Thank You Jing

UPDATE 9:50am EDT: Unfortunately Jing is a dog on Mac OS X – it uses over a Gig of RAM and is generally slow as molasses. This morning it saved my ass however as I was just about to post a chart about the Cubes touching the diagonal for a retest when it crashed. Took like 5 minutes to reload (ridiculous) but by then the Cubes had moved way past that retest line:

Now we are comfortably above that trend line and I suspect that we might complete Minor 5 of (C) here on the SPX:

We are past the 78.6% fib line, which is not a violation of any kind IF we are in a 2nd wave down. But we could pop a bit higher here and complete a fifth wave. So, you’ll have to decide for yourself if you’re going to start loading up here or if you wait. I’m thinking of grabbing some of those spreads Fujisan proposed yesterday – perhaps she can post some updated plays? There seems to be a lot more o.i. on the put side today.

UPDATE 10:12am EDT: Boy, that was a quick sell off – looks like program trading du jour. I was so busy posting this I didn’t have a chance to get a fill – I’m pretty miffed.

UPDATE 10:25am EDT: Well, the GS boys are done for today – they just pocketed 30 points on the NQ and are ready to head for the Hamptons for the weekend. Meanwhile I myself will have to deal with the ‘curse of the manic blogger’ in that I didn’t get my fill around today’s peak as I was busy putting this post together. &%@#*&!

UPDATE 10:34am EDT: Okay, this is what I’m thinking for my Cubes spreads:

Maybe Fujisan or Annamall would care to chime in but I think the odds are pretty descent on this one. Plus o.i. has significantly increased since Monday.

UPDATE 11:05am EDT: Let’s talk trading psychology for a moment. One of the toughest lessons learned for me was that of ‘letting go’. Today is a good example – I was writing a post and didn’t get the fill I wanted as I obviously didn’t expect the tape to turn on a dime as it did. Then I had to watch the Cubes drop a point per minute for half an hour – which is obviously tough.

So, you just missed out on a great move – and deep inside you want to ‘do something’ – because you’re pissed and just sitting there and steaming is driving you crazy. Trust me this is exactly when you should be doing nothing – better yet – go outside and run around the block for a few minutes. That moment in time is gone – just forget about it. Nothing you do will get you ‘back in’ – you can’t chase the tape obviously – and expecting (or rather hoping) for another move in the opposite or same direction is what usually gets you into trouble. Market makers know this of course and are happy to collect your desperate bids after a large swing – and then of course drive the tape in the opposite direction. And then, on top of missing an opportunity, you even forced yourself into a bad trade (and probably knew it when you did).

Let the market come to you and simply accept the fact that when you snooze you lose. Simple as that.

UPDATE 11:15am EDT: Fujisan seems to have some technical problems on her end. She emailed me to tell me that she likes the 35/33 spread better as it’s more ITM ahead of OPEX week. I’ll have to yield to the master of naughty spreads on this one.

UPDATE 11:20am EDT: ES future back at VWAP now (918) – NQ still below. Let’s see what happens next – participation looks very weak after the initial spike this morning. Just FYI.