The Next Hurdle

This month’s FOMC water torture is finally behind us and as expected it stirred up a bit of movement in equities and of course on the FX side. I’m feeling a bit under the weather today so forgive me if I’ll make this a quick and snappy one.

After a clever shake off attempt late yesterday the E-Mini’s aggressive advance continued unabated. We are now approaching the next significant hurdle which is a pronounced volume hole near 1440 and change. As usual we can expect some tough love there for the Johnny Come Lately Candle Chasers.

Thanks to Bernanke’s continued QE adventures most of our EUR based FX setups are now in great shape. I am not going to list them all but if you grabbed a few of yesterday’s symbols then your account should be nicely in the green right now.

Yesterday’s early entry on the EUR/USD will at least dampen some of the pain I can expect at the ATM. (I moved to Spain earlier this year.) The target range above isn’t exactly baked in but if we see a push above 1.31 (I should have painted a diagonal resistance line) things could accelerate nicely.

Bonds fell below the 100-day SMA yesterday which was our signal to grab some short exposure. So far it’s looking good and my target range is near 145’20.

Cocoa is painting an interesting setup as it just crept over its 100-hour SMA. Fortuitously it also sliced through a daily NLBL and and with some luck may jump over both daily SMAs. I’m long here with a generous stop below the 100-hour SMA.

Again, my apologies for the quick post – I hope to be my old nefarious self again tomorrow.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 12th, 2012 at 1:57 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • chrisgoldman

    A very impressive move higher today on the /ES. I’d really like see them try to push it higher so that we can enjoy a nice market meltdown!

  • RacerXX

    Irish flu?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    @Molecool
    Thanks, Mate
    Hope you get better soon

  • Microwave_Prince

    Banks are still sitting on all this oil waiting to unload it when the price goes up. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ab4nlifTEYjw

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Don’t you love how fed ramp gets reversed every time.
    It’s like deja-vu or something…

  • BobbyLow

    If that’s true, doesn’t that give you a warm and fuzzy  whenever there’s talk about an oil shortage?

    BTW, I’m still long oil and will add more if we can get a little over 87 and stay above.   

  • Joe_Jones

    What’s the word again AMC? Oh yeah…pegged 
    :-0 hmmmffd

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The tape is a pain in the ass lately. Traps inside of traps.

  • AMCabrera

    yes pegged indeed.

  • AMCabrera

    not nzd or aud against dollar OR if it had a jpy at the end of it just parabolic.

  • bdoone

    Thanks, I needed that.  I was just kicking myself for not catching this little downdraft but then was thinking there was no real reason or set-up to sell it for other than taking a shot, which is not the thing to do when Bens talking.  Just as easily could’ve launched higher.

  • Joe_Jones

    That’s peg in the a..  Mole

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    This is like déjà-vu all over again
    Yogi Berra

  • AMCabrera

    now lemme me just sit back and relax.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     me no speeky good english

  • Joe_Jones

    You should come up with an indicator that flashes red when 95% of “investors” have lost money ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_KmNZNT5xw
    There is a fault in the Matrix

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    You’re fine, I just love his quote
    It is déjà vu to sept 13th but Ben is scaring people today.
    Short the Russell on RTV Sell IP on the 120 min

  • amokta

    Higher highs & higher lows for $SPX on multiple time frames?
    $ZNGA on the move also.

  • Microwave_Prince

    S&P clearly doesn’t like Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    back from a loooong lunch.
    did I miss much?

  • amokta

    Only 20 point round trip on spx
    Were back home folks! :-)

  • Joe_Jones

    You probably seen it already in another life…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Spanish Fly.

  • Pervergence

    I do…..lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehe :-)

  • Pervergence

    I want Liz for presidente

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah well the Zero wasnt buying the ramp anyway! I am sure you noticed.

  • Skynard

    That was a wild ride.

  • bdoone

    Santa rally in jeopardy with that doji and IWM island reversal w/outside day?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb

    for you? i’m surprised.
    but yes, you can see why I pulled the plug pre-FOMC.

    http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/510WRPgKmdL._SL500_SS500_.jpg

    shenanigans.

  • BobbyLow

    Me too.

  • Skynard

    Kind of figured, still bullish. Market has the sheep scrambling:0 That was only 10 pts!
    Tagged the hourly 25 lower BB.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Zen_Gerb
  • Microwave_Prince

    Noticing a lot of stocks sitting on 50% lines, so maybe the S&P is overvalued by a similar amount?

  • Joe_Jones

    Hey! What happened to the image that said:
    “peg me”, “no, peg me, “me first”…   ;-)

  • http://twitter.com/law6 law

    Get Better Mole

    we need ya

  • wandering196

    ditto !!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Skynard

    Long way to go, just crossed the 23:)

  • carmelbythesea

    now we know why you moved to Spain http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20705742

  • MrMargin

    P&F is now showing a new price objective of 1510. But I’m starting to dislike this market. Here’s the weekly SPX chart: http://scharts.co/U9wqmP  We have essentially gone nowhere for 20 months and this whole move looks like a giant triangle. Volume has declined steadily and that last high was accompanied by an RSI divergence. Those are all big red flags in my book, but it’s too early to call for the final top since we could very well see a strong last leg up that will shake the early bears out.

  • Skynard

    /DX, 80 now resistance. Don’t think it happens tonight. Check out those tails, The bus is really empty now:)

  • Turps

    Gold getting hammered

  • Skynard

     Looks like a re-test of 1700 level. If it does not hold it would still make a good short:)

  • newbfxtrader

    If it failed to go up today I would not try any longs.

  • Microwave_Prince

    Oil is the Achilles heel of this market.

  • Skynard

    That’s what I told myself the last time the market could not go higher:0

    Would really like to see a classic blow-off style top.

  • Curiousmind3861

    the bus for long dollar is empty??

  • Skynard

    Keeping an eye on 79.72, the weekly NLSL.

  • newbfxtrader

    Are you talking about gold or aud/jpy?!

  • Skynard

    Equities, getting really close to the short. AUDJPY target is still 89, could even make a new high:)

  • newbfxtrader

    minor blow off. Big ones coming next year 1550 at least! How do you see 89? 

  • Skynard

    Weekly AUDJPY

  • Microwave_Prince

    Thinking AUD/JPY could squeeze all the way to 92.5. But the long term divergence should still be there.

  • newbfxtrader

    Ah thx. I didnt think we would see the weekly top this year. I will wait for 89 and ambush!

  • Skynard

    The weekly BB is also pointing up, could see fireworks. Will bee ready:)

  • Skynard

    Still have time, thinking by year end we watch for a target:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Much depends on how we finish the week. A retest of the 50d sma would be healthy for the Santa Rally:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX 

  • Microwave_Prince

    Apparently the “Al Nusra” (terrorist) rebels in Syria are only a kilometer away from Syria’s largest chemical weapons storage facility and could have control of it by tomorrow.

  • AMCabrera

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Arab_News_Agency
    “let freedom ring” or some shit like that. 

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    What? Silver down 3% and all PM  down. Dollar is higher, but just a bit.
    Anybody heard any news?

  • newbfxtrader

    They sold the news yesterday my friend…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     I see it dropped big around 8pm est last night. Yesterdays news don’t fit. Try something else :)

  • AmazingLarry

    PM’s typically front-run the Fed and then sell off, finding either a new low or retracing at least 61.8 of latest daily swing move before taking off again. Looks to me like it takes on avg about 10 days to find that new bottom. Maybe bounce at $1680 in gold as there’s a nice volume hole there? This also matches the new support trendline as it drifts East. “News” be damned.

  • newbfxtrader

    Hehe silver down more than gold. Basically risk off trade. Maybe QE4 was all priced in.

  • Schwerepunkt

    The “T” word is way overused. It now seems to apply to anyone who disagrees with our view of the world. 

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Whatever the reason (and they all are old ones), I am considering to flip and go short Silver and miners via ZSL and DUST

  • AMCabrera

    still nzd is up here still..even the latest short from yesterday is now almost negative one pip.

  • Schwerepunkt

    We’ve got numbers coming this morning. There’s usually backing and filling and positioning going on before unemployment, retail sales and PPI.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    I’m still alive if anyone cares…

  • Microwave_Prince

    I share that mindset, but I must ask… are you following the events in Syria? Because there are factions of the rebel army which aren’t terrorists.





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