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Waiting Out The QE Storm
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Waiting Out The QE Storm

by The MoleFebruary 25, 2015

No short term setups this morning as┬áI’m keeping myself busy with some coding/cleanup duties until today’s storm front has passed. In case you’ve missed it – we’ve got both Draghi and Yellen on the event roster today:

0207_Yellen_Draghi_Getty_web 2015-02-25_events

That’s a little too rich for my taste and I’m laying low until this blows over. If you’re exposed on the EUR or USD side be prepared for some turbulences. See you in a few hours!

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • MonkeyBusiness

    I see huge gaps in /HO and /RB and /ZB in TOS, is this data correct?

  • squirrelsome

    I think they have a problem showing the continuous contract. It’s rollover time. Use /RBH5, for example, you won’t see the gap.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, it probably has to do with their merge policy – I think there may be a setting in TOS. There is definitely one in Ninja.

  • MonkeyBusiness

    Thanks.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • M E

    whats that spike??

  • Skynard

    exuberance (capitulation)

  • M E

    eh, doubtful

  • BKXtoZERO

    I would appreciate any thoughts on this topic: After I found this site and finally started to do some self analysis I realized that I am basically a swing trader. All I have changed so far is taking a more disciplined approach for entries and exits and made sure to be up or not at all. I see that you guys recommend roughly 1-2% position sizing for (part of) risk management. My question is this: I am not trading futures or even options anymore. I trade mainly 3X ETFs so 1% of my 30K account isn’t going to buy much or yield much. Any suggestions on a propper position size for this approach would be appreciated. Thanks, BK

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am up to Aluminum Gerbil status but not a steel rat yet

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    {Blasphemy}!

  • squirrelsome

    The early bird gets fucked.

  • squirrelsome

    IF you find an ETF that puts you beyond the size of the account for a 1% risk then don’t trade it. Unfortunately, I know.

  • squirrelsome

    It means you use a too short time frame. Increase the time frame, your size is going to go down for the setups.

  • BKXtoZERO

    so plan on being right to your larger target and use smaller size to get there safely? thanks.
    Looks like my oil dream is still alive for a rip up.

  • BobbyLow

    I trade 2X ETFs and am a swing trader myself (on the energy side) of my business. What I suggest you do if you haven’t done so already is to back test as far back as you reasonably can. This would give you a general idea as to how many trades that you might have over certain time period. Another thing is that there are varying degrees of time within trading a swing – could be days or weeks etc. This should help you decide on your proper size. Also don’t underestimate the exponential power of Campaign Management.

    You need an anticipated win rate from your back testing in order to anticipate what your possible down drafts might be. You want to eliminate as many possible surprises that you can.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Back from the gym – didn’t miss much ­čśë

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This just came out of the lair’s genetic lab:

    http://40.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ldqnp84bgl1qfyqgno1_500.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Whatever you do – don’t feed them…

  • Ronebadger

    …then, they’ll follow you around forever…

  • Darkthirty

    Feed them alka seltzer tabs

  • Darkthirty

    Had a waitress with a sharp tooth like that….

  • Darkthirty

    No volume?

  • wandering196

    Zero 5min divergence…

  • squirrelsome

    LOL… scary GMO shit… need to print it, remind me what anticipation gets me…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    CAREFUL – it’s trending – I would ignore those for now. If you look at the ZL signature then you’ll see that this is how it has played out over the past few sessions. I should probably do a video on this one – if I find the time (very busy coding today).

  • wandering196

    You are right, just looks juicy! Great post yesterday

  • Darkthirty

    A system that backtests nicely for 6 years is BTFD!

  • mugabe

    how much longer will it be in its sweetspot?

  • Ronebadger

    Yes, I’d like a video/explanation. Isn’t today’s 5min ZL pattern just the kinda thing we’re watching/waiting for?

  • bullethead

    My lense/trade I took on crude for bkxtozero – http://screencast.com/t/hYLp3xdN

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    New post in the works…

  • Darkthirty

    Till it’s too late to get out. If the “market” was as blatantly rigged 10 years ago as it is now, We’d be done…….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey BH – if you post the actual image link instead of the screencast link it’ll show up in the comment:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/bullethead/folders/Jing/media/a707300c-21be-4a8b-8372-66a8f57eb032/2015-02-25_1301.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m not sure I have time today as I’m working on something extremely important and exciting. But I may try tomorrow morning.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s not a system – it’s just an entry. And define when you would BTFD. I’m serious btw.

  • ridingwaves

    Wall of worry markets usually make the bulls rich as everyone tries to time next move…..

  • Darkthirty

    Just blowing off, hard to go to work when algos are fuckin with your tools.

  • mugabe

    10 day low, 20 day low, cross below 50 day ma, etc.

  • mugabe

    this wall of worry meme doesn’t make much sense. if everyone was worried, it wouldn’t go up!

  • mugabe

    you need to find a profitable system that trades often enough … easy:)

  • BKXtoZERO

    ahhhh the old “fake break down set up”. I have not given up my resolve on this play (even after yesterday ;-0) looks pretty spiffy to me.

  • randomuser6789

    Perhaps you are not properly understanding the 1-2% issue. This is what you are risking not how much you are spending on a position. Risking 1% means $300. 100 shares of XYZ buy at $10/sh with stoploss at $7/sh equals risking $300 = 1% of $30K.

  • mugabe

    it either hits your stop or it doesn’t … resolve/what you think about it doesn’t really come into it, I’m afraid

  • Skynard

    ­čÖé

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve been long crude for the entire month of February and I’m back positive on the trade. Today was the first time that price actually went through my stop. However because I’m trading off of a Daily on this, I have a rule that I must wait for the close of the current candle to confirm my exit. I’ve been burned way too many times in the past not waiting for the close.

    We’re still in a relatively tight range so my expectations are null. However, I’ll keep my position open until I’m officially stopped out.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have a 1/2 position from here that I hold and was accepting more risk on, and then every day, I have been adding a heavier position with a hard stop looking for ignition.

  • mugabe

    invading Greece?

  • Skynard

    /NQ break of 4427 should have legs.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ____ ____ ____ ___ _ _ __ __ ____ __ ____
    ( ___)( _ ( ___)/ __)( )_( ) ( / )( ___) /__ (_ _)
    )__) ) / )__) __ ) _ ( ) ( )__) /(__) )(
    (__) (_)_)(____)(___/(_) (_) (_//_)(____)(__)(__)(__)

  • bullethead

    exactly

  • bullethead

    Crude and Gold are no longer than hourly time frames for the initial set-up. Move like they’re on crack

  • bullethead

    will do. hell I was proud that I even figured jing out. lol.