No Crying Over Spilled Milk (Or Beer)

I’m sure you all know what I’m talking about. Here we were trying to short this bitch several times in the past two days which on my end resulted in three ignominious stop outs – the last one at 1982. Only 1.5R lost, so it wasn’t a big deal but pretty much what I told you yesterday ‘would happen’ of course ‘did happen’ the next day. There was no reason for my stop to be at 1986 – it was too far in enemy territory. And then equities got Amazoned and here we are fifteen SPX handles lower. So what do we do now?

I tell you what we’re going to do. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. We did everything in our power to exploit an entry opportunity near an inflection point and we simply didn’t get in. That’s life and unless you were on the inside there was no knowing ahead of time that Bezos would slip on the banana peel last night. Don’t beat yourself up – actually better yet, get used to it. Which is why we don’t take large risks on the equities side – or any correlated market for that matter. 1% is the max and if you’re a stock market junkie then always keep a close eye on being as delta neutral as possible (look it up or ask in the comment section).

Now on the ES futures we’re near 1971 right now and there are no major support zones nearby. ES 1966 looks like the next best line in the sand as the 100-hour BB is lingering around down there.

The S&P cash however has been holding its 100-hour SMA and we’ll have to wait until Monday to see if it holds.

But the real news of the day is the one that hasn’t been reported. While everyone else is talking about yesterday’s losers I’ve been taking a long position on the Dollar side (yes, I can’t believe I just said that). This is actually a weekly setup I shared with my subs last night and originally we’ve been expecting ole’ bucky to do the same old thing which is fold like a chair near any major LT resistance. Now I can’t promise/expect that this time it’ll be different but those two NLBL breaches do look promising. The fun may begin if we see a pop aboe 80.993 – so make it 81. That’s where the 25-day SMA sits right now and we’ve got plenty of air looming above.

This is the first time I’ll show the turkish lira here and I have to confess that I haven’t traded this one before. So I’ll ease myself into this one with 1/2R. I however do like the double inside day – and I’ll play the outer one on the stop side. I hope that’s clear as I don’t think my drawing is. Long Sunday on either breach of today’s candle (high or low) – but set your stop on the opposite side of the Thursday candle.

More setups waiting below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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And now it’s time again to kick back and crack open a bottle of your favorite alcoholic beverage. As you all know in my case that of course would be a bottle of Hefeweizen. A simple Paulaner is one of my favorites – it’s smooth but has that typical Bavarian disciplined but hefty flavor. Simple pleasures…. Well, I hope to see you all next week :-)

Prost!

The Bad Boy Buy Bots Are Back!

Something caught my attention last Thursday, exactly a week ago. You may remember the UVOL chart I shared with you that showed a red sell interest curve that to at least to me appeared a bit unnatural, if you will. It appeared that selling pressure was constant and highly organized – thus suggesting that it was driven mainly by bots and most likely not human traders.

Well, guess what – apparently the bad boy buy bots are now having their turn – as a matter of fact they appear to have been rather active for the past three days. Take a look at the chart above where I highlighted the┬ádays when selling pressure was constant with very minor intra-day retracements.

Of course you may wonder why we would care, right? Does it matter if the bots are buying and not humans? I think I do because what really drives the tape these days are automated strategies and not human beings. Just look at the buy curves on down days – they don’t look very organized to me. As a matter of fact the curves are quite a bit more random which suggests that some people got squeezed out of their positions and had to sell their long exposure. The sell curve however looks smooth and organized – coincidence? I think not.

If you want to develop a better feel for what drives this market then you need to pop open the hood and take a peek at the engine. How it runs is as important as to where it takes you. Perhaps the bulls simply pulled over a few days ago deciding it was time for an oil change ;-)

On the spoos we are now approaching the 25-day SMA and a NLBL – we have about 15 handles to go and whether or not we get there today, this is where I expect some type of resistance. On the weekly side we are peeking over that NLSL – if the bulls manage to close above it tomorrow it would be a small victory as it would reverse the prior signal and also give us a nice weekly hammer with a tail touching weekly support at the 25-week SMA. But I want to be clear that the bulls are NOT out of the woods just yet. Failure at the 25-day could easily swing this thing back lower – so don’t get complacent.

Excellent setup on silver today after a pretty nasty sell off yesterday. I’m still holding some short positions and have now moved my stop to the inside day’s buy trigger. If you’re not exposed here yet then play the ID as you always would.

USD/JPY – popping over its 25-day SMA and if it can hop over the weekly NLSL at 98.57 we would have confirmation that the long side is probably the way to go. Again, I showed this yesterday already and the converging daily SMAs were a perfect inflection point.

As usual, more goodies below for my intrepid subs – please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Cheers,

Weekend Becomes Eclectic

We have a nice mix of material to work through this weekend so let’s get to it. About two weeks ago, as the SXP was pushing toward 1600, I suggested that we may see a short term shake out and that’s we got. Of course buyers followed up just a few days later and that now leaves us with an interesting configuration on the weekly panel:

I’m currently seeing the possibility of a Retest Variation Sell setup – it’s not complete yet and would require a drop below last week’s low to trigger. Very interestingly there’s also a weekly NLSL sitting nearby at 1539 offering additional support. Personally I think the odds of this setup failing are probably better than 60% and if we drop lower again this week I would be actively looking for long exposure near that weekly NLSL. A breach of course would lead us lower but at this point that’s pure Asimov.

The SPX P&F is bullish as heck and is now pointing at 1695 as its next price objective. Again, that’s a long term target, always keep that in mind.

But it may be the daily panel that may give us early clues as to where we’re heading next. Last Friday the spoos painted an inside period and the range is rather small which makes for a juicy setup this Monday.

Before we get to my laundry list of long term charts I wanted to offer some perspectives on the USD/JPY, which I think just made its first step toward a long journey to the upside. That breach of the 100-month SMA is significant and although we can’t rule out the possibility of a retest that SMA will now most likely become the basis of a climb much higher. The weekly panel already successfully re-tested a NLBL and as long as it holds we’re off to the races.

Well, I warned you this would be an eclectic mix of charts. AAPL showing first signs of hope as the bears were just put on notice via a low pole reversal warning. The bearish PO remains in place but a push above 430 would change that and possibly put us back into some longs. Well, it’s been a great ride down – let’s see what happens here in the coming week. If you’re still short AAPL then a push above 430 should be your signal to pull the cord.

But we’re just getting warmed up – a lot more waiting below. Please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





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