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The Bus Is Empty
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The Bus Is Empty

by The MoleJanuary 14, 2015

Remember the old adage I have been drilling into your rodent skulls on numerous occasions: The bus moves fastest when it’s empty. And judging by the complete lack of participation in the comment section (at this crucial stage) I must conclude that the bus must be running pretty empty as we’re quickly descending lower. And that means things could easily accelerate as a ton of retail rats are waiting for a bounce that may not materialize.

2015-01-14_spoos_volume_profile

Now for the past few weeks I have not missed one opportunity to emphasize the fact that we may be in the late throws of the current bull market and that I was expecting quite some fireworks for 2015. Didn’t expect them so quickly to be honest but here we are. Is this where equities finally fall off the plate for the first time in years? Nobody can now for sure, but as long as our crystal ball is still in the shop the best we can do is to get positioned at crucial inflection points. Which means showing up for work when things look boring – not after the fact when the big moves are well behind us.

Alright, enough bitching. See above the E-Mini volume profile chart. We are again seeing lower lows and lower highs and as long as that situation continues the odds support continuation toward about 1920. Things get extremely serious after 1965ish, which would be the final death knell for the bulls this winter.

2015-01-14_spoos_update

As you can see the 100-day SMA and the NLSL at 1995.75 is currently behind us. Should we close the session below it then we’ve got a daily sell signal in the bag and obviously that’s very bad medicine for the bulls. Actually it would be great news for my NQ short position courtesy of Thor but let’s not count our chicken until they’re hatched.

2015-01-14_silver_setup

Silver is the only new setup I would touch today. It’s currently bumping against the 100-day SMA and there’s also a weekly NLBL at 17.08 (with the 25-week SMA right above it). I think a breach of today’s highs would be golden, if you forgive me the pun. Due to today’s long candle range I would put my stop near 16.75.

That’s all for today – I hope to see a bit more participation here otherwise I’m afraid you guys are destined to miss out on some mighty coin this winter. Which would be a shame, n’est-ce-pas?

UPDATE Closing Bell: 

2015-01-14_bear_trap

The rather forceful bounce near the lows has the words ‘possible bear trap’ written all over it. That move looked rather engineered and must have drawn in a hell of a lot of eager bears. I think the bearish case now slides to a 50% possibility (earlier today closer to 80%) and it’ll be a mere 30% if ES 2020 is retaken.

2015-01-14_zero

Here’s the Zero – some of you apparently played that divergence on the Zero Lite today – well done. As you can see that spike higher came literally out of nowhere which is why I attribute it to the usual suspects (i.e. institutional prop desks having a bit too much fun here). Could turn into a double bottom type of situation – again the bears need to hold 2020 and a drop before 2010 would be best.

Quickly shifting dynamics here – not for the faint of heart. Be nimble and don’t get drawn into emotional decisions. Unfortunately the NQ campaign is not at 1.2R yet which means that the ISL is still in place. Let’s see what the overnight tape brings.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

flying_bus


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    as I told Bobby a week ago ..He’s dead Jim
    [BPSPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39557289802

    The ema112 is holding, when it let’s go, nobody knows – if they say they know, run the other way.
    [SPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=15&id=p85365177084

  • BobbyLow

    Hey GG good to see ya.

    I missed the equity bus because I’ve found ways to travel that don’t cut my balls off. As crazy and dynamic that they are, Forex and Energy give me a safer and much more comfortable ride. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    late to cover shorts were just whacked…

  • Skynard

    VWAP saved and off to the races.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    OpX Turnaround TuesdaY?
    *I’m shocked, SHOCKED*

  • Skynard

    Yes, me too Gerb:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    out with the Flu.
    speaking of energy, tell them to turn the heat back on.
    it’s colder than a w!tches t!t in this sector.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPENER&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73855364087

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are you freakin kidding me, your practically clairvoyant with the Zero in your hand.
    😉

  • BobbyLow

    DJUSEN just turned positive while Equity market still down.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I picked up some CVX two days ago at 4% yield.
    if the banks can match it, i’ll sell out.

  • ridingwaves

    widowmaker adding to her numbers in a big way today….ouch….GS call of $40 oil while placing markers the opposite way

  • BobbyLow

    GS always has our back. It’s too bad that they also have their hands on our shoulders at the same time.

    And speaking of lying bastards:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-14/jpmorgan-ceo-dimon-says-banks-under-assault-by-u-s-regulators.html

  • ridingwaves

    House passes bill to delay Volcker rule implementation

    Bankers own us…

    Gap fill to kill late to cover shorts? in next day or 2…

    http://s11.postimg.org/kqw6w03ub/NG_gap_fill_to_kill_late_shorts.jpg

  • Billabong

    I’m sorry to hear the news. I “hoped” the House had the backbone to strengthen banking oversight. This just reinforces the need to get out of Dodge…

    EDIT: And the training on this site will pay for it …. Vanuatu here I come!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – yeah, right… snort :-))

  • BobbyLow

    Backbone? All you have to do is follow the money and follow the lobbyists. The lobbyists run the show.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    DarthMole predicts volatility on CL this morning…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See update above.

  • Malcolm O’Mara

    Yes, I’m smiling. ..Bought my last 12 Jan at 3.56.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong – In that case it would be ‘welcome to Paradise Lost’ … tho still not an unpleasant place to be.

  • mugabe

    looks like were in the trading range from hell / heaven

  • Billabong

    I was close to you where you currently live many years ago when I pulled into the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. A grand place. A few days off to island hop and swim … beautiful water. Met a French industrialist there. He literally dropped out of society. He packed up his wife and two small children; setting sail to see the world. When I met him, he had been at sea for 8 years and had no plans to return home … home is where you find it.

  • Skynard

    Mole, is that an hourly chart and setup?

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Algo bot driven whipsaw

  • ridingwaves
  • Scott Phillips

    For those trading Thor these are the real world account statements since we started 6 months ago.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/x7r341p7yba07bh/U1381253_20140801_20150114.pdf?dl=0

  • Skynard

    Trying long /6C, IH&S

  • Skynard

    Nice move to the longs:)

  • Skynard

    /DX battle zone:)

  • kim

    pic

  • kim

    pic, damn copy paste work, but then pic is not seen?!

  • mugabe

    amazing moves on the swiss franc after currency peg removed

  • Bernie

    amazing moves everywhere… are your spreads wider than usual?

  • kim

    pretty sure they blow some trading accounts today

  • Darkthirty

    ! .

  • Careus

    eurusd was almost not existing…now getting ‘normal’ for this kind of situation..1 pip on IB

  • Careus

    possible some brokers went into trouble too

  • Darkthirty

    240 Pts YM in 8 minutes…nobody wants to play?

  • mugabe

    you’re right about the moves everywhere … i am observing, not trading. don’t trade forex.

  • Billabong

    Despite large moves to the downside in equities and commodities, I haven’t seen one news story on margin issues. The 22% down move in copper alone should have generated something over the last month…

  • Skynard

    Wow, some kind of top looks to be in here. Rats! man your battle stations:)

  • Bob the Horse

    They only make the news after they are done. I posted yesterday that the copper move was a result of a broker closing out client positions in Asia.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Back as a kid in Europe some ornery Swiss conductor kicked me out of the train for not having a sleep wagon pass. Since that day I can’t stand the Swiss and for good reason.

  • Darkthirty

    Nice

  • Skynard

    Took off /CL @50.10, will wait for better price to get long again.

  • Skynard

    USD data up, should be fun:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Gold surpassing last June low. Need follow through.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    PPI, CLAIMS – red. Priced in I suppose.

  • Billabong

    51.26 with a high of 51.73 … talk about volatility.

  • MK Ultra

    I got stopped out on that NZD.USD swing with over 7 pips of slippage!!!

    Edit: To answer your question, spreads went much wider than usual.

  • Skynard

    Ya, seen 5 waves and missed the last blow. will wait it out for a new entry now.

  • Skynard

    Back to long /CL @ 49.92 (support)

  • MK Ultra

    Quite a move indeed………………

  • Skynard

    She is FN hot:)

  • MK Ultra

    So about 31R??

  • Ronebadger

    Hanging short with VIX still in the 20s

  • MK Ultra

    Oh….correction………..about 41R…………….

  • MK Ultra

    This volatility in crude is a good thing to see……………..

  • Skynard

    Screwed that up but it is not a mistake yet:)

  • Skynard

    Added down here, should see 50 mark soon:)

  • MK Ultra

    ………if 47.80 holds, will be good

  • MK Ultra

    Ooops………..there goes the 47.80 handle…………..

  • MK Ultra

    There’s a bearish imbalance below 47, that’s pending to be repaired………

  • MK Ultra

    come on, there’s nothing wrong with swiss people……………….

  • Ronebadger

    I like their cheese…

  • Darkthirty

    There’s a large swiss babe looking for you!

  • Skynard

    Hanging tight, my target was min 50, she will run again. Shaking weak hands:)

    Edit: Waiting for the dollar to dump out

  • MK Ultra

    I don’t doubt that…………

  • Skynard

    /NG shakeout looks complete. Let R ride Bitchez:)

  • Skynard

    /DX needs to break 92.5 again for a party

  • Bob the Horse

    What a day – reminds me of the fun of 2008 all over again. Fortunately there aren’t the same problems in the world today but the impact of the CHF is going to take a while to play out. Will be very hard to make money being short oil from here. It may well go lower but it is going to be much choppier from now on. More short squeezes, less one-way traffic in the dollar. There is a lot of credit stress now in the system, you don’t move 30% in a market that had an implied vol of under 3% without causing serious damage and the ripple effects are impossible to forecast. So the obvious bet is that crowded positions reverse as risk is scaled back. So equities lower and dollar lower. The dollar lower is what will make it hard for the oil shorts.