Wednesday Morning Briefing
Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.
To start things off here’s a quick reminder of where we left off last week. Unless your house was flushed down the Atlantic you probably recall that we were waiting for a breach of the 100-hour SMA. We had it all figured out, didn’t we? A VIX buy signal had finally materialized and the plan was to get positioned as soon as the E-Mini would pop its head above that SMA. And then hurricane Sandy had to literally blow our plans out of the window. How dare mother nature to interfere with our carefully crafted schemes?
Well, the difference at this point are ten handles as we are scraping the upper boundary of the 100-hour Bollinger. And that apparently is the prevalent theme across the board this morning. The big question here is – what happens next? On the daily side we are sitting right at a NLBL. I didn’t want to wait until later this evening to draw your attention to this rather important inflection point. It’s been a while since we even touched one. If nothing else today ought to be interesting as we lost two trading sessions this week, making today the last opportunity to ‘paint the month’ if you will.
Since many of you guys have been through a lot I’m going to make this a freebie. But please keep it quiet – after all I have a bad reputation to live up to.
Here’s only the hourly panel – I wanted to highlight the fact that the 100-hour BB has now shrunk to a mere 20 handles.
AUD/USD – sitting on a NLSL plus its 25-hour SMA. It’s been slowly coiling up over the past few days and I expect some resolution here and that soon. So watch the support level as it should lead to acceleration.
EUR/AUD – right at the top of my 100-hour BB. It’s looking strong but I think we’ll face a bit of ST resistance here.
EUR/USD – much to my chagrin (I live in Spain now) running higher in a jiffy. Also touching the upper BB and that could mean some upside resistance.
Crude seems to be getting the Monty Python treatment and it’s hourly BBs have been squeezed to the max. This already started before Sandy blew our collective candles out and the past two futures sessions are a continuation of the ongoing sideways trend. At some point (perhaps after the election – ahem) I expect things to start picking up here. So keep an eye on this – I will post an update as soon as I see movement on the daily.
The dollar is asking for more punishment – please sir, can I have another? At the bottom of the hourly BB stack now but it’s not looking good.
Gold – 14 handle BB range – this is getting ridiculous. Perhaps it’s the quiet before the storm. Oh wait – too late…
Silver looking a bit more animated. At the top of its hourly range and looking for a clue as to what to do next.
Soybeans at possible support. We also have a NLBL and the 100-hour waiting above. Let’s see what happens here as it’s only a five handle range before we should see some sort of decision of what happens next.
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