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The Most Exciting Markets Of 2019
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The Most Exciting Markets Of 2019

by The MoleMay 15, 2019

Well let me come right out with it – it’s most definitely not in equities. I’m not saying that there won’t be solid setup opportunities throughout the remainder of this year but while we are breaking our collective heads over the spasmodic gyrations emanating out of the equities market as of late the real fun is unfolding somewhere else. More about that further below – it’s not a post you’d want to miss.

But since y’all addicted to the daily drama let’s get that out of the way first. To me the formation on the daily still looks incomplete and I don’t really want to be long (or short) here just yet.

That said a breach of ES 2853.75 would warrant a few exploratory long contracts in anticipation of a face ripping ramp higher. And why is that exactly?

I’m glad you asked. Because the bots have been dominating the last two sessions (at least) and thus the scariest looking setup (to retail traders) will most likely be the one to take.

The SPX:VIX ratio is also starting to lead the SPX which isn’t a guaranteed shoe-in for the bulls but it shows that the perception of risk is starting to drop. By the way don’t come and tell me that the VIX is broken – if you do then you don’t know the stats.

As a matter of fact ~56% of the time the VIX moves along WITH the market. Meaning it drops while the market still drops as well. Food for thought and since you’re clever I’m sure you can figure out why this may be happening.

Mind Games

Thus far every single gap or stab higher has been met by concerted overnight selling pressure. Which of course pretty much anyone who got swiped in the process is fully aware of at this point. And that in turn is what we call mental conditioning Pavlov Deluxe style. As human beings we usually expect more of what lies just behind us

What’ll happen next, most likely this week or early next week, will be an overnight ramp higher that blows everyone’s socks off and relegates most participants to drooling from the sidelines. That said, HD is right in that another leg lower is possible. After all a HV market is a cruel mistress and can turn on a whim at any time.

The volume profile panel also leaves a bit more room for a dip lower. Frankly I would feel a lot better about long positions had we touched the 2800 mark.

Only problem is that IF we do then we probably overshoot – potentially into ES 2750. The good news then would be that a spike low represents a juicy entry opportunity. But to be honest I’m spending way too much time thinking about equities right now and I don’t like it.

Alright, so let’s get to the interesting stuff:

One of them is the ZB which we’ve been coveting for a while now but missed a good entry opportunity. After an early break out it’s now back near its recent spike high and any pull back from there is an entry opportunity.

More exciting charts waiting below the fold. If you’re not a sub yet then now is a good time:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • zzezzezz

    Long /ES @ 2826

  • Darkthirty

    I’m still short here… Got a target? Had 2826, now 2822….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    No target, but a stop at 2814

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yes, excellent concert last night. And they did play this song.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA4MomKEYFs

  • Darkthirty

    Prophet charts are sloppy, but that’s all I have streaming…. Any good providers out there?

  • evilasevildoes

    ZB and ten were a blast thx Mole

  • Dyellowflash

    Lighten up a bit at 2821, still slightly short. Waiting for zero and whatever is there in my head to find a long reversal if there is one. I am going to remain in shorts as long as there is no strong green candles on the hourly Chart for now. That’s a good 30 pts from my fills on the premarket movement

  • Darkthirty

    out, should be a ramp before the open

  • HD

    nice trade!

  • Darkthirty

    Out again…

  • HD

    GM all 16+ gap down -The fractals keep producing. No gap below 2800 though… wishful thinking. Whipsaw wednesday. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/43ca865d82677041810bd2ee7da074efeec443387834e3884b5ac47969dafd56.png

  • Darkthirty

    Scalp heaven!

  • zzezzezz

    nice!

  • zzezzezz

    nice trade. i’m still long @ 2826 (stop is still set at 2814)

  • Darkthirty

    were still in the channel, got a 2825 target bypassed a bit…..

  • HD

    Might be time to start talking about SI again. $17?

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 27.45….

  • Darkthirty

    Got a bot brawl going on……..

  • BKXtoZERO

    stopped out…. 27.15 funky spike

  • BKXtoZERO

    Must be w TWEET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • ridingwaves

    u jinxed it…

  • BKXtoZERO

    right on the edge of falling off the plate. Dang!

  • Sp00nman

    Interesting very long term chart on gold, and the gold/silver ratio. gld/silver ratio could have a little farther to run, although definitely getting rich. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d9c054d2980a407fd01a970d4207640dde36ad919f5751f3150d3a9d0c6d3ada.png

  • zzezzezz

    Moving stop up

  • ridingwaves

    momo and other indicators are still bearish….spike was off home builder optimism….good luck with that…pricing will fix that market

  • Dyellowflash

    spike was on trump delaying car tariffs?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes and Mnuchin saying still in talks with China

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    WH says may delay car tarriffs

  • BKXtoZERO

    That is why I usually sleep longer

  • Mark Shinnick

    Been sticking to longside labu, vol crush still threatening.

  • Dyellowflash

    Trying a short here at 25525 on the Dow, SL 25560. Testing the water.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Thought the fed bought more brawndo stock….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    whipsaw Wednesday. one hour into Market.
    a little chart for those mobile users. (not chained to a desk)
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d7c033d84b2a1261898928b631720cab8d4c58cd4a34a4a1b6c7ff901cd94ac7.png

  • Sp00nman

    Bulls showing resolve here. The playcall for volatility today:
    https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/69306587/sweep-the-leg-no-mercy.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    These Kneejerk Moves are unreal. Got stopped on my short for a loss on that spike but had a double order at my stop level at 2836.50 to flip to long just in case this shit happened and it did. We’ll see if this move has any legs or if it’s another tease.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’d thought you would post today?

  • HD

    say it with me- whipsaw Wednesday. OPEX rules running primo this week.

  • BobbyLow

    Nope. I’m scheduled for a day next week.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    seems like the “inner circle” are probably playing the markets!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    And Kim Kardashians ass got bigger

  • zzezzezz

    looks like you work where i work 🙂

  • zzezzezz

    Moving stop up

  • HD

    market mover!

  • ridingwaves

    a classic nothingburger news spike….heck yesterday it looked like it was all about china talk progress, today zilch, nothing new…..but will stick save it….
    me thinks the next 2 days are going to wild….

  • HD

    China calls his bluff. Lots of supply to unwind. To the sidelines for me.

  • Darkthirty

    short signal…..FWIW

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    they call that a circle j…uh…nevermind.

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah it’s all Bull Shit. Unfortunately that move took out a lot of stops including mine and I can’t day trade without having a stop in place because there’s always the chance of a runaway train move. But it is what it is and it’s all part of the game.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Stampede Tweets. Tis the season.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    hmm, really? i’m still long from 2826

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Kinetick is decent for the price. Or get TradeStation which comes with free data feeds.

  • Darkthirty

    That was at 9:55 2847.25 ES

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Captain Renault: “I’m shocked, shocked to find there is gambling in this establishment.”

    Assistant: “Your winnings, sir.”

    Captain Renault: “Oh, thank you very much.”

  • Darkthirty

    Thanks, I’ll check em out..

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Darkthirty

    2862 my 1st target

  • HD

    Is RTN a buy again?
    Iran getting the art of the deal next?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Not in my book…for time being.

  • Darkthirty

    How many year chart is that?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Saber rattling is one thing but if Trump signs off on a war with Iran he can kiss 2020 goodbye.

  • zzezzezz

    Sold at 2852
    Banked +26 handles.
    100% cash

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    huh? that’s a 2 day, plus today chart.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    whoa whoa. easy on the Geopolitics captain. you need some rest.

  • Darkthirty

    Nice! Cash is where its at today………

  • Dyellowflash

    The zero hrly had nothing on this up move and the 5m made a reverse positive divergence. I wont short yet, but keeping my eyes open.

  • Dyellowflash

    Currently Dow 25640.

  • ridingwaves
  • ridingwaves

    nice scalp

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I suddenly have a desire for….caramel.
    😉

  • Dyellowflash

    Now 25680. Still nothing.

  • zzezzezz

    Short /ES @ 2855.50

  • Dyellowflash

    I got no cue to short yet. Dow now 25690.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    25,746

  • Dyellowflash

    my high of day on my chart is 25694. Do u mean 25746 is a possible price to take a short?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    I’m with you on this one

  • Darkthirty

    DOW and ES are not synched today, too many fingers in the pie…….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The same fucking game every single day. Very much looking forward to a week off.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks like you’re all set!

  • ridingwaves
  • Mark Shinnick

    More and more, its competing with bots.

  • HD

    Technically this is different HL and HH

  • zzezzezz

    Come on VWAP! Let’s do this!

  • zzezzezz

    thank you!

  • Dyellowflash

    I can feel the wind now. Dow 25665

  • Darkthirty

    And down goes Frasier……..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Have A Great Vacation Chief ! It will be in good hands with BL at the helm !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Watching for any block trade buys in AVXL, nearing breakout..have big position already..but willing to scalp on volume break out for costa rica enjoyment money…

  • ridingwaves

    shhhh….weez hunting rabbits….damn this symbol is printing cash….

    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/under_the_knife/#comment-4439009327

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 25.17, no more “tweet squeezes” pleeeze.

  • ridingwaves

    very happy you didn’t have an I in there instead of wee
    life would somewhat suck….

  • Darkthirty

    So, is the game changed at 1400 hours?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ooot of NUGT +0.90, not liking the action of Gold at 1300 area

  • Darkthirty

    Ever get the feeling that traders aren’t welcome?

  • Darkthirty

    Shoulda called em queefs

  • zzezzezz

    Got a pretty strong positive signal on the Zero during this last spike up to 2855…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    The undraft into resell resistance is having its problems….maybe a fast blast yet to go.

  • Dyellowflash

    could be a feint move. use the 1m mole arrow, take a short, then set a tight stop.

  • ridingwaves

    the 100sma crossed long term cycle line for symbol, now all sma’s are above it…getting more bullish chart wise by the day….the one thing about this symbol, if out of the blue FDA fast tracks alzheimers, Rett or Parkisons trials, it will fly to $15-20 and if approved would fetch $150-200PPS

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY volume declining on this bounce this a.m
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    added other half 24.83

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    back from a boring office meeting.

    sneaky DOW, do you see it? $20 Zerohedge is posting it. LOL.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/70ca00b5d40fe275264384dade8c399d0de7baa639021ae4f0ee6f182cb59d74.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    out of half 24.6, holding other half but not looking good. ding!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {face palm}

  • HD

    Very high odds of that wave’s low in

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not rich today GG

  • zzezzezz

    Hmm, I don’t like the last 30 mins of action. Feels like bots.

  • BKXtoZERO

    NQ gap 7605 looks like a magnet at least

  • ridingwaves

    BKX snatcher?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    financials somewhat not believing this rally….

  • Darkthirty

    Flitter and queefs… what’s wrong there?

  • HD

    I think we gotta be a seller at TL, one last time. Shouldn’t have to wait long if wrong.

  • Darkthirty

    Sure is fluttering around. DOW up ES down Nothing in synch. I gotta pullout, dentist appt

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    something like that.
    gold is a wild animal, not as bad as natty, but wild nevertheless.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b7258ee1e70c2c38e0b9be6d7e73cd8b5d75967f7005004ff9cc96052a2de63f.png

  • Darkthirty

    PPT on pumps up, Must be a lot of selling going on………

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yep. make the plan, execute the plan. take out the emotion.
    “if it didn’t work, that’s ok, maybe next time”.
    If you can’t embrace that, you can never make as a trader. IMHO.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD SPX Corrective ABC up from Monday nearly complete
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    have you noticed the bpspx?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    so what’s the deal? which one is correct?!
    bpspx? or $spx?

  • BobbyLow

    Price is always right because it is what it is no matter the cause.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you’re sounding like Captain. good thing, don’t you have a post to rehearse?
    😉

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    in reply to Julie,

    well – okay.
    everyone has to trade their own book, rules & lenses.
    the divergence is a *little* unnerving.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d5364935515940d309ec9dc8179eceac36d0032ddcc27ff2d7dec6a3eae6bb1c.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    In reply to GG … If anyone thinks that SPY up volume today instills https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e9cde1b40e556c9e5cd27a01958ba76cf7060b9a1bc3d3cb3db6a96fc26cd5f8.png a rip roaring RIP .. Well … ! JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can *barely* read the price candles.
    but volume, wow +3

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    given that it’s OpX week.
    I think it pertinent that we ask the commander when is ‘wheels up’?
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m still here tomorrow as well as Friday. Plus the 27th is Memorial Day weekend, which means most traders will take Friday off. So effectively I’m only gone a few trading days and there will be Bobby and Tony doing a few posts.

  • ridingwaves

    some juicy longer term auctions next week to boot on Thursday….

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yes – prob 90 % of trading by algos – nobody else can figure out what they want to do with Tweet man.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves
  • Mark Shinnick

    Natural Selection.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    come to think of it, better odds than some of my option trades.
    (I know, dark humor)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m going to start charging for that information.

  • ridingwaves

    especially when you can fly for dirt cheap if you know how to play web flight surfing

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, make dam sure you hire the rupee contractor to create the API with REST capabilities.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Adapt2030

  • BobbyLow

    Started out the day with a loss after this morning’s spike and finished up the day with a net gain +8 Points. This along with Oil being up a little turned it into a better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick day. 🙂

  • zzezzezz

    Moving stop to 2862

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Close up yer books.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Holding small tvix after 2 minor dings today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    may your daily RSI 50.7 give them hell tomorrow, sir!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX A corrective 3 waves up from Monday stalling at upper channel.; 61.8% retracement ; 60 min 55 ema and 60 min lower cloud boundary overbought 60 min chart. Checkout the negative volume pattern SPY Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0354df89506727979c99309c667ee5acb488f7caa0bf3453fd3a800a43f074c5.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    nice chart

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks catracho and you have a great rest of day !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys my $VIX

    Above 50 Extreme levels of fear and signs of capitulation
    35 – 50 higher levels of fear and recognition phase
    Above 16 fear creeping into the market ; below 35 fear leaving the market
    Below 16 bullish but complacent
    Below 12 dangerous for bulls
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ronebadger … What ! .. You mean you’re not a Pro ! LOL! Have a great time !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Be afraid – be very afraid.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Careful Chief $VIX inverted to correlate with SPX Must get above it’s 10 ema and the 20 sma 10%
    or greater above and below it;s 10 ema corresponding with upper and lower bollinger bands IMO best signal https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/993d0dc052d64025805677b21e566396f779af2630124a57093e7e13cd7287af.png JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I was looking at the 2950 high on 5th of may as beginning of 3. IF the 2860 double top holds, that is exactly 382 of 3, considering the end of 3 at 2802. With the 786 retrace of 1, the rules of alternation say 382 is an ideal 4th. Still not sure whether or not this merely a correction on the weekly charts. The crap prophet charts don’t read well and the data is skewed by bots / PPT games….

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Have a wonderful BLAST, you deserve it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX Any oversold bounce here IMO going to be a “Dead Cat” esp with the 5 – 21 and 55 ema’s down trending and 5 crossing below the 55 with MACD going below it’s center line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f8d60cd7a3240f635ab83e8c5a89b04d53e74ff3774b89b17c72ee6204282dc.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    forget the pros, I wanna see the beer cart ladies!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG SPX bounce is a dead puss cat !
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Just bought 1/2 position of LABU in A/H.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BL We are all for ya being our Chief while the cat is away We mice will play ! LOL! BL This is my kind of “lady” JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f8279a6ad453a91199a84b579976bbe2c32d946bc930e34f69f736fa9698a51.png

  • zzezzezz

    /ES heading to 2840 in the near term
    (yes, I found a crystal ball)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ZZ SPX Cash heading to 2650 intermediate term
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Oh yeah! What Julie said! Forget 2840

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    Actually it’s domesticated and wearing a shock collar. When it’s master shocks it, it lays down like it has for years……….

  • zzezzezz

    Aaaaaalmost there!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    those things never work.

    OTOH, the Horns of Baphomet seems to do the trick.
    😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03046a0d2f8cfbd02d5190545a66eed85cf5eea4e98c909adb6f7f6c598f3d79.png

  • zzezzezz

    Moving stop to 2852

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG They must be recalculated every day . The most accurate is Thursday just before close
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Stopped out.
    +3.5 handles
    100% cash

  • zzezzezz

    Oh well…

  • zzezzezz

    2840.5 pretty close…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Any stats on Max Pain? Lazy of me to just ask but it’s one of MANY MKT bits of information that people try to trade from and I always wondered if this particular tea leave was worth anything. My feeling is that when markets are under control these play out, and I guess big corrections they lose control of these games for a while.

  • BKXtoZERO

    More rare than a Fish Head Pattern… wow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK More accurate with individual stocks as stocks are not manipulated as much as the indices. Again Max Pain is recalculated every day leading up to expiration
    JULIE

  • Dyellowflash

    How are dudes who shorted last night by the mid-session? I fell asleep after putting in my final shorts after the 5m mole arrows. It was already 2.30am when they showed up. I TP-ed 3 contracts this morning SG time 25610, then set a pending order to refill at 25670. The retrace seems to miss it by 10 points, so I had to enter a fast mkt fill at 25640 for 2 contracts.

    Overall, I still maintain a short bias. But it is a very intangible bias. Here are my play:
    1) My Short bias now is 57:43
    2) IF Dow gets above 25660, my short bias will drop to 53:47
    3) IF Dow gets above and sort of looking to hold above 25730. I will probably be on the long side.
    4) Any strong green 15m chart candle in the zone 25550-25590 if price gets down there will make me very alert for a reversal and turn long (if price gets there… currently at 25610). If it makes a couple of small 15m red candles which look like they are not holding up against green candles, I will TP shorts and stay neutral.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    stuck in LA traffic. congestion zone.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ea030499f7fe9e396770d2c18e250e1dc05ac2f5f6fa8d16ba6046080e05b34.png
    anything above the median? well, you know.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was out overnight… took a small ding today and left a little on.

  • BKXtoZERO

    mostly look at absolute levels on ES

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I remember doing that commute – one hour each way going from the Hollywood Hills to Santa Monica and the reverse.