The Shorts Got The Shaft

Some brutal candles on the E-Mini in the past two hours and I hope you didn’t get caught with your pants down. As you recall the warning signs were on the horizon yesterday which is why I got out of my short positions once we breached that 25-hour SMA this morning. I have been banking some fine coin on the way down and frankly don’t really care about a few more candles down here:

It’s been a long ride and the odds of a meaningful bounce are now outweighing any downside profit potential. Although it’s quite possible that we fail the hourly NLBL and drop even lower on Monday I’m now more interested in finding a good spot to get positioned to the upside. But let’s not rush things – the fat lady may not have sung yet and thus patience is key. A breach of that NLBL today would be a good start – a push above the 100-hour SMA on Sunday or Monday even better. Either way – when it happens the Mole will be there to report it 😉

As suggested to my subs I flipped my natgas short for a long position this morning after we breached that NLBL. I am very much liking this setup as the daily now sports nice support. So I’ll hold this position into the weekend with a stop below the 100-hour (which is conveniently rising).

CAD/JPY – finally we got the breach we were waiting for. I am now long with a stop below the 25-hour SMA. This thing has been coiling up for months and we could be seeing a nice move here. So if you haven’t yet here’s another reason for you to sign up for my Google+ alerts – the early morning pickings have been most delectable lately!

A few more goodies below – please step into my lair:
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Now I know cotton is probably not on your radar but the setup I’m seeing here could spin a long way (hey, come up with a better analogy!). I love that diagonal support at the 25-hour SMA and want to be long on a breach of the 100-day SMA.

Crude has been a bit wild lately – I know. But that’s often floors are being produced. I think a push above 87.5 may lead us higher – I’d give it a shot with a handful of contracts and build up my position if it swings the right way.

GBP/USD is a bit of a headache on the hourly right now but that often is a good thing, assuming it can overcome all those hurdles. I want to be long here if we make it above about 1.59.

GOOG – this one is very speculative, so I’ll allow myself a few lottery tickets IF (and only if) the 25-hour is being breached. I’d say we have a 50/50 chance here, so don’t get too excited. This is a low probability high profit potential type of setups – a.k.a. a lottery tickets.

We had another smashing week and you know what’s on Mole’s agenda now:

Aaah – simple pleasures…. Wishing you all a great weekend!

Cheers,