This Is Getting Too Easy!

So yesterday was that time of the month again. I’m not referring to Mrs. Evil, no – less painful – we got another whack at playing the 30-year bonds bounce game. At this point it’s become a favorite Evil Speculator past time – go long at support, set your stop, profit!

I swear, it’s like pushing a button, this. We were actually hoping to finally get stopped out so that we could take a technical short position, but thus far the big money trade keeps evading us. That’s fine – until we get the big one we’ll continue to nickel and dime ’em to death.

I’m really glad I suggested the 10-year as well though and if you caught this candle yesterday then I’d take a bow and cash out gracefully. That’s if you were a sub of course – if you were not then you want to point your browser toward ZeroEdge where you will have plenty of company whilst bitching about the ‘erratic’ and ‘unfair’ tape. We stainless steel rats prefer to bank coin and smile all the way to the bank. Anyway, I have no clue as to where this thing is going next as we are now near a descending diagonal resistance line.

Okay, so the ole’ convict got all smug about the inside day candle freebie he handed out to all you leeches yesterday. Well, I can do better than that old vegemite drilling dingo bumping dipstick! I give you …. (drum rolls) ….. the INSIDE INSIDE day candle!!!! (echo)

Caveat – we are currently trading awfully near yesterday’s low, which means we may just trigger Scott’s setup today. So if that happens take out a small position which you unfortunately will have to hold (and perhaps hedge via the spoos or the AUD/JPY) over the weekend.

If we remain within yesterday’s candle then Monday will be the day to play my setup and the Convict owes me a beer (or two). Of course if his setup triggers then he still owes me a beer – so how can I lose?

Quick update on the NYSE A/D ratio chart – it’s starting to look more bearish here. I was hoping for something more significant on the D/A panel but thus far we are only painting 2.0 signals – would like to see a 3.0 or 4.0 if possible. That would be a good indication that something more sinister was in the works. But I’m putting this out as a preliminary notice to everyone – no need to take action just yet but I am on the lookout for a bearish signature here similar to what we got in 2011 (please check out my recent Sunday posts).

Ole’ bucky is back from the grave and made it above both MAs against all odds. This is a wonderful example of why I do not just rely on one (short or long term) moving average. Quite often you will get faked out. In my not so humble experience a combo just like this (you can shift those values to whatever suits you) is a good way of separating between fake and real support/resistance breaches. And if you have been a sub over the past year or two then you know that the results speak for themselves.

Anyway, this is good for the Dollar and may be bad for equities. I would get a bit more excited if we cross the magic 80 mark, so let’s see what happens next week.

I like that formation on gold right now – we are currently locked between the 100-day SMA and a recently expired NLSL. I think I would be long on a breach of the NLSL or a touch/retest of the 100-day SMA. I would be short on a failure of that SMA – just to be clear.

Let’s wrap up the week with currencies. The Kiwi/Dollar has been on the move and if it touches that NLSL then I want to be long – until of course I get stopped out and we breach below that lower BB at 0.8234. A breach of that would want me to be short and smiling into 0.8.

The old lady is actually in a similar setup, which is very interesting – I always like it when I see similar formations on several currency pairs. One of them usually gives it away earlier, and that allows me to anticipate and better structure my trades.

Enjoy your weekend!

Cheers,