Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
The Wall Still Stands!
69

The Wall Still Stands!

by The MoleMarch 5, 2019

The wall at ES 2820 continues to prove impenetrable as the fifth attempt to overcome it yesterday morning failed ignominiously. What we got instead was a spectacular counter response that cleared out a boat load of weak hands who just recently had turned coats after final capitulation. I had hinted at a possible shake out in my MAMO update yesterday, but had no idea it would happen so quickly and violently.

Admittedly yesterday’s reversal is thwarted by the ones we saw back in late 2018. And there are a few other inconsistencies worth sharing:

UVOL:DVOL suggests that selling was sustained throughout the session but with dip buyers catching up late in the session.

What irks me a bit is the SPX:VIX, in that it simply followed the SPX lower and wasn’t leading it once. It has however been leading on the way up, which suggests that market makers were either caught by surprise or did not consider this leg down a reason for concern.

So just a bear trap then? Why they would not exploit the run lower however by jacking up IV and thus option premiums is a bit puzzling to me. If anyone can muster up a plausible explanation, I’d be all ears.

My SQN panel reveals that a turning point had been reached (first green arrow) after which equities fell off the plate. Selling exhaustion was reached rather quickly and then produced a counter response which once again gets us close to buying exhaustion – for now.

This is dangerous territory IMO as realized volatility (lowest panel) is once again nearing an expansion point. Which means we are going to see faster candles again, most likely during today’s session. As the current move looks incomplete another leg lower cannot be ruled out.

Another issue that is complicating matters is that we are approaching the big roll-over into the June contract. Given what just happened I expect quite a bit of volatility during the transition as nervous participants are considering whether or not to roll over or to close out here and remain in cash.

At the same time FOMO is probably at all time highs given that we are pinned right below the big inflection point. So to say that this is going to be interesting would be a gross understatement.

By the way my crude campaign got stopped out on Friday – fortunately at break even. I feel a bit conflicted about this one as the current formation suggest a re-entry. However everything seems to be in flux right now and I decided to err on the side of caution.

Better wishing to be in a trade than wishing to be out of one.

Alright we have new entry candidates on the horizon, many of which show significant long term potential. Please meet me in the lair:

[am4show have=’p1;p13;p9;p12;p5;p10;p20;p29;p32′ guest_error=’login’]

In no particular order – 30-year bond futures: VERY nice retest of weekly support and in general I live for these types of setups. Plus the contract just rolled over and we have almost three months of clear skies ahead.

However the daily panel is kind of dangling here in the middle of nowhere. I would like to see a more pronounced floor pattern before risking even an exploratory position.

Copper looks like it wants to paint some type of island reversal. They usually continue lower and according to Bukowski’s pattern site have decent odds of resolving.

I mean I myself would be thinking long as well if it touches 2.85, so going against my instincts here could work out just fine. Let’s see if we get a drop to that and then we revisit.

Natgas – the widow maker! Doesn’t this formation on the hourly panel look delicious? Can you hear the song of the sirens waling in the distance?

Don’t fall for it! Cover your ears soldiers and tie yourself to the mast! For she is a cruel mistress and will devour you without compunction.

Also whenever NG starts to switch into low volatility mode I get very very suspicious. So I would love to see a fast drop here to 2.8, which IMNSHO would be a nice long entry opportunity.

[/am4show]


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • evilasevildoes

    hello thinking rbob april june higher aganst crude once crude tops

  • Darkthirty

    3/5 Mercury retro- 3/6 new moon

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    …just BTFD….

  • kim

    bye bye my eurusd long campaign…

  • nirav777
  • Ronebadger

    ….yet…

  • nirav777

    Slight uptick just now in participation bullish…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Chief ! Great Post !
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    are we going above 2793 today Julie?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BW SPX could as it appears to be a consolidation on the intraday charts. 2793 is my Ichi Cloud Also I have a level at 2795 which is why I posted 2793 yesterday afternoon as a ceiling on the bounce.2814 was an important level that I posted on previous threads
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Personally, I am sceptical that we’ll see any meaningful resolution before the job report on Friday. I am expecting whipsaw until then.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TVIX from 29.5 yesterday at 29.5

  • Jason13

    Full positions on Palladium short and Wheat long.
    2/3 rds on Platinum long reload.
    Love Mole’s plan for Bonds and Nat gas but I’m always hesitant on the widow maker.
    S&P I’m avoiding til more clarity. Haven’t played it in a month. It smells like shit.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX having trouble at it’s 233 ema. A bearish close below it’s 21 ema will also break below a minor support JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/67f067672c6c4415ff4cc0b98f338b0a787cd0ddd542d0ac4a577cc507879f23.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    back in TVIX, ES crossed low of higher high at 2791.75, almost same entry TVIX 29.55

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TLT could bounce here 38.2% retracement closely matching a support zone and lower channel oversold.JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3d94a818b8705cf6706f4b557bad53eb9bc5fc40e7b306ddd7cf2b5b8e44a81.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys IMO seems reasonable a pullback to approx 2700 – 2708 ? A pullback to this level on light selling volume and small candles (light momentum) would be healthy IMO.It would work off the overbought condition BUT NO CIGAR so far.JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Strange tape today – how’s my crew?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yikes…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good stuff.

  • BKXtoZERO

    strange chop indeed. Living it, not loving it………….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Doing Great Chief Just monitoring Holding a small short position SPX (SH)
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So I bought myself the Zhiyun Smooth 4 gimbal.

    https://images.digitalcamerawarehouse.com.au/fcjtay/productimages/17156_0.jpg?etag=%22f9a25d5172e8901218a6876a00d71f33%22

    So awesome and in combination with Filmic Pro I am able to shoot some very impressive footage. Filmic Pro in log mode even on a cheapo Android phone is very powerful.

    Ordered a portable LED light and a better mic – plan to use it when I’m on the road.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Make chop suey!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief IMO The bulls are not so smart letting a healthy light selling volume light momentum pullback not to occur
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup – I would agree. A sideways session after a big move is to be expected but NOT after a snapback like this and this much RV. This raises the odds of another leg lower, as I suggested in my post.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup Exactly Chief … Love it when we are on the same page approx 99.999% of the time !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    10% more on avxl, took 1/2 off

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice trade RW
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys USO a small pennant developing ? RSI above 50 21 ema has crossed above 55 ema and both uptrending STOCHS turning up above 50. Holding an important support level JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BKXtoZERO

    The market is making this thing look more and more exciting

  • ridingwaves

    Thanks cougar girl

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Watching very important $TNX at it’s 55 ema overbought and a centerline MACD test. If a breakout above 55 ema then 89 ema matching a strong resistance.JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f8a00409542dcfdb5eab228b9ec588afdcfeff69d607590e360e7c4950cc18a.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT A breakout above it’s 55 ema then 89 ema matching a very strong resistance
    JULIE

  • HD

    Left hand brewing makes a fine Pilsner. Polestar. Very crisp and refreshing.

    My contribution today. Your welcome.

  • Sp00nman

    You made me watch a tutorial on the filmic pro website, and that all seems like a steal for the cost. Very impressive. It sure beats the typical shaky hand held footage for video I have. 😀

  • Sp00nman

    Lots of wang holding today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    Would be nice to see the rest of the indices match RTY/IWM in terms of today’s pattern…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…the longer it goes the more misnomer it gets. Friggin insane. Eminence Front
    https://youtu.be/APgC6XYcmSY?t=22

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    as a QE road kill survivor,
    never say never.

    and for chart of the day
    (I knew someone pulled out the Global credit card!)

    https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-01_11-49-06.jpg?itok=p3WH74Ui

  • Mark Shinnick
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    clever.

    Just don’t tell my girls. I enjoy their company
    https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/raunchy-tv-and-movies-ted.jpg?w=1000

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It really works amazingly well. Had to buy a special clamp though for the mic and the light. Not a big deal but it’ll add a bit of weight.

    Crazy the type of technology you can get for a song these days. A steadycam cost hundreds of $$$ back in the days and it was super heavy.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I bought one signed by the author

  • Sp00nman

    Good to know. I have considered getting some kind of gimbal because it probably has the single largest effect for producing decent watchable video, but I also don’t shoot much video. It’s amazing the level of professional video you can create without expensive rigs and special equipment these days

    Moore’s law is definitely an amazing thing. I step back and think about my pop’s old IBM 286 sometimes.. wow we’ve come a long way.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Cramer, what a clown.
    yeah, CVS is cheap. but it could be cheaper

    @#$@#$
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eadb37e95fb731e36dcfe6bfa59cce839003c1d31d8089236064207cae841259.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well YOU’re watching him! 😉

  • Jason13

    Long Aussie after GDP dump. Support at year open 70.54

  • Darkthirty

    Gartman needs a tv show! I’ll watch him like a hawk………

  • Darkthirty

    I load that when things are getting hinky….Keeps things in perspective

  • Darkthirty

    I hate ciphering, but IF this is a symmetrical correction, I.E. 2, B should turn at 2783 and run up to 2807. IF the whole ST pattern from 2817 is a correction, and currently in C symmetrical reversal would be 2753.50

  • Darkthirty

    Option spread sucks but, why not?

  • Darkthirty

    Looking for streaming charts similar to TDA or prophet. Their charts are skitchy….. Got any prospects?

  • Jason13
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    zzzzz…….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Jason13

    ‘Tis true

  • Jason13

    I’m sure a rising or non rising interest rate had something to do with it too…nothing in isolation

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s just the thing – we are not sure. But it’s a low frequency signal that we would have to backtest. I keep seeing all these antiquated ideas out there and NOBODY bloody tests their validity.

  • HD

    I still find value in it though. It’s worth “taking heed” or paying attention too. 4:7 is still good IMO

  • HD

    so far the “tariff man” and his “trade war” have netted the worst gap since 2008 and now a $100B increase? winning! yes a market mover

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NEW POST!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Really? How does that translate into your active trading? I understand where you are coming from but when exactly would one want to be short? And how many times would you have missed out on a massive squeeze higher?

  • HD

    combine that with the 2820 level SPX and you have something to take heed of. Not a signal to trade. Data to help the big picture maybe.