I can literally see you guys scratching your collective heads, so let’s precede the charts with what the heck a ‘triptych’ is supposed be. Here you go – lifted right off Wikipedia: A triptych is a work of art (usually a panel painting) that is divided into three sections, or three carved panels which are hinged together and can be folded shut or displayed open. It is therefore a type of polyptych, the term for all multi-panel works.
Well, I guess that cleared it all right up then, didn’t it? And you’ll be happy to know that all triptychs presented today were painstakingly hand-carved by yours truly. That’s right – we spare no expense here at Evil Speculator! (RIP Richard!)
Alright now seriously – it’s the end of the month and since the tape is diddle daddling around the 2k mark, pretending that it has any real meaning, this is as good a time as ever to revisit a few of our long term charts. And guess what – we’ll do it triptych style, meaning we look at the daily|weekly|monthly panels side by side. This way we are able to better discern where potential inflection points are present.
Starting of course with equities here we have the E-Mini futures – purists would insist on charting the cash but on the long term side I think it’s acceptable to use them as price differences sort of wash out. As you can see there is – well, actually there’s almost nothing to be seen here in terms of upside resistance. I see a truck load of weekly and monthly support, for that matter. For instance there’s the brand spanking new NLSL on the weekly backed up by the 25-week SMA. On the monthly we’ve got the diagonal from hell which has been frustrating the bears for several years now. And every month higher produces another stepping stone for the bulls per the Net-Line rules (see the cheat sheet).
So we are looking at a solid trend here folks and if you cut out all the noise it’s never been really threatened this year, despite the little drop we recently played quite effectively.
This chart paints a big smile on this lowly expat’s silly face – old bucky finally got its groove on and there’s really nothing holding it back until about 83.5. That is where I expect to be scaling out of those long positions which have been adding much ill-gotten gains to my trading account.
More non-cryptic triptychs below the fold – secret decoder ring required:
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Well, it’s been a fun and most of all – very profitable – summer for us steel rats. If you played along then you pad yourself on the shoulder and reward yourself with generous helping of your favorite malt beverage. Your mileage may vary but you know what that means for this old market megalomaniac
Judging by the participation in the comment section you guys aren’t amused by today’s tape and I can’t really blame you. So let’s mosey over to the Forex side as it’s looking a lot more tantalizing.
The Dollar is taking it on the chin today and the DX is now back at the 100-hour SMA. That’s actually rather healthy as I prefer it see take a breather and shake out some weak hands as opposed to snapping higher and painting a blow off top. Let’s see what happens here – a close today below the daily NLSL could lead to more downside – however, I would watch the 100-hour, if it holds this may be contained. Next support zone is near 82.13.
I’m short the EUR/USD right now just before its daily NLBL. That is an excellent entry until it clears that 100-hour SMA. Not averse to flipping if being stopped out. It’s been an extended sell off for this pair and if it manages to finally clear a daily NLBL we could see a little jump higher shedding some of the fat.
AUD/USD – very nice formation here and also consider that juicy Bollinger compression on the daily. I want to be long above that NLBL with a stop below today’s lows.
Finally AUD/JPY – this is an hourly play on a breach above the current NLBL. If it does then we could see an extended squeeze here, which would not be out of the norm for a currency pair. Many top callers here and although I’m only going to drop 1/2R into this it may pay off well if it catches some traction.
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We are nearing the finale of the Jackson Hole Symposium and anyone who wasn’t invited (i.e. the 99.99999%) is standing by with bated breath to receive the latest economic doctrines conceived by our two venerable high priests of modern finance (Draghi & Yellen). I personally couldn’t care less about what they cooked up for us as the real song and dance always happens behind the scenes. So as long as it doesn’t involve virgins*, goat blood, or a temporary suspension of algebra we ought to be fine. My suggestion would be to sit it out and make better use of your time.
They are going to drag this out all the way and I’m afraid markets won’t really have absorbed the full impact of the two statements until Sunday night. So we advance our stops and stand by for new instructions.
On the spoos (and implicitly on my NQ chart) I am of course looking for support levels as we are invariably going to see some wild swings. Markets are skittish up here and any wrong intonation of a single word can drop equities by double digits. On the hourly ES I see 1980 as a soft support zone – but more realistically 1968 should hold a first stab lower (should it happen).
IF we drop lower than that I’m afraid there would be more momentum than we can anticipate right now and the 100-day at SPX 1920 would be my next pick. On the upside of course I see little holding this thing back – we are so overbought that it’s impossible to find resistance clusters here.
Scott asked me about my DX campaign yesterday – here’s where we are on the long term panels. Clearly we have room to run until 83.5 where I would expect heavy resistance as the upper 100-week and 25-month Bollingers correlate there. Of course we may resolve lower and if we drop hard 81 makes for good support right now.
Obviously I won’t be taking any more setups ahead of today’s big announcements. If anything significant transpires later this afternoon I may chime in quickly. But frankly I’m looking forward to my normal routine starting next week – see a schedule with the most crucial events above. We do have a few marketquakes© on the roster but they happen before the open and thus we may actually get a chance to have some fun in between. I see you then.