Tough Times…

Frustrations are rampant in the air here.  On both sides traders are getting more nervous and irritated.  As Mole stated earlier, these are typically the times when huge moves happen because EVERYONE is near the breaking point.  Once the move picks a direction, all the winners will be buying more while the sellers are unloading at any cost, effectively driving the markets further and harder in their move.

I know several people who have completely backed out of the markets right now.  Kind of hard not to, considering all the intervention.  Even if you are a bull, knowing the government is your “support” is hard to rely on.

That said, we remain in a pickle.  The markets are oversold on many timeframes from minutes to days depending on indicator, but we know that stocks can continue to be oversold.  We also know that some of the worst declines stem from drastically oversold conditions, especially when your president and presidential candidates are plastered ALL OVER public tv (no I don’t pay for cable).  Scare tactics produce drastic results, and we should keep that in mind for both the coming rally and subsequent decline.

It is time to step back and take a look at the bigger view in face of all this intervention.  Here is the $DJI on a 2 year chart showing my two new highest ranking wave counts.  The black count is me preference with the two divergences supporting its case that wave 1 of (3) bottomed last Thursday and the we likely face another sharp rally up.  The most likely targets are the range of 12100 to 11750.

The red count is the alternate right now in which 1-2s are continuing to unfold.  In this case there is a short term wave count where this could be applicable, but it doesn’t give me that “warm, fuzzy feeling.”  In its case the MACD and STO can be explained by saying the decline is still developing.  Until we push above 12250, I see no real need for a larger bullish count, so we maintain that the long term trend is, indeed, still down, despite what the politicians tell you.

People have noted the strength of the NQ here lately.  That strength is contained to the $NDX, rather than being spread out upon the broader $COMPQ.  The $COMPQ is looking pretty bearish, tracing out still-clean EW counts.  Pretty remarkable considering all the manipulation.  The alternate in this case would be $COMPQ hitting the high of an “A” wave on Friday and declining in a “B” wave right now.  This would likely lead to a strong rally in a “C” wave, looking for 2375.  That is quite a move, and it should show considerable strength early,  Look at the explosion in the MACD.  IF we get another strong leg up, the MACD should look quite similar to that.

I will leave you tonight with a simple website.  There is not much time, and it may do nothing in the end, but taking 5 minutes of your time to fill out the required information, IMO, can not hurt.  Pass it on to those you know and love.  Make sure your families know they will be footing around $10K per household to bail out people like Dick Fuld who made $0.5Billion on SELLING LEH stock THIS YEAR!!!  Some people need to learn.

I have a feeling it will be an “active” day.  Make sure you are well prepared for some strong action in one way or another.

votenobailout.org

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