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Tuesday Morning Briefing
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Tuesday Morning Briefing

by The MoleSeptember 10, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

No drama overnight despite the suspicious late session VIX divergence yesterday. In fact the Dow futures – weakest of the equities trifecta – has just crossed over into bullish territory (i.e. above the colliding 100-day and 25-day SMAs). So far so good.

Gold once again testing our patience but is now reaching an inflection point. As it’s been indecisive for the past few weeks it has reached a fork in the road and a decision will now be foisted upon participants. We are at the 25-day and the 100-day and as the former is rising it will have to either climb along or produce a failure. The 100-day is still falling and a drop below would be a sell signal. Long if it can hold its ground and remain above the 25-day SMA. On the hourly panel we also seeing it test the lower 100-hour Bollinger – the more reason for it to make a stand here. Let’s see what happens in the coming hours but I think this is a pretty good spot to get positioned.

Public Service Announcement:

All good things eventually come to an end and Sunday marked the final day of the CrazyIvan beta testing program. We’ve come a long way in the past two months and your input has been invaluable. CrazyIvan has become a better product thanks to all of you.

The votes are in and the four winners of our FX poll are: EUR/USD, AUDJPY, AUD/USD, and USD/JPY. Not a big surprise there except for the AUD/JPY wich made second place – and I thought I was the only one who liked it this much. As you already know we’ll also be adding the ZB futures as an additional symbol to both the CrazyIvan.30 and CrazyIvan.480 packages.

Special CrazyIvan Promo: If you sign up for either package by midnight EDT on Wednesday then I’ll add the other one for free. So if you sign up for CrazyIvan.30 I’ll add a free month of CrazyIvan.480 – and of course the reverse. Just send me an email after you signed up and I’ll take care of it.

Hope to see you on the other side.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Skynard

    Went short again 1680, added to AUD short (triple top .9230). This is our re-test and still think it is dangerous game to be long right now.

  • bdoone

    CPCE down to .45, lowest reading since Jan ’11.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    When Mole travels, strange things happen.
    Stranger things might happen if he meets CS.
    mini-black hole, Market lockup, WW3, this could be momentus.

    then again, something bigger would be they traveled to Vanuatu island (meeting Ivan).
    I don’t even want to contemplate that. (shudder).
    -DG

  • Ronebadger

    hasn’t been that low since Jan 2011, according to Stockcharts

  • bdoone

    Yes, thats where I got my Jan’11 date above.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Vanuatu is a country … a republic even … lol
    EDIT: Consisting of 83 islands

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    don’t spoil it. you’re sitting in a chair relaxing while lovely ladies serve you drinks.
    geeez. work with me

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Interesting indeed. This has usually been good for a correction although there have been cases when a spike this low was ignored.

  • Ronebadger

    sorry, BAD reading/skimming comprehension

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ladies? Crabs are the only ones that come to visit Ivan 😉

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Altered realities can be real … I refer to Vanuatu as “Paradise Lost”.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    With me it’s just bad comprehension.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s definitely off the beaten track.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • bdoone

    Thanks for the visual!

  • SirDagonet

    Of Mans First Disobedience, and the Fruit

    Of that Forbidden Tree,
    whose mortal tast

    Brought Death into the
    World, and all our woe,

    With loss of Eden, till one
    greater Man

    Restore us, and regain the
    blissful Seat

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Nice pickup … same vintage I guess!

  • SirDagonet

    not sure how many, um, modern maturity members are here other than you, me and BobbyLow

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Matters not … as ‘theirs’ is the challenge.

  • SirDagonet

    indeed 🙂

  • Skynard

    Nice exhaustion gap on SPX at the open.

  • ridingwaves

    GS, NIKE, VISA replace Alcoa, HP and BofA in dow 30…an index in motion..

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    All part of the ancient con of a stock index!
    EDIT: Same as the CPI

  • ridingwaves

    what a con it is…

  • bdoone

    And happening at close of Sept 20 trading, aka OPEX. Ought to be an interesting OPEX week

  • Skynard

    Bear flag 5 min.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Heads up for a potential long in Gold / Silver

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    XOM & CVX first 10 min, whoa.

  • Fearless

    So that leaves no representation from the mining sector in the DOW30 except a mining equipment supplier in CAT, which is not really considered mining sector stock. Interesting…

  • Skynard

    Agree 100%!

  • ridingwaves

    vxx volume is higher than spy as of this comment…weird

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Scott or mole; I’ve been studying the CI setups in the cheat sheet.
    Question about buying hammers in an trend up. Does a doji qualify as well as long as its lower spike meets the same qualifications as a hammer (spike length => 2x the body length)?

  • Ronebadger

    speculators….like me…

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Why not do the stats yourself?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    When shoe maker and payment processor replaces aluminum and computers in INDUSTRIAL average – makes me wonder about state of american industries. Lest not forget about replacing a branch bank with gambling casino.

    Thou methinks it will be good for index, as new addition are active issues, so kudos to Wall Street Journal editors for running DJIA like a top-notch ponzi scheme

  • Fearless

    Which actually fits my thesis about DJIA 16000. I was wondering how the DJIA was going to achieve that feat given the fact it is the weakest index during the most recent drop. Now it probably will get to that target relatively quick.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yes I will be doing so.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Then you will have the answer to your Q.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    1R achieved on the long

  • Skynard

    Something else of interest, the wedge on the hourly signal broke down today.

  • Skynard

    Nice! Will reap mine in Nov:)

  • BobbyLow

    This should make everybody feel better about the DJIA.

    When it comes to “The Shoe Maker” l believe that Nike shoes are made by workers getting paid about 50 Cents an Hour in countries like Indonesia and Viet Nam. Paying $150.00 for a pair of sneakers is about the only thing that’s “American”. Just about everything else about Nike is just exploitation.

  • saltwaterdog

    Didn’t see a TDA email today…. my approximation (5sec interval tick data vs Mole’s 1sec) is at 93%, suggesting a high prob UTD

  • Sean

    Not liking the longs after this run, probably not smart to chase it… would take a short on the /ES if we breach that NLSL today though (1677 on my chart)…

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    More like 2 bucks a day … I believe that is about the same as inmates in USA get for their labour as well … making / assembling goods for local USA market … not based on first hand experience!

  • Skynard

    5 min indicating a move coming.

  • Sean

    I’ve been meaning to go back and do the stats on this, but my sense is that the extreme tick readings have been a sign that loads were blown at the open and there is not much continuation left for the rest of the day… I’d much rather see between 70% & 80… but that is just my guess after a year or so of watching the emails, I should go back and check the stats on that when I don’t have a second day job…

  • ridingwaves

    Credit, the engine that grows america one charge off at a time..

  • bdoone

    Mole’s 1 sec? I thought he used 1min? I use 1min chart, 1st 45 mins. Today 39/45 closes>0 for 86.7%. Moderate++ trend day BUT no follow thru and TICK sma’s trending lower. I use a 9sma & 20sma. Selling into strength by big boys maybe but thats pure ment. mast.

  • Pervergence

    I know everybody is playing a bounce in GC….I’m sticking with my short from 1390 from several days ago

  • saltwaterdog

    He’s running 2700 1 tick bars, so 1sec for 45min worth. My data will only provide me 540 intervals (5sec) through 1015am EST

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Trading a view or a RBT?
    EDIT: Rule-Based Technique

  • Skynard

    VWAP test, last kiss:)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Pudding time on second long of long campaign

  • Skynard

    Yes, think PM’s will rocket now.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    I gave up ‘thinking’ ages ago … in relation to following RBT’s anyway … lol.

  • ridingwaves

    actually it hit bottom channel from chart I posted on 8/27, 1420-5 is key res…good time to buy with runup to 9/26 opex a good possibility

    http://s15.postimg.org/6gn14mr2j/Gold_827.jpg

  • Pervergence

    I see no reason to close out a winning trade to play what might be a short term bounce…..at least before I see a significant retest which will put us back below the 100hr lower BB

  • Ronebadger
  • Skynard

    Significant VWAP test should tell us here. Think she tanks, JMO:) PM’s dollar catching bid.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is actually some interesting input. I recall a pertinent article that suggested that the trend day signal didn’t work anymore. HOWEVER what may happen is that they ‘blow their load’ as you so aptly put it. So the distribution pattern of the first 45 minutes may be worth analyzing and put into context. Another project for later this year – right now I’m recovering from a 6 month+ project.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I fully support that. Nothing beats looking at a chart and developing your own statistics. You may just find something we have overlooked. Never underestimate the value of a fresh perspective.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ve been waiting for that one…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nobody ever knows what they will do – best you can do is to assess momentum potential. Just go with price and life will be much easier. Or you can torture your mind by digging through a mountain of useless fundamental data every day. The folks over at ZeroEdge are really good at that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thinking hurts my brain – too much Hefeweizen 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The Europeans over here are worse – I cannot believe what they are wiling to pay for clothes. When I travel to the States I always bring empty suitcases and load up on cheap clothes, vitamins, etc.

  • SS_JJ

    this is sweet music to my ears

  • ridingwaves

    12:53
    Gold could fall to $1,250 if Fed tapers next week: UBS
    hmmm…a setup is being built by the mm’s, which way does it go…

  • saltwaterdog

    Hourly RTV-S on ES?

  • Ronebadger

    yes

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes sir.

  • Skynard

    Hourly hooked back down, 5 min showing bear again, shall see.

  • saltwaterdog

    Wheat could get interesting… double inside day and pinned between support at 25 and 100hr, and resistance of 25 day. And I suppose that’s an RTV-B setup to boot on the daily

  • saltwaterdog

    If NG is a brutal bitch market, then Coffee is its ugly 3-headed mother

  • Skynard

    Things could get unly for longs me thinks:)

  • Ronebadger

    I hope all the trading computers heard that…. 😉

  • convictscott

    If you want the most accurate reading you need to use the most accurate data, which by definition is a 1 tick chart.

  • Skynard

    Let me push some more buttons here, comparatively speaking have a look at yesterdays 5 min signal and todays. Notice any difference?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    Fresh meat:)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    As a ‘trader’, one can always choose to trade around a core position … as a position-taker, that is a tad more difficult, especially from a mental perspective.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    You have a conventional underlying assumption behind your assertion regarding accuracy of data imo … what if it were equally true that inaccurate data can lead to winning trades or missed losing ones … as well as the other way round?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Especially the open of the coffee session … a real trap for young players!