Thursday Morning Briefing Update

Some ex quant kid wrote me a few emails in the past few days – talking shop and all but also wondering how I’m handling being whipsawed out of ticks/pips around inflection points. The basic idea of what we do is here to get positioned around energy levels, and yes it’s true sometimes you get thrown out of your setup, you may be even have to flip it just to reverse again an hour later. What do to?

Nothing – getting whipsawed sometimes is the cost of admission but over the long term you will come out on top. That’s called having an edge, meaning that on average over time your big winners are going to outweigh the nasty choppers. Case in point – today, let’s review this morning’s short term setups:

Great entry on ole’ bucky this morning and we enjoyed a might bounce. And I’m out.

USD/CHF – same idea, you guys even got a retest of the Maginot line. Clean entry and I’m out now as we’re heading into ST resistance.

NZD/USD – total bust, I got stopped out and wasn’t fast enough to flip the sucker. It happens and I got out with a few pips of punishment.

I did flip the EUR/JPY but didn’t set my target before I grabbed some food. I’m still profitable, but I could have done better. Coulda would shoulda – I know.

EUR/CAD – fail.

EUR/USD – didn’t really like it when I put GWB at the gate. Instant reversal and I’m out already. Awesome trade.

I should use GWB’s pic more often – it works! Gold has been profitable but I’m about to pull this, too slow and the 25-hour is pulling up.

Cotton was a waste of time – pulled it. And there you have it – this is how we make the sausage down here in the evil lair. You can go back to over thinking it or you can just take the setups and bank coin. It’s all the same to me. If you have followed my work for more than two weeks then you know that I’m make similar calls consistently day after day, and week after week since 2008.

Cheers,