hours action?

    We already crossed Mole's line, unless after hours doesn't count, not sure…

    I've been doing some vwap band scalps as always and am short from 1475.5 on NQ… But do see a good chance we go higher today, perhaps 1482.5…

  • katzo7

    There is a failure of the head & shoulders on the SPX. This could portend a continued up move.
    http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/15/violatio

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    the moment of truth is upon us fellow ratburgers!
    If following equities will not be able to move higher than referenced levels before noon – I'll be all over long puts
    BIDU @303
    AMZN 84.5
    GOOG 428

    and long calls SRS if holds 19.70

    SPX 912 is important, but even more important SPX 915.80 on WEEKLY CLOSE (/es 914.75 today is important as well)
    good luck – we are going to need it today (unless most of you are about to desert short train 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    ready for TOS (widely known as “not their fault”) FREEZES?

  • katzo7

    Good thoughts David.
    This is either the real thing or Disneyland. I like that you put a time frame on your decision making, why noon?

  • Huck

    I really like the channel boundaries on your spx chart. That's what I'm thinking – the H&S violation is not as important as a breach of that channel with a close over 911-912. If we close over that by more than a couple points, I'll take my punishment and cover all shorts. Best case scenario for bears is we kiss the top line and fall to the bottom of the channel (~840) by the end of next week. That's where I'd like to cover in the intermediate term.

  • VirginiaJim

    If you are a “purist” the H&S was never confirmed so it isn't broken. Edwards/Magee, fathers of TA and the H&S page 69:

    “Nevetheless, the H&S is not complete, and an important Reversal of Trend is not conclusively signaled until the neckline has been penetrated downside by a decisive margin. Until the neckline is broken, a certain percentage of H&S developments-perhaps 20%- are saved.”

    Page 64:
    Referring to the neckline with emphais added “…..a CLOSE below that line by an amount approximately equivalent to 3% of the stock's market price. This is the CONFIRMATION or BREAKOUT.”

    Trend line breaks by a margin were first (to my recollection) suggested by Jesse Livermore. E&M adopted the arbitrary 3%, but that's the definition. A simple break doesn't do it and an intraday break doesn't do it. Contemporary H&S formulations are less reliable by not developing this nuance IMO.

    You'll find that the H&S was never confirmed, hence, it was never broken according to the traditional definitive work on the H&S.

    All that work on the H&S is not lost however. Pg 70:

    “A H&S which does not 'work' is a warning that, even though there is still life in the situation, a genuine turn is near.”

    It could be that a higher high than the June 11 price will occr today. There could be a parabolic spike to a new high that entirely invalidates the incomplete H&S. But the cause of the incomplete H&S pattern that we've just seen, e.g. distribution, is likely at work and will ultimately assert itself. At least, that's my bet. Just an opinion.

    Good luck, Jim

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “WHy noon?”
    that would as much pain as I can take 🙂
    Well, I am short the market, but heavily hedged with oil,energy,aggs longs

    then… noon …
    highs and lows are emotions, right? closing price the only thing that matters for position trade?
    If so – my decision making is based on a lot of similarly looking 4 hours charts and “final decision bar” is due at noon
    http://screencast.com/t/GxWvPouRo4H
    http://screencast.com/t/rr1yZBvuQEy
    http://screencast.com/t/cRipWUwoPB

    thou, as you can see – I mostly referring to nasdaq stocks,
    as for SPX minyan – that decision point is still somewhere tomorrow – that was/is perfectly orchestrated manipulation (who cares really, we just have to deal with that) and it is hard to apply any logic to scam

    P.S. I see WAY TOO MANY bullish trades in energy, oil, alt en, aggs and FINANCIALS – then the question would be – “WHAT will pull SPX down?” – and I wish I was long 'cause I have NO answer

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    for SPX chart – refer to my latest post on my site.
    Also, bullish breakout from downtrending (bullish) channel is not the end of the world – it can always go bust.
    As for H&S on SPX – I am not even looking – I ignore “make belief” things…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Glad to see someone who knows “small details” – hat off to you

  • Douala

    DavidDT

    I just checked pre market and most of those levels are already broken. How does this change your game plan at all?

  • katzo7

    A agree with David's statements down below. Great research Jim. But I still do not trust this market.

  • annamall

    Morning all, I woke up late to see the futs again not looking good for us bears! Jeezz this is painful. But yesterday I said I had to protect my capital and become “A Closet Bulls” only temporarily! I put on APA Calls yesterday and an INTC Call spread 17/18 (since I think it will pin @ 18 by OPX) for .20, if it pins @ 18.00 then I make .80 (not bad) I also have GOOG 420/440/460 calls spread.
    I am still long SPY Puts and POT, but things are not looking good.

    Looks like Goog and Bidu are above David's levels arlready!

    Good luck with nasty tape today, I am now full disclosure 70 long 30 short.

  • Lordted

    Nice to hear that Dave.. Have found in the past that when H&S (particularly) patterns are so obvious everyone can see it, it fails… Or morphs into something less easy to trade… If we can see all these patterns and signals Elliot etc, so can the manipulators.

    Good luck folks

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “move higher than referenced levels before noon”
    should have really been

    “CLOSE higher than referenced levels before noon” sorry, my bad

  • charles_smith

    Good move to the long side, annamall. Like I posted here a few days ago, SPX target is 940 just to take out shorts gathering at 931, then after a B-C dip the assault on 956. there will be no shorts left standing by the time this is over in a few weeks. The tipoff was the MSM touting the H&S 24/7.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    see my reply below to Douala

  • annamall

    Thanks Charles, you know you have to trade what you see and not what you hope! I will take off more shorts on weakness till the 930 area which could be today even.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    also, for each of the levels I am watching exists “risk level” applicable on individual basis based on current stock volatility

    …even thou I am “closet bull” as well – still…where are the pain killers????!!!!

  • annamall

    Hey K
    Haven't you ever heard in the “Western” “I will meet you to face off at high noon!” LOL Mooooo

  • annamall

    See it! 🙂 High noon, pistols and the old west! heheh

  • annamall

    I have a few extra if you need some! 😉 although I have been eating them like candy and chasing with Stoli!

  • katzo7

    See below

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    is not it interesting that SRS low is right at tdst 19.79?

    http://screencast.com/t/M32tikYy

  • VirginiaJim

    Thanks. Like your blog and watch it closely.

  • Osso

    hi there…tks. very much, again..!!!

  • katzo7

    Yes I have seen those. Love spaghetti Westerns, you know I love Italian!
    What is all this moooing about? Did you have streak for dinner? Or have cheeseburger? Or did you see a cow somewhere?
    Good luck today. Another F*Upped day.

  • Osso

    Bot some BGZ 34.92…..

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I'm not panicking as long as there is not a meaningful overthrow of the channels. Tops are no place to become a bull and bottoms are no place to become a bear.

    spx 60 min: http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    dow 60 min: http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • VirginiaJim

    Thanks. I work on the details as a defense against my dimentia. Too much information, too few basal nuclei.

  • 1981er

    Looks like we're about 20 or so pts away from an old Fib level on the /NQ. Will be interesting to see if 1495~ holds…

  • Osso

    yes…based on that 60 min. chart….although it seems dow is hitting some above the down uptrendline, took a position in BGZ.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    tru dat

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    screw cowboys – I take bazooka to the gun fight!

  • annamall

    Those with J Wayne heheh was I was a kid my Dad watched those!
    No I was with a chicken last night and I said MOOOOOOOO because I am not a cow, but a closet bull! A true MOOOOOOO is fat. ROTFLMAO

  • springheel_jack

    Unless we are going to break out of the channel, this should turn very soon.

    Decent stoch support for a turn here.

  • Osso

    watching GDX at the 20 dma…..37.50 approx.
    Already above…but, hey, there is too many bullsitos around …in all mkts. today….Guess the USD will tell the story.
    This is not the season for goldstocks running impulsively.
    Either China is buying goldstocks/metal,dumping dollars…or else it will be a trap….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    day aint over yet 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    5 min INDU, this pop should be wave 5 and should end around the top of the channel on the 60 min chart I posted below

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    glad i hedged with GLD

  • katzo7

    I know, watching all stochs/MACDs peak now.

  • Keirsten

    Morning Rats- 92.26 is gap resistance on SPY should we approach it today. G/L today! 🙂

  • innatedc

    First of all you know they are shorting this gap….the question is will they pop it back up after the fill ala OPEX fuckery style. Or will they continue the plunge down (which could possibly surprise alot of people). Opex weeks are garbage and you can't put meaning to them. It's an exercise in tape painting. Better to stay out altogether if you ask me.

  • ropey

    Hey Keirsten, ack, how do you ladies get out of spreads for the target profit mentiond in TOS? Everytime i do it, i lose about 50% of the profit, it is using the mid-point of the spread..?? seems impossible to make decent coin even though i have been spot on several times…

  • C.C. Rider

    Cover while you can beartarts, 950 is looming. This is a bonafide beartrap.

  • annamall

    Took off the Intel spread for and .81 profit paid .20 (I'll take it!) Google is smoking!

  • ropey

    Hmm i guess you have to leg out of the spread in parts to maximise the profit? -grrrr

  • annamall

    Do you mean BF's Ropey?

  • ropey

    anna how do you maximise the profit, i had a spread on AIG with full profit and sold it for what TOS told me was the mid and it gave me back 30% of the damn profit 🙁 – happened several times now……do you leg out in each leg separately?

  • annamall

    No not neccessarily, Ie: I have a Goog 420/440/460 BF July. If by Friday it is at 440 and I can't sell it, I will get exercised and take my maximum profit of 16.00. (my initial investment was 4.00)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    went long GS Aug140p@3.35

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We are going to the moon

  • springheel_jack

    I think we should also consider the possibility that the H&S neckline has not yet been violated at all.

    If we consider the neckline as 879 rather than 890 on a strictly horizontal neckline, then there has not yet been a daily close below it.

    On that basis we could still be building the right shoulder and that might well go on for another week. If we closed above 932 SPX that would negate the H&S on that scenario though.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    You are funny guy 🙂

  • annamall

    was it a Vertical or BF?

  • C.C. Rider

    You my bitch now? J/K!!

  • annamall

    I hate to say it! But I agree with you Clapton man! 🙂

  • lester

    I am still 35% short; 65% cash. Watching to see if I should close my shorts and go long. I know the obvious answer is go long. But no decision until 10:15.

  • ropey

    it was a vertical, TOS said profit was X, i sold it as th mid-point and i got 30% of what it said, commissions are never included so i don't see where the huge discrepancy is – happened on several spreads now – i can only thing i have to sell each leg independently to maximise the profit, i don't get how you can get the profit it says in the accounts tab…

  • GDII

    from the first 20min, i think we will fill the gap. my question is where it will go next, and is it tradable?

  • lester

    So are you saying if we clear 92.26 then we go higher?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    added to last night's ES longs this morning. I think this thing has some steam behind it

  • C.C. Rider

    This calls for THUNDERSTRUCK!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvoeeq-BH4w

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    long QID/SRS all in

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • nyxjf

    ouch. Just took a loss and sold everything.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    u were suppose to ask “Funny HOW?” 🙁

  • lester

    alpha, we are just above the channel for SPY. Do you think there is still a chance we turn around and head down?

  • annamall

    That sounds strange R? I put in my limit sell order on INTC for .81 and it filled for .81, I don't like to leg out most of the time. You can lose money on the spread to the 'THUGS' oh I mean MM''s

    I would call them and inquire, if you have a limit order, you should get that or better (in some case I actually have gotten more)

    Sorry I can't be more helpful on that one.

  • milingz

    Morning rats…still channel bound. Picked up Aug 90 Puts @ 20.8

    http://img382.imageshack.us/img382/3488/spychan

  • ropey

    sorry i'm being a donkey, the P/L since open was $0 for some reason i thought i had lost that, it's one thing they don't summarize final profits/losses per trade anywhere??? seems it's just grouped under per symbol?

    Anyway yes i made the right amount of cash so ok i didn't lose it phew 🙂

  • annamall

    Scaling out of mot shorts on any weakness, obviously will keep myself hedged, but as of now, I am trading what I see and not want I want.

    whhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa 🙁

  • Keirsten

    Love it David. 😉

    Looks like a nice short squeeze for the MMs to unload some shares.

  • ropey

    yep see above, figured it out, just didn't click today ( need coffee ) …i was trying to look for the P/L on the closed trade to see final profit – it's buried away but grouped under symbol – cant see it per trade

  • Coldwarvet

    Beginning to sample some puts here… If this breaks materially above 925, will exit.

  • LostIllini

    Lester How much more is it going to go up without correction? I would wait for at the very least a pull back before you bail. Then SIT ON YOUR HANDS!!!!!!!!

  • lester

    this sucks, still in my Puts, for now. I am gonna have to sell these for a loss (unless this POS turns soon). what are you into on the long side?

  • C.C. Rider

    925 IS NEXT ZONE OF RESISTANCE. Would see a melt up on short covering if breached. Throw all OPEX beliefs out the window, this will not be typical.

  • lester

    well I am not going to SOH if we are heading back over 930

  • annamall

    Sorry Lester, we bears just didn't stick with it! 🙁 I just sold my Intel spread, that was long so that's gone) long Goog, APA, K, CTIC
    and just dumped everything but a few VPS on SPY.

    This is going to get brutal, I think the bear case may be done till 950 now.

    whhhhaaaaa

  • Lordted

    Very close to closing S&P gap from last week

  • lester

    well I want to make money up or down, so I am gonna jump on long (not sure when) cuz I do not want to miss the ride.

  • milingz

    Got out of those at a loss…dont fight the trend, i suppose.

  • katzo7

    Anyone wathcing GDX. I f**kin missed it again. WTF didn't set an email alert? It hit my low.
    @#@$$@%^% &@#$

    DO NOT BUY IT NOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I think it will pull back to the 36.40 level for the EW4 down on smaller time frames. Then go in long.

  • GDII

    i certainly agree with u 914.5 is the key. from the tape in the first half hour, i think it is an effective break out with good volume pattern.
    risk reward wise, i dare not short here.

  • annamall

    Do you have Zero?

  • anotherone

    Well, I just closed my Aug SPY Puts, so I'm calling a top right here.

  • ropey

    nods i'm not sure we go much higher but prepared to be proven wrong

  • Keirsten

    Gap resistance on DIA @ 85.22

  • lester

    No, but I have evil.rat. I tried zero but I could not interpret the signal properly

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    First negative tick of the day- LOL

  • LostIllini

    Why do you think we are going back over 930?

  • GDII

    i am making wild guess here. from now on, everyday we are going to have doji. (what? lol)
    every big er is going to impact the market by opening gap only. lol

  • Lordted

    I'm trying shorts myself right here YM

  • EDC

    first negative ticks on the day… 40 min into trading… takeaway what you will.
    it really means nothing.

  • Fujisan

    OPX Wed is typically the most bullish day and it should turn around tomorrow. My OPX target is still 900.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Lester we'll see, right now this unfortunately looks wave 3ish to me. I'm not doing anything but watching. we've filled the gap on the SPX, so maybe we get a turn down. If those of us who are short are wrong, then we need to decide when to correct our mistake. If this is wave 1 up then it may be best to wait for wave 2 correction at this point. but for the time being I'm watching. the dow must close below 8408, spx 812.5 for the bearish case

  • annamall

    Heheheh I closed all but 5 of my spy put spreads, and closed POT (they are going to pin that one @ 90 I think by OPX)

  • lester

    I am not sure we are at all, but there is a hell of a lot of bullishness out there today on this site. I am still in my Puts and watching. If we break 92.4 for 15 minutes I close Puts and go long.

  • EDC

    you beat me to the post! lol

    +1

  • Osso

    We have 2 LS in SPX 931 and 925……and one RS at 932.
    We could be making the 2nd RS at 924/25…..

  • lester

    funny thing is I could go in all short right now and ride SPY down to 91. The paper would still say that it was an up day.

  • annamall

    oh ok, don't go short here today, Like many are, on any weakness get out of shorts would be my suggestion Lester, but don't panic out. with anything around 140 or less on /YM may be our only weakness IMHO

  • nummy

    mole that wave 3 you mentioned a couple of posts ago hitting the 161.8% fib line is now hitting the 261.8% fib line (spx 921.4)

  • lester

    this is a bizzare case where SPY 5 min MACD has gone red but market is still moving up. This divergence could lead to a trun down but not sure. Comments?

  • annamall

    Where is Anthem?? Looks like Google will pin to 440??? that would be awesome!

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Good news! Your 401-k will be ship-shape in two shakes of a lambs tail…..

    http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/artic

    PHEW….that's a relief!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    and as always during the time of great distress and panic none even wondering where our fearless leader is – I bet he's got no power

  • annamall

    Gee why does CNBC have on this guy in underarmour, I can't concentrate! ;-P

  • standard_and_poor

    5% short. Will exit remaining shorts on any pullbacks.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    spx rising vix rising

  • annamall

    where have you been sweetie??? Glad to see you! IMHO smart move 🙂

  • katzo7

    IMO do not use 5 minute to trade off of UNLESS you are a good day trader. Watch the 15 minute lester.
    And I do not see the MACD going red? Do not know what you are talking about. Post a chart? Are you looking at the histogram?

  • annamall

    I think he's shell shocked! 😉

  • Lordted

    Sound logical.. I'm out of short. I would only test it

  • annamall

    We may get another short squeeze to the upside, yes even from here!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    because its a circus act

  • katzo7

    Fujisan,
    In my 15 minute SPX I see the oscillator on the EW5 peak now above the EW3 oscillater level, not good for any on the short side. This means IMO that we will get a recount on the EWs on the 15 minute at some point in the near future, pushing this EW5 point even higher.

  • 1981er

    That would be great! 450 even better, I've got a 420/ 450 spread put on a while ago.

  • lester

    White line and red line are both heading down and the white has crossed
    the red heading down. This is on TOS.

  • annamall

    LOL 🙂

  • lester

    sold my Aug Puts. Still got Sept SPY Puts.

  • NoFate

    What a sad little piece of journalism …

    Premise of the article: Your 401k is OK because:
    1) It is doing better than the market which is down >40% from the peak.
    2) You have been adding more cash!

    This is kind of like the old joke …what is the quickest way to make a million dollars? Start with 2 million…

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • annamall

    I am thinking it will pin @ 440 or 450, either way Thursday (evening)we will have a good idea 🙂

    I am in 420/440/460 July call BF

  • Fujisan

    SPX broke the downside channel that they have been sitting for the past 7 weeks. It will come back to retest the trendline, which is about 900 area.

  • Squidman

    Look who's talking, sheesh! Trend up day, pullbacks should be shallow.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    scaling out of FSLR jul calls

  • katzo7

    I agree, at some point there is today's gap to fill. But will it be after
    OPEX, on Monday? You said the Monday OPEX is usually tumultuous.

  • rhae

    Sold my BGU @ 34 could get to 34.27 but starting to look struggly. I just hate giving anything back… not bad 14% a few days… Earning season, OP EXP… I have no guts…

  • katzo7

    Agree, it is starting now on the 5 min. but watch 15 min. for confirmation, otherwise a head fake!

  • Keirsten

    Out of long scalps cuz I can't babysit them today. VIX sitting my target at bottom of bullish wedge on weekly painted a hammer and now a working on a doji on the 60 min. Funny when they use a gap to fill a gap. Something to think about pattern-wise and I need to look long and hard at island bottom formations for clarification about it. Can definitely include several days of trading in the pattern, but not sure about the cup shape that formed it (if it's an island bottom at all).

    For some reason I turned on CNBC this morning and left it running in the background… if I have to hear about that f-ing Haine's bottom one more time I'm going to throw the telly out my 2nd floor window. LOL Have a good rest of the morning Rats, BBL.

  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO HAHAHAHAH MOOOOOO! what a ugly bottom it must be too girl!

  • standard_and_poor

    Hi sweetness.

    ________________________________

  • TomOfTheNorth

    To call that a piece of journalism is a real stretch. It's definitely a piece of crap though….lol

  • Blind_Squirrel

    U never know, he could be going to the gym to work off the
    baby phat too and just not flirting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Blind_Squirrel

    See how it feels!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • katzo7

    There is a failure of the head & shoulders on the SPX. This could portend a continued up move.
    http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/15/violatio

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    the moment of truth is upon us fellow ratburgers!
    If following equities will not be able to move higher than referenced levels before noon – I'll be all over long puts
    BIDU @303
    AMZN 84.5
    GOOG 428

    and long calls SRS if holds 19.70

    SPX 912 is important, but even more important SPX 915.80 on WEEKLY CLOSE (/es 914.75 today is important as well)
    good luck – we are going to need it today (unless most of you are about to desert short train 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    ready for TOS (widely known as “not their fault”) FREEZES?

  • katzo7

    Good thoughts David.
    This is either the real thing or Disneyland. I like that you put a time frame on your decision making, why noon?

  • VirginiaJim

    If you are a “purist” the H&S was never confirmed so it isn't broken. Edwards/Magee, fathers of TA and the H&S page 69:

    “Nevetheless, the H&S is not complete, and an important Reversal of Trend is not conclusively signaled until the neckline has been penetrated downside by a decisive margin. Until the neckline is broken, a certain percentage of H&S developments-perhaps 20%- are saved.”

    Page 64:
    Referring to the neckline with emphais added “…..a CLOSE below that line by an amount approximately equivalent to 3% of the stock's market price. This is the CONFIRMATION or BREAKOUT.”

    Trend line breaks by a margin were first (to my recollection) suggested by Jesse Livermore. E&M adopted the arbitrary 3%, but that's the definition. A simple break doesn't do it and an intraday break doesn't do it. Contemporary H&S formulations are less reliable by not developing this nuance IMO.

    You'll find that the H&S was never confirmed, hence, it was never broken according to the traditional definitive work on the H&S.

    All that work on the H&S is not lost however. Pg 70:

    “A H&S which does not 'work' is a warning that, even though there is still life in the situation, a genuine turn is near.”

    It could be that a higher high than the June 11 price will occr today. There could be a parabolic spike to a new high that entirely invalidates the incomplete H&S. But the cause of the incomplete H&S pattern that we've just seen, e.g. distribution, is likely at work and will ultimately assert itself. At least, that's my bet. Just an opinion.

    Good luck, Jim

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “WHy noon?”
    that would as much pain as I can take 🙂
    Well, I am short the market, but heavily hedged with oil,energy,aggs longs

    then… noon …
    highs and lows are emotions, right? closing price the only thing that matters for position trade?
    If so – my decision making is based on a lot of similarly looking 4 hours charts and “final decision bar” is due at noon
    http://screencast.com/t/GxWvPouRo4H
    http://screencast.com/t/rr1yZBvuQEy
    http://screencast.com/t/cRipWUwoPB

    thou, as you can see – I mostly referring to nasdaq stocks,
    as for SPX minyan – that decision point is still somewhere tomorrow – that was/is perfectly orchestrated manipulation (who cares really, we just have to deal with that) and it is hard to apply any logic to scam

    P.S. I see WAY TOO MANY bullish trades in energy, oil, alt en, aggs and FINANCIALS – then the question would be – “WHAT will pull SPX down?” – and I wish I was long 'cause I have NO answer

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    for SPX chart – refer to my latest post on my site.
    Also, bullish breakout from downtrending (bullish) channel is not the end of the world – it can always go bust.
    As for H&S on SPX – I am not even looking – I ignore “make belief” things…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Glad to see someone who knows “small details” – hat off to you

  • Douala

    DavidDT

    I just checked pre market and most of those levels are already broken. How does this change your game plan at all?

  • katzo7

    A agree with David's statements down below. Great research Jim. But I still do not trust this market.
    Please correct me if i am working the formula incorrectly.
    Penetration of neckline=892.82
    Close on 7/08 and on 7//09=879.56 & 878.45
    892.82 x 3%= 26.78
    Change (892-879)=14 less than half of the required 3%.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Morning all, I woke up late to see the futs again not looking good for us bears! Jeezz this is painful. But yesterday I said I had to protect my capital and become “A Closet Bull” only temporarily! I put on APA Calls yesterday and an INTC Call spread 17/18 (since I think it will pin @ 18 by OPX) for .20, if it pins @ 18.00 then I make .80 (not bad) I also have GOOG 420/440/460 calls spread.
    I am still long SPY Puts and POT, but things are not looking good.

    Looks like Goog and Bidu are above David's levels arlready!

    Good luck with nasty tape today, I am now full disclosure 70 long 30 short.

  • Lordted

    Nice to hear that Dave.. Have found in the past that when H&S (particularly) patterns are so obvious everyone can see it, it fails… Or morphs into something less easy to trade… If we can see all these patterns and signals Elliot etc, so can the manipulators.

    Good luck folks

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “move higher than referenced levels before noon”
    should have really been

    “CLOSE higher than referenced levels before noon” sorry, my bad

  • charles_smith

    Good move to the long side, annamall. Like I posted here a few days ago, SPX target is 940 just to take out shorts gathering at 931, then after a B-C dip the assault on 956. there will be no shorts left standing by the time this is over in a few weeks. The tipoff was the MSM touting the H&S 24/7.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    see my reply below to Douala

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Thanks Charles, you know you have to trade what you see and not what you hope! I will take off more shorts on weakness till the 930 area which could be today even.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    also, for each of the levels I am watching exists “risk level” applicable on individual basis based on current stock volatility

    …even thou I am “closet bull” as well – still…where are the pain killers????!!!!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hey K
    Haven't you ever heard in the “Westerns” “I will meet you to face off at high noon!” LOL Mooooo

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    See it! 🙂 High noon, pistols and the old west! heheh

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I have a few extra if you need some! 😉 although I have been eating them like candy and chasing with Stoli!

  • katzo7

    See below

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    is not it interesting that SRS low is right at tdst 19.79?

    http://screencast.com/t/M32tikYy

  • VirginiaJim

    Thanks. Like your blog and watch it closely.

  • Osso

    hi there…tks. very much, again..!!!

  • katzo7

    Yes I have seen those. Love spaghetti Westerns, you know I love Italian!
    What is all this moooing about? Did you have streak for dinner? Or have cheeseburger? Or did you see a cow somewhere?
    Good luck today. Another F*Upped day.

  • Osso

    Bot some BGZ 34.92…..
    Now that everybody thinks that everybody knows abt. the H&S…a contrarian view is that it will play out….

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I'm not panicking as long as there is not a meaningful overthrow of the channels. Tops are no place to become a bull and bottoms are no place to become a bear.

    spx 60 min: http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    dow 60 min: http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • VirginiaJim

    Thanks. I work on the details as a defense against my dimentia. Too much information, too few basal nuclei.

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    Looks like we're about 20 or so pts away from an old Fib level on the /NQ. Will be interesting to see if 1495~ holds…

  • Osso

    yes…based on that 60 min. chart….although it seems dow is hitting some above the down uptrendline, took a position in BGZ.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    tru dat

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    screw cowboys – I take bazooka to the gun fight!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Those with J Wayne heheh was I was a kid my Dad watched those!
    No I was with a chicken last night and I said MOOOOOOOO because I am not a cow, but a closet bull! A true MOOOOOOO is fat. ROTFLMAO

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Unless we are going to break out of the channel, this should turn very soon.

    Decent stoch support for a turn here.

  • Osso

    watching GDX at the 20 dma…..37.50 approx.
    Already above…but, hey, there is too many bullsitos around …in all mkts. today….Guess the USD will tell the story.
    This is not the season for goldstocks running impulsively.
    Either China is buying goldstocks/metal,dumping dollars…or else it will be a trap….

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    day aint over yet 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    5 min INDU, this pop should be wave 5 and should end around the top of the channel on the 60 min chart I posted below

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    glad i hedged with GLD

  • katzo7

    I know, watching all stochs/MACDs peak now.

  • Keirsten

    Morning Rats- 92.26 is gap resistance on SPY should we approach it today. G/L today! 🙂

  • innatedc

    First of all you know they are shorting this gap….the question is will they pop it back up after the fill ala OPEX fuckery style. Or will they continue the plunge down (which could possibly surprise alot of people). Opex weeks are garbage and you can't put meaning to them. It's an exercise in tape painting. Better to stay out altogether if you ask me.

  • ropey

    Hey Keirsten, ack, how do you ladies get out of spreads for the target profit mentiond in TOS? Everytime i do it, i lose about 50% of the profit, it is using the mid-point of the spread..?? seems impossible to make decent coin even though i have been spot on several times…

  • C.C. Rider

    Cover while you can beartarts, 950 is looming. This is a bonafide beartrap.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Took off the Intel spread for and .81 profit paid .20 (I'll take it!) Google is smoking! If it pins @ 440 @ OPX that would be a 4.00 debit 16.00 profit (could it be????)

  • ropey

    Hmm i guess you have to leg out of the spread in parts to maximise the profit? -grrrr

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Do you mean BF's Ropey?

  • ropey

    anna how do you maximise the profit, i had a spread on AIG with full profit and sold it for what TOS told me was the mid and it gave me back 30% of the damn profit 🙁 – happened several times now……do you leg out in each leg separately?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    No not neccessarily, Ie: I have a Goog 420/440/460 BF July. If by Friday it is at 440 and I can't sell it, I will get exercised and take my maximum profit of 16.00. (my initial investment was 4.00)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    went long GS Aug140p@3.35

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We are going to the moon

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    I think we should also consider the possibility that the H&S neckline has not yet been violated at all.

    If we consider the neckline as 879 rather than 890 on a strictly horizontal neckline, then there has not yet been a daily close below it.

    On that basis we could still be building the right shoulder and that might well go on for another week. If we closed above 932 SPX that would negate the H&S on that scenario though.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    You are funny guy 🙂

  • Keirsten

    Qs up against TL resistance right here. A pop over and look out above…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    was it a Vertical or BF?

  • C.C. Rider

    You my bitch now? J/K!!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I hate to say it! But I agree with you Clapton man! 🙂

  • lester

    I am still 35% short; 65% cash. Watching to see if I should close my shorts and go long. I know the obvious answer is go long. But no decision until 10:15.

  • ropey

    it was a vertical, TOS said profit was X, i sold it as th mid-point and i got 30% of what it said, commissions are never included so i don't see where the huge discrepancy is – happened on several spreads now – i can only thing i have to sell each leg independently to maximise the profit, i don't get how you can get the profit it says in the accounts tab…

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    from the first 20min, i think we will fill the gap. my question is where it will go next, and is it tradable?

  • lester

    So are you saying if we clear 92.26 then we go higher?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    added to last night's ES longs this morning. I think this thing has some steam behind it

  • C.C. Rider

    This calls for THUNDERSTRUCK!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvoeeq-BH4w

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    long QID/SRS all in

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • nyxjf

    ouch. Just took a loss and sold everything.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    u were suppose to ask “Funny HOW?” 🙁

  • lester

    alpha, we are just above the channel for SPY. Do you think there is still a chance we turn around and head down?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    That sounds strange R? I put in my limit sell order on INTC for .81 and it filled for .81, I don't like to leg out most of the time. You can lose money on the spread to the 'THUGS' oh I mean MM''s

    I would call them and inquire, if you have a limit order, you should get that or better (in some case I actually have gotten more)

    Sorry I can't be more helpful on that one.

  • milingz

    Morning rats…still channel bound. Picked up Aug 90 Puts @ 20.8

    http://img382.imageshack.us/img382/3488/spychan

  • ropey

    sorry i'm being a donkey, the P/L since open was $0 for some reason i thought i had lost that, it's one thing they don't summarize final profits/losses per trade anywhere??? seems it's just grouped under per symbol?

    Anyway yes i made the right amount of cash so ok i didn't lose it phew 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Scaling out of mot shorts on any weakness, obviously will keep myself hedged, but as of now, I am trading what I see and not want I want.

    whhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa 🙁

    BTW if we get any jeeezzz we are going to get the short squeeze from HELL!

  • Keirsten

    Love it David. 😉

    Looks like a nice short squeeze for the MMs to unload some shares.

  • ropey

    yep see above, figured it out, just didn't click today ( need coffee ) …i was trying to look for the P/L on the closed trade to see final profit – it's buried away but grouped under symbol – cant see it per trade

  • Coldwarvet

    Beginning to sample some puts here… If this breaks materially above 925, will exit.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Lester How much more is it going to go up without correction? I would wait for at the very least a pull back before you bail. Then SIT ON YOUR HANDS!!!!!!!!

  • lester

    this sucks, still in my Puts, for now. I am gonna have to sell these for a loss (unless this POS turns soon). what are you into on the long side?

  • C.C. Rider

    925 IS NEXT ZONE OF RESISTANCE. Would see a melt up on short covering if breached. Throw all OPEX beliefs out the window, this will not be typical.

  • lester

    well I am not going to SOH if we are heading back over 930

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Sorry Lester, we bears just didn't stick with it! 🙁 I just sold my Intel spread, that was long so that's gone) long Goog, APA, K, CTIC
    and just dumped everything but a few VPS on SPY.

    This is going to get brutal, I think the bear case may be done till 950 now.

    whhhhaaaaa

  • Lordted

    Very close to closing S&P gap from last week

  • lester

    well I want to make money up or down, so I am gonna jump on long (not sure when) cuz I do not want to miss the ride.

  • milingz

    Got out of those at a loss…dont fight the trend, i suppose.

  • katzo7

    Anyone watching GDX. I f**king missed it again. WTF didn't set an email alert? It hit my low.
    @#@$$@%^% &@#$

    DO NOT BUY IT NOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    I think it will pull back to the 36.40 level for the EW4 down on smaller time frames. Then go in long. Setting an email alert now for 36.50.

    Also watch 10:05 am for start of a pull back. We have a gap today, might fill or not, probably not today though.

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    i certainly agree with u 914.5 is the key. from the tape in the first half hour, i think it is an effective break out with good volume pattern.
    risk reward wise, i dare not short here.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Do you have Zero?

  • anotherone

    Well, I just closed my Aug SPY Puts, so I'm calling a top right here.

  • ropey

    nods i'm not sure we go much higher but prepared to be proven wrong

  • Keirsten

    Gap resistance on DIA @ 85.22

  • lester

    No, but I have evil.rat. I tried zero but I could not interpret the signal properly

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    First negative tick of the day- LOL

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Why do you think we are going back over 930 and by how much?

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    i am making wild guess here. from now on, everyday we are going to have doji. (what? lol)
    every big er is going to impact the market by opening gap only. lol

  • Lordted

    I'm trying shorts myself right here YM

  • EDC

    first negative ticks on the day… 40 min into trading… takeaway what you will.
    it really means nothing.

  • Fujisan

    OPX Wed is typically the most bullish day and it should turn around tomorrow. My OPX target is still 900.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Lester we'll see, right now this unfortunately looks wave 3ish to me. I'm not doing anything but watching. we've filled the gap on the SPX, so maybe we get a turn down. If those of us who are short are wrong, then we need to decide when to correct our mistake. If this is wave 1 up then it may be best to wait for wave 2 correction at this point. but for the time being I'm watching. the dow must close below 8408, spx 812.5 for the bearish case

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Heheheh I closed all but 5 of my spy put spreads, and closed POT (they are going to pin that one @ 90 I think by OPX)

  • lester

    I am not sure we are at all, but there is a hell of a lot of bullishness out there today on this site. I am still in my Puts and watching. If we break 92.4 for 15 minutes I close Puts and go long.

  • EDC

    you beat me to the post! lol

    +1

  • Osso

    We have 2 LS in SPX 931 and 925……and one RS at 932.
    We could be making the 2nd RS at 924/25…..

  • lester

    funny thing is I could go in all short right now and ride SPY down to 91. The paper would still say that it was an up day and your statement would be true.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    oh ok, don't go short here today, Like many are, on any weakness get out of shorts would be my suggestion Lester, but don't panic out. with anything around 140 or less on /YM may be our only weakness IMHO

  • http://nummyfx.blogspot.com nummy

    mole that wave 3 you mentioned a couple of posts ago hitting the 161.8% fib line is now hitting the 261.8% fib line (spx 921.4)

  • lester

    this is a bizzare case where SPY 5 min MACD has gone red but market is still moving up. This divergence could lead to a trun down but not sure. Comments?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Where is Anthem?? Looks like Google will pin to 440??? that would be awesome!

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Good news! Your 401-k will be ship-shape in two shakes of a lambs tail…..

    http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/artic

    PHEW….that's a relief!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    and as always during the time of great distress and panic none even wondering where our fearless leader is – I bet he's got no power

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Gee why does CNBC have on this guy in underarmour, I can't concentrate! ;-P

  • standard_and_poor

    5% short. Will exit remaining shorts on any pullbacks.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    spx rising vix rising

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    where have you been sweetie??? Glad to see you! IMHO smart move 🙂

  • katzo7

    IMO do not use 5 minute to trade off of UNLESS you are a good day trader. Watch the 15 minute lester.
    And I do not see the MACD going red? Do not know what you are talking about. Post a chart? Are you looking at the histogram?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I think he's shell shocked! 😉

  • Lordted

    Sound logical.. I'm out of short. I would only test it

    I think we left a key low back at 870… We are now out of the down chanel from the 11th June high

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    We may get another short squeeze to the upside, yes even from here!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    because its a circus act

  • katzo7

    Fujisan,
    In my 15 minute SPX I see the oscillator on the EW5 peak now above the EW3 oscillater level, not good for any on the short side. This means IMO that we will get a recount on the EWs on the 15 minute at some point in the near future, pushing this EW5 point even higher.

    Post script-IT JUST RECOUNTED, now EW3 have moved to the EW5 position and there is no EW5 at this point. It is all EW3.

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    That would be great! 450 even better, I've got a 420/ 450 spread put on a while ago.

  • lester

    White line and red line are both heading down and the white has crossed
    the red heading down. This is on TOS.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    LOL 🙂

  • lester

    sold my Aug Puts. Still got Sept SPY Puts.

  • NoFate

    What a sad little piece of journalism …

    Premise of the article: Your 401k is OK because:
    1) It is doing better than the market which is down >40% from the peak.
    2) You have been adding more cash!

    This is kind of like the old joke …what is the quickest way to make a million dollars? Start with 2 million…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Nice 81er!!! (btw did your kitty ever come home???)
    I am thinking it will pin @ 440 or 450, either way Thursday (evening)we will have a good idea 🙂

    I am in 420/440/460 July call BF

  • Fujisan

    SPX broke the downside channel that they have been sitting for the past 7 weeks. It will come back to retest the trendline, which is about 908 area.

  • Squidman

    Look who's talking, sheesh! Trend up day, pullbacks should be shallow.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    scaling out of FSLR jul calls

  • katzo7

    I agree, at some point there is today's gap to fill. But will it be after
    OPEX, on Monday? You said the Monday OPEX is usually tumultuous.

  • rhae

    Sold my BGU @ 34 could get to 34.27 but starting to look struggly. I just hate giving anything back… not bad 14% a few days… Earning season, OP EXP… I have no guts…

  • katzo7

    Agree, it is starting now on the 5 min. but watch 15 min. for confirmation, otherwise a head fake!

  • Keirsten

    Out of long scalps cuz I can't babysit them today. VIX sitting my target at bottom of bullish wedge on weekly painted a hammer and now a working on a doji on the 60 min. Funny when they use a gap to fill a gap. Something to think about pattern-wise and I need to look long and hard at island bottom formations for clarification about it. Can definitely include several days of trading in the pattern, but not sure about the cup shape that formed it (if it's an island bottom at all).

    For some reason I turned on CNBC this morning and left it running in the background… if I have to hear about that f-ing Haine's bottom one more time I'm going to throw the telly out my 2nd floor window. LOL Have a good rest of the morning Rats, BBL.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    ROTFLMAO HAHAHAHAH MOOOOOO! what a ugly bottom it must be too girl!

    Plus 1 hahahah still laughing

  • standard_and_poor

    Hi sweetness.

    ________________________________

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    To call that a piece of journalism is a real stretch. It's definitely a piece of crap though….lol

  • Blind_Squirrel

    U never know, he could be going to the gym to work off the
    baby phat too and just not flirting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Blind_Squirrel

    See how it feels!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!