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Bears MIA
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Bears MIA

by The MoleJuly 17, 2009

You would think that the bears would launch a counter offensive today but you’d be waiting in vain:

It seems that we are well supported here and unless we breach 93.25 in the next hour or so, we’ll most likely end the day higher.

Here’s a little inspiring video for the bears:

It’s a bit long but well worth watching all the way through. That’s how a counter offensive looks like, but don’t wait for it to happen in the markets, you will be sadly disappointed.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Douala

    Battle at Kruger

    Resembles the battle on Wall Street this week.

    The Players
    Lions: Bears
    Buffalo: Bulls
    Crocodile: PPT

    [mole: Glad you changed your mind! 😉 ]

  • annamall

    Good thoughts Mole, and I couldn't agree more. BTW you had this week pegged on Sunday and if most (including me) from the get go had listened this week wouldn't have been so painful!

    :-)

  • annamall

    For those of you interested in POT that should pin @ 90 by EOD. :)

  • Coldwarvet

    Oops thread reset.
    One more time then, watch the 50 week SMA on .spx. If it DOES close above, that's a sign this could continue. If it bounces off and retraces next week, ruh roh.

    http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?…

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, Mole was always doubtful about the move down & advised staying out.

    If we'd followed that advice we'd have fewer badly singed bears here this week.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • annamall

    Done! :)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    shared

  • molecool

    Yes, hat tip to Douala for sharing it.

  • GDII

    i see dbl head everywhere.
    bear died yesterday for sure. will we see bull killing this afternoon?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    90.80

  • denali92

    The BEARS did go for it this morning and got SMACKED back – at 7:49am it really looked like we might have one of those great GAP down, reversal trend days down – BAC was falling, GE was a mess, Google was weak, but there were too many weak hand shorts at that point in time – really disappointing – still, we are trading similar to March 09 Opex with the Thursday high (though not the Thursday sell off) If we follow true to form from that day, we could close at the lows – the question will then be whether it is a one day wonder or the start of a reversal in to Tuesday or Wednesday. My bets are placed – I think we get down to 875 880 on Tuesday or Wednesday before exploding upwards AGAIN!

  • Coldwarvet

    I chose “The Black Swan” 😉

  • annamall

    Curious which one?

  • annamall

    any good?

  • Douala

    No that is ok… I am just glad you posted it. Yaaaaaaawn….Another slow day on Wall Street.

  • goldpackers

    WOW ! That would surprise the most which is what this market does best! I have Tuesday / Wednesday as big Gann days and the 29th/30th.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    few weeks ago I bought Way of the Turtle off the link. Really good book. I recently bought Trend Following.

  • goldpackers

    Have been calling for a high 7-17 to 7-22 and down into at least 7-29/30 and favor 8-4 to 8-13 before a big rally. Will See!! AAPL's earnings are next.

  • Coldwarvet

    I'll letcha know when I read it!

    I've been thinking of ordering this for awhle, so it made sense.

  • Douala

    This has to keep the “Yes We Can… Obama Man Can” up at night.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/withholdin

  • hankthedog

    Me: The guy in the clip that keeps repeating “My God, I've never seen anything like this.”

  • C.C. Rider

    Stealth move, looks like they ram it higher.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_tJnj2j5kI

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the bears will show up in mass next week as the market tops out, hopefully on my birthday, the 20th. then down she goes

  • annamall

    I really like Big Bear Barry. Whoa that is jaw dropping thanks for the link Douala! :)

  • annamall

    Ok thanks Cold! :) please do.

  • goldpackers

    Hear House has passed health care out of committee (stealth). And now to the Senate.

  • perspective
  • denali92

    It may be too obvious, but for me, the following things point to it:

    -Incredibly overbought on an hourly basis
    -Weakness post Opex
    -In late May, we bounced off 880 – similar to how we have done now and then had a fade in to the following week before blasting off to new highs

    For my money, it is the trade that would mess the most people up – that is why I am backing it!

    ________________________________

  • annamall

    I think today may end up in a draw (doji) IBM pushing up tape and GE pulling it down alhough IBM has allot more weighing than GE does, so we may end slightly in green.

    I am long APA, (natural gas on fire)SNP (Chinese petro and chemical) out of Google, long SPY calls August 95.

    So far this is a yawner! zzzzzzzzzzzz I may go to gym early today and work out instead of looking at this tape.

  • dollar

    What if the bears don't show up, but the buyers also decide they're done?

  • ropey

    low volume = up right now -t hat's the way it's been since march

  • AudioTactics

    I've noticed that the market has consistently been changing direction after the weekend.

    After this week's amazing run-up, I'm looking for a direction change on Monday and I'm short. Clearly the bulls have run out of steam and we failed to press above yesterday's close although there's still plenty of time in the day so who know's how it will play out.

    Also, from a fundamental perspective, the economic data has been horrendous despite appearances (seasonal adjustments) and all of the positive spin in the MSM.

    I think the lipstick on this economic pig can only work for so long. When you look at the GE details, there are only losses across the board in most businesses. And, as I mentioned earlier, Ken Lewis said the 2nd half of their year will be more difficult than the first. The spin doctors expecting a solid recovery just do not understand the economics of this balance sheet recession.

  • ropey

    you cannot base any analysis from opex day on where the market goes next week, but if anything its a bullish continuation although personally i'm still expecting a drop to 925 re:above before the next move higher

  • goldpackers

    Expect drop to 910 +/- 5 spx even if bullish, beginning by Wednesday at the latest. Looks like one more daily high at best.

  • dollar

    BKX dropping, guess they're not buying the new asset valuations.

  • Douala

    Sis… Might want to show that to Rocco and tell him that is what happens when you stray away from home.

  • Douala

    Ooops sorry I was referring to the video. My boo boo.

  • Douala

    Looks like everyone here has picked up the loans for Mole's family back in the mother land. 😉

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/123

  • 1981er

    asked you yesterday but no answer… if u open the links in a new tab do u still get the love?

  • 1981er

    asked you yesterday but no answer… if u open the links in a new tab do u still get the love?

  • 1981er

    Looks a bit like an ascending triangle on the /NQ 5 min

  • annamall

    hahahah no problem 😀

  • ennuigo

    There's been a coup and the country doesn't even know it!

  • ropey

    POT flying..

  • 1981er

    POT? Look at MOS for the past 2 days…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    something is cooking with commercial real estate, SRS on current pullback failed to cross RSI 38 – the “bulls last stand”
    http://screencast.com/t/DiWaI62YgF
    (disclosure – I am heavy long SRS)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    got that move dead on, closed last call today (biting my elbows while looking at AGU – had to hold that one, more upside possible). Leery of dollar move up short term
    http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2009/07/aggs

  • moneyfarm

    IYR looks weak too. 60d/60m has neg divergences on RSI and MACD. I have Sept 33 puts.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it is interesting how 12.45 acted as resistance on XLF for a long time – if it closes above it now (forming kind of symmetrical triangle now) – it might just move up
    http://screencast.com/t/dvCsSY2CkUd

  • Lordted

    Amazing Vid Mole… Just shows what “Bulls” can do….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I'd rather be watching XHB than any DJ indexes – screw NYSE
    and XHB is right at critical point now – if it closes above 12.50 today – more upside to come
    http://screencast.com/t/PilsRPssXL
    daily RSI (the only AssCillator I use) is above 62 – strong
    on hourly is is slightly overbot, but on 10min – ready to move up again

  • moneyfarm

    HS forming on /ES 3m chart? Possible rt should forming now with neckline at 932?

  • Osso

    CIT bouncing now..!!!

  • Osso

    always follow this one David….13 is neckline….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    don't get me started on H&S, please :)
    All this patterns available to every single retail trader through “pattern scans” all over the places are called to be faded in my trading book.
    only long term trendlines deserve respect now…still less than ever before..

  • Ghostdog

    DavidT,

    Nice call on the dollar I tend to agree with you there. I am getting the same bull signal to buy the S&P when it was hanging at the neckline that I am now getting on the dollar, barring a collapse of it into the close. If the dollar hangs around here it should catch a bid and the spooz should at least get a pullback.

    Note the divergences in Crude and other comms, namely Corn. They can do this for awhile but very very shortly someone is going to have to pay because this just cant go for much longer. It might be exactly her but we are very close to a shot at a turn. As with the Spooz call, if the low of the dollar today is exceeded, we can get a run.

  • Osso

    maybe later…MSFT reporting july 23, with AMZN and other big ones.

  • annamall

    Whoa check it out CIT, I had put on a 1/2.5 l October call spread for a lotto ticket for .25 cents could make up to 1.25 for it!

  • Fujisan

    H/B Alpha. Dont' we have one more leg up before it drops? Although typically Monday after OPX is a big down day.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    H&S on the Euro, setting up for a breakdown next week
    http://screencast.com/t/y2X1V7nD3I

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    here comes 427.5 on goog – second time is a charm?

  • LostIllini

    SPY 3minute, I get the feeling I know how this is going to resolve….careful bears…..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Even AIG is green today lol

  • Douala

    TOS has called in AAPL shorts on this trader. I didn't know that was possible.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/market-pl

  • AudioTactics

    Actually the analysis has less to do with opex day and more to do with a trending week followed by a change in direction the following Monday…

  • onorio

    IMO 1.3900 to end that H&S and (e) wave….than we will have real fireworks

  • Teich50

    Synthesize the short using options. Think put-call parity :)

    If the broker won't let you sell naked calls, use a bear call spread.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    EUR is in no men land here between 1.4116 and 1.4338.
    unless it will decisively break above 1.4338 it is more of a short in about 3 days than long – hope it will go slightly higher for better short entry – I'll be watching it next Wednesday.
    This damn market is too much fun lately

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    e wave then a burst higher?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    see reply above to v8muscle
    as for continues divergences in rising market with no sellers – it is done so easily by propping few sectors per day and the rest is just sitting flat with no convinced sellers – all those dimwits who shorted “neckline” are bout gone by now.
    So much for charts patters – even Bulkovsky admitted that most of patterns lately are as good as flipping the coin (not speaking of his “u had to buy 2 weeks ago indicator – thou I have a lot of respect for that guy – a lot of work went into his stat research )

  • trabuco

    AAP…..NOT AAPL….

  • onorio

    yes, we`re in a triangle since june 3rd…probably a wave 4

  • molecool

    LOL – what you mean??? I for one am glad – the last four days are about as much as I can take 😉

  • Douala

    LOL……….. Daaaaaaaaaaaa!

  • molecool

    Well, after this long 3rd wave we should get a fourth to the downside – which might be Monday.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Nice.I bought at .80 ..Selling at .90 Hope it gets there

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Exactly. Education really distinguishes the pros from the amateurs.

  • molecool

    T.K. latest post pretty much is saying the same in his latest post – TA has broken down.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Interesting stuff, but it doesnt make sense to what I know. When you short a stock, my understanding was that your broker must actually borrow those shares, either right then, on the spot or within 3 days.

    So becoming “hard to borrow” should not affect any existing positions. This would appear fraudulent. They are trying to scare peope out of the position perhaps?

    TOS was bought by Ameritrade–this was perceived as bad thing when it happened a few months back.

    I guess I have to really start getting familiar with my Interactive Brokers account which seems much more difficult to use.

  • Osso

    better raise stops and let it ride…it may have legs if its true GS/JPM are going to do something. Remember GS has $$$ billions in CDSs re CIT.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Possible channel for you channel hounds.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/i-spy-n

  • molecool

    I just sent the following to Tom Sosnofff:

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/market-pl

    If you want to take the opportunity to clarify what's going on I would be happy to post your response verbatim to my blog (EvilSpeculator). The rats are not happy about these kind of games – especially after this week's vapor rally. To clarify – we are not blaming ThinkOrSwim – we would like to know who notified you about a potential shortage of shares in AAP.

    Cheers,

    Mole

  • Fujisan

    Oh, I thought that we are getting a forth wave right now.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Shit to late i got out at .90…

  • molecool

    What he means is to sell a call and buy a put – that's a synthetic short position. The advantage is that you are greek-neutral just like when long/short stock.

  • Teich50

    No, the broker lets you short only when they have shares available (i.e., someone else longing the shares). I have had my broker (OPXS) forced-cover my AZO shorts before :(

    I think they are trying to prevent naked shorting of shares.

  • Osso

    its more Penson than TOS…..several stocks are in the same advise…w/Penson

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    As I had quite a larger amount of short positions the past few weeks I probably had 10 stocks that had forced covering in the past 2 weeks. They let me short it first and if they cannot get shares they cover me before 10:00AM.

  • Teich50

    On the other hand, if shares are really hard to borrow everywhere, put-call parity does not hold, since the Black-Scholes equation, using a risk-neutral valuation model, assumes free hedging of the underlying (long or short).

    It happened last Fall when we were not allowed to short the financials. Put differently, the put writers need to ask for more if they cannot short the underlying to hedge.

  • gusrock1414

    Mole, that video rocked. I really do not care how much money Goldman and Morgan can make trading pieces of paper back and forth or raising equity to bail out their failing brethren. The companies that make and sell stuff are not making much headway. The revenue numbers are horrible. Mattel sales were down 19%. General Electric saw a 17% decline. Callaway Gold lowered its sales expectations and now thinks sales for the year will drop 15 to 19%. Cost cutting means reduced spending and layoffs and I have a hard time putting a positive spin on that.

  • annamall

    ut oh sistah!!! ROTFLMAO heheheh

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    unashamedly stole this chart, but it's very compelling. appears we have nearly completed a megaphone topping pattern. wave four is on now, and who know what 5 will do, kind of depends on the dollar finishing its waves iv and v down. but i expect this to be over by mid to end of next week.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • annamall

    They call me in on something 2 days ago! I couldn't believe it! WTF

  • dollar

    So are you guys saying we have to go back to….fundamentals?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    BTW – that is what T.K. banned me for:

    T.K. “Trendline violated…”

    DDT “'Trendline schmendline violated … violate my … with all due respect” :)
    If you see how often people change at SOH disqus – my statement that people losing money listening to him is not that far fetched.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    stop cursing!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    since I am know as Mad Russian – I might go short INTC on failure to close the day above 18.64

  • annamall

    Here comes the squeeze!

  • ropey

    seriously this is taking the piss – i guess earnings don't matter anymore then – all of the earnings bar one was on cutting costs, not proper growth….
    Cashin had a great comment today – says end of next week will be the tell, everyone on the floor is suspicious of the action last few days, earnings are not viable right now, just short-term

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    alternate version of Mole's video
    http://screencast.com/t/TfKjFzMvep

  • annamall

    I know it's crazy, but that is what most people don't expect, so very plausible. They are going to push GOOG to 430 for opx.

  • ropey

    but POT aint going to 90 😉

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, Alpha. It looks like we are on the same page.

    Excuse my ignorance, but how does a megaphone pattern typically ends?

  • annamall

    That one I may be wrong on for sure 😉 but we will go to 950 I believe today and the MM”s will wipe out the stops on more bears (the bastards) :)

  • ropey

    i'm seeing quite a bearish divergence on the SPY on the hourly i will not give in yet lol

  • Osso

    bot HW 3.50…

  • 1981er

    Same thing the market has done since March – rally on bad news, which means less bad news is extremely bullish.

  • dollar

    How many more are left I wonder…

  • annamall

    You sure you're not a bull (stubborn)heheeheh J/K :-)

  • Ghostdog

    Myself, Macroeconics, Socioeconics, Technical is my model though I will play some small swings from time to time. Y'all here are the daily gunslingers, too hard for me, its not my game, I mostly only show up for what I believe to be the 1 to 2 year moves and am usually IN early and OUT early as well.

    My feeling is the reason technicals are breaking down is because of the fund guys… keep in mind these guys lost 30% to 50% and their clients are are yelling at them to make money or else. That is a quote from several people I know that run RIA's (as I do as well though I was on the short side from May 2007 til Feb 09) So the heard is forcing them to buy so you will see some scary buying once this thing gets a bid just like we have seen… and we should see something like we did in Oct of 2007 again.

    The heard is yelling to buy and soon will be yelling to sell but of course after they get their brains beat in.. again…

  • annamall

    More than you might think!

  • Autopsias

    Guys we shouldn't care about news and even if results are good or bad for a number of reasons.
    But if we talk about fundamentals cutting costs effectively in this environment is actually quite bullish! No one would be expecting companies to growth in this economic environment!

    I believe if you put yourselves in the minds of the fundamentals investor, those results are actually promising because indicate possible recovery based on lower cost and future economic recovery…

    But then again I only look to charts and nice green martian chicks… :)

    Anna, what about a green dress on your next picture?;)

  • annamall

    Looks like more consolidation for a push higher, just saying in case your'e bearish! :)

  • annamall

    :) you always make me smile Autopsias! There is obviously an absence of bears and what bears there are have no kohonnies!
    Who can blame them, they have had them cut off time and time again!

    Green it is for you little Martian! :-)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    indeed, I just added a few longs for a scalp

  • annamall

    done :-)

  • Coldwarvet

    Just picked up some juicy Dec 81 SPY puts!

    C'mon in bears, the water's fine!

    LOLOL!

    Will add more on the next pop.

    The thing about blow-off tops is “it all must come off everntually” Not sustainable.

  • C.C. Rider

    Needm some more agent orange?

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Who is your broker, but once the 3 days passes, then that short should be “yours”, and any arbitrary “cover” by the broker seems wrong.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    2 pm reverse of trend. might be temporary, keeping a close eye here

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yes this is the last leg up in a typical abcde pattern. can end like in wedges with an overthrow. Important to notice is that there is a larger megaphone as well, see the blue line marking the tops. some see this reaching 970 next week, maybe even higher if a dramatic short squeeze occurs. but really i'll be watching for the $ to bottom and increase my shorts as the $ progresses in v of 5. But i think this all ends within 7-10 days. and we role over. the question now is are we finishing P2 or 4 of P1?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • ropey

    i will not change from bear to bull until they clear 964 on the SPX – i really think this is going to be a mega bull fakeout – the right should is still in play ready for a sudden drop down to 925 or so – we are so far above the 5sma on the daily now and haven't touched it in 3days, if not today we nail it on monday

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • onorio

    IMO we`re in a wave 4, yesteday was (iv) and (v) of 3 and today we`re at 4. We should finish this 4th wave monday and go higher in a 5th between 950 and 957.

    I`ll go short next week.

  • ropey

    but not being funny – cutting costs to make eps versus growing is very different, you can't justify 30-50 PE multiples, like cashin says he's very suspicious of the action this week but will know for sure by end of next week which way the market wants to go…
    Don't worry i'll flip to long when i get the signal but it isn't there yet for me and still think they'll surprise the bulls next with a sudden dump even if the trend remains intact for the upside to 1000

  • Fujisan

    Interesting. I didn't notice it. Thanks for pointing this out.

    This definifely feels like 4 of P1 and I'm hoping that P2 takes us down to a breakout point and retest of the trend line.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Here ya go…she's not a Martian though.

    http://img408.imageshack.us/i/boomerslavegirl9p

  • Autopsias

    Hehehehehe Nice finding!

    I'm in love now, can't trade no more… 😉

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    ? you might be off one degree. if this is 4 of primary A or P1, then next is 5 down and the end of primary A or P1, and we then we rally for P2 or primary B (what most have thought this has been since march), then we sell off hard in P3 or primary C, it would prolonge everyone's view of things. Alternatively, the pullback from june 11 has been wave 4 of P2 or primary B, then the 5 waves up from there, of which we are in wave 4, would end primary B or P2 and we would then enter primary C or P3.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    correct me if I am wrong – still leaves you open to unlimited losses if underlying goes up (with much worse % odds)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    TAs are still working – the problem is traders' tendency to use much shorter timeframes than they have to. I, for one, don't even try to identify pattern on anything less then 3 days chart, better weekly. Shorter scales are easier to fade

  • Fujisan

    Sorry, my bad. I'm in a league of P2 in that sense. (right, you guys are talking a much bigger picture here).

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Why are you known as Mad Russian, are you mad or crazy, or both?

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    What I envision is that at the point of shorting, they assign particular shares to you, otherwise how would it be possible to keep track of and make sure that naked short selling was not taking place.

    On the other hand….shorting is essentially selling the shares — so i guess someone could buy them back at the going rate.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    For those of you interested in POT that should pin @ 90 by EOD. :)

  • Coldwarvet

    Oops thread reset.
    One more time then, watch the 50 week SMA on .spx. If it DOES close above, that's a sign this could continue. If it bounces off and retraces next week, ruh roh.

    http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?…

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Yes, Mole was always doubtful about the move down & advised staying out.

    If we'd followed that advice we'd have fewer badly singed bears here this week.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Done! :)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    shared. I actually bought a book off of the sleep inducer link

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, hat tip to Douala for sharing it.

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    i see dbl head everywhere.
    bear died yesterday for sure. will we see bull killing this afternoon?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    90.80

  • denali92

    The BEARS did go for it this morning and got SMACKED back – at 7:49am it really looked like we might have one of those great GAP down, reversal trend days down – BAC was falling, GE was a mess, Google was weak, but there were too many weak hand shorts at that point in time – really disappointing – still, we are trading similar to March 09 Opex with the Thursday high (though not the Thursday sell off) If we follow true to form from that day, we could close at the lows – the question will then be whether it is a one day wonder or the start of a reversal in to Tuesday or Wednesday. My bets are placed – I think we get down to 875 880 on Tuesday or Wednesday before exploding upwards AGAIN!

  • Coldwarvet

    I chose “The Black Swan” 😉

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Curious which one?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    any good?

  • Douala

    No that is ok… I am just glad you posted it. Yaaaaaaawn….Another slow day on Wall Street.

  • goldpackers

    WOW ! That would surprise the most which is what this market does best! I have Tuesday / Wednesday as big Gann days and the 29th/30th.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    few weeks ago I bought Way of the Turtle off the link. Really good book. I recently bought Trend Following.

  • goldpackers

    Have been calling for a high 7-17 to 7-22 and down into at least 7-29/30 and favor 8-4 to 8-13 before a big rally. Will See!! AAPL's earnings are next.

  • Coldwarvet

    I'll letcha know when I read it!

    I've been thinking of ordering this for awhle, so it made sense.

  • Douala

    This has to keep the “Yes We Can… Obama Man Can” up at night.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/withholdin

  • hankthedog

    Me: The guy in the clip that keeps repeating “My God, I've never seen anything like this.”

  • C.C. Rider

    Stealth move, looks like they ram it higher.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_tJnj2j5kI

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the bears will show up in mass next week as the market tops out, hopefully on my birthday, the 20th. then down she goes

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I really like Big Bear Barry. Whoa that is jaw dropping thanks for the link Douala! :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Ok thanks Cold! :) please do.

  • goldpackers

    Hear House has passed health care out of committee (stealth). And now to the Senate.

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective
  • denali92

    It may be too obvious, but for me, the following things point to it:

    -Incredibly overbought on an hourly basis
    -Weakness post Opex
    -In late May, we bounced off 880 – similar to how we have done now and then had a fade in to the following week before blasting off to new highs

    For my money, it is the trade that would mess the most people up – that is why I am backing it!

    ________________________________

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I think today may end up in a draw (doji) IBM pushing up tape and GE pulling it down alhough IBM has allot more weighing than GE does, so we may end slightly in green.

    I am long APA, (natural gas on fire)SNP (Chinese petro and chemical) out of Google, long SPY calls August 95.

    So far this is a yawner! zzzzzzzzzzzz I may go to gym early today and work out instead of looking at this tape.

  • dollar

    What if the bears don't show up, but the buyers also decide they're done?

  • ropey

    low volume = up right now -t hat's the way it's been since march

  • AudioTactics

    I've noticed that the market has consistently been changing direction after the weekend.

    After this week's amazing run-up, I'm looking for a direction change on Monday and I'm short. Clearly the bulls have run out of steam and we failed to press above yesterday's close although there's still plenty of time in the day so who know's how it will play out.

    Also, from a fundamental perspective, the economic data has been horrendous despite appearances (seasonal adjustments) and all of the positive spin in the MSM.

    I think the lipstick on this economic pig can only work for so long. When you look at the GE details, there are only losses across the board in most businesses. And, as I mentioned earlier, Ken Lewis said the 2nd half of their year will be more difficult than the first. The spin doctors expecting a solid recovery just do not understand the economics of this balance sheet recession.

  • ropey

    you cannot base any analysis from opex day on where the market goes next week, but if anything its a bullish continuation although personally i'm still expecting a drop to 925 re:above before the next move higher

  • goldpackers

    Expect drop to 910 +/- 5 spx even if bullish, beginning by Wednesday at the latest. Looks like one more daily high at best.

  • dollar

    BKX dropping, guess they're not buying the new asset valuations.

  • Douala

    Sis… Might want to show that to Rocco and tell him that is what happens when you stray away from home.

  • Douala

    Ooops sorry I was referring to the video. My boo boo.

  • Douala

    Looks like everyone here has picked up the loans for Mole's family back in the mother land. 😉

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/123

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    asked you yesterday but no answer… if u open the links in a new tab do u still get the love?

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    Looks a bit like an ascending triangle on the /NQ 5 min

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahah no problem 😀

  • ennuigo

    There's been a coup and the country doesn't even know it!

  • ropey

    POT flying..

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    POT? Look at MOS for the past 2 days…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    something is cooking with commercial real estate, SRS on current pullback failed to cross RSI 38 – the “bulls last stand”
    http://screencast.com/t/DiWaI62YgF
    (disclosure – I am heavy long SRS)

    P.S. If SRS will be able to close above 19.80 that'd be “the sign” :)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    got that move dead on, closed last call today (biting my elbows while looking at AGU – had to hold that one, more upside possible). Leery of dollar move up short term
    http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2009/07/aggs

  • moneyfarm

    IYR looks weak too. 60d/60m has neg divergences on RSI and MACD. I have Sept 33 puts.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    it is interesting how 12.45 acted as resistance on XLF for a long time – if it closes above it now (forming kind of symmetrical triangle now) – it might just move up
    http://screencast.com/t/dvCsSY2CkUd

  • Lordted

    Amazing Vid Mole… Just shows what “Bulls” can do….

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I'd rather be watching XHB than any DJ indexes – screw NYSE
    and XHB is right at critical point now – if it closes above 12.50 today – more upside to come
    http://screencast.com/t/PilsRPssXL
    daily RSI (the only AssCillator I use) is above 62 – strong
    on hourly is is slightly overbot, but on 10min – ready to move up again

  • moneyfarm

    HS forming on /ES 3m chart? Possible rt shoulder forming now with neckline at 932?

  • Osso

    CIT bouncing now..!!!
    Bot 0.699

  • Osso

    always follow this one David….13 is neckline….

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    don't get me started on H&S, please :)
    All this patterns available to every single retail trader through “pattern scans” all over the places are called to be faded in my trading book.
    only long term trendlines deserve respect now…still less than ever before..

  • Ghostdog

    DavidT,

    Nice call on the dollar I tend to agree with you there. I am getting the same bull signal to buy the S&P when it was hanging at the neckline that I am now getting on the dollar, barring a collapse of it into the close. If the dollar hangs around here it should catch a bid and the spooz should at least get a pullback.

    Note the divergences in Crude and other comms, namely Corn. They can do this for awhile but very very shortly someone is going to have to pay because this just cant go for much longer. It might be exactly her but we are very close to a shot at a turn. As with the Spooz call, if the low of the dollar today is exceeded, we can get a run.

  • Osso

    maybe later…MSFT reporting july 23, with AMZN and other big ones.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Whoa check it out CIT, I had put on a 1/2.5 l October call spread for a lotto ticket for .20 cents could make up to 1.25 for it!

  • Fujisan

    H/B Alpha. Dont' we have one more leg up before it drops? Although typically Monday after OPX is a big down day.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    H&S on the Euro, setting up for a breakdown next week
    http://screencast.com/t/y2X1V7nD3I

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    here comes 427.5 on goog – second time is a charm?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    SPY 3minute, I get the feeling I know how this is going to resolve….careful bears…..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Even AIG is green today lol

  • Douala

    TOS has called in AAPL shorts on this trader. I didn't know that was possible.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/market-pl

  • AudioTactics

    Actually the analysis has less to do with opex day and more to do with a trending week followed by a change in direction the following Monday…

  • Onorio

    IMO 1.3900 to end that H&S and (e) wave….than we will have real fireworks

  • Teich50

    Synthesize the short using options. Think put-call parity :)

    If the broker won't let you sell naked calls, use a bear call spread.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    EUR is in no men land here between 1.4116 and 1.4338.
    unless it will decisively break above 1.4338 it is more of a short in about 3 days than long – hope it will go slightly higher for better short entry – I'll be watching it next Wednesday.
    This damn market is too much fun lately

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    e wave then a burst higher?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    see reply above to v8muscle
    as for continues divergences in rising market with no sellers – it is done so easily by propping few sectors per day and the rest is just sitting flat with no convinced sellers – all those dimwits who shorted “neckline” are bout gone by now.
    So much for charts patters – even Bulkovsky admitted that most of patterns lately are as good as flipping the coin (not speaking of his “u had to buy 2 weeks ago indicator – thou I have a lot of respect for that guy – a lot of work went into his stat research )

  • trabuco

    AAP…..NOT AAPL….

  • Onorio

    yes, we`re in a triangle since june 3rd…probably a wave 4

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – what you mean??? I for one am glad – the last four days are about as much as I can take 😉

  • Douala

    LOL……….. Daaaaaaaaaaaa!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, after this long 3rd wave we should get a fourth to the downside – which might be Monday.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Nice.I bought at .80 ..Selling at .90 Hope it gets there

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Exactly. Education really distinguishes the pros from the amateurs.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    T.K. latest post pretty much is saying the same in his latest post – TA has broken down.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Interesting stuff, but it doesnt make sense to what I know. When you short a stock, my understanding was that your broker must actually borrow those shares, either right then, on the spot or within 3 days.

    So becoming “hard to borrow” should not affect any existing positions. This would appear fraudulent. They are trying to scare people out of the position perhaps?

    TOS was bought by Ameritrade–this was perceived as bad thing when it happened a few months back.

    I guess I have to really start getting familiar with my Interactive Brokers account which seems much more difficult to use.

  • Osso

    better raise stops and let it ride…it may have legs if its true GS/JPM are going to do something. Remember GS has $$$ billions in CDSs re CIT.
    If these 2 are to do something…its a tell…. the 2 biggest cro*ks , behind CIT…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Possible channel for you channel hounds.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/i-spy-n

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I just sent the following to Tom Sosnofff:

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/market-pl

    If you want to take the opportunity to clarify what's going on I would be happy to post your response verbatim to my blog (EvilSpeculator). The rats are not happy about these kind of games – especially after this week's vapor rally. To clarify – we are not blaming ThinkOrSwim – we would like to know who notified you about a potential shortage of shares in AAP.

    Cheers,

    Mole

    UPDATE – I sent him this now:

    In retrospect that was a dumb question as it's clear from the article that it was Penson who notified you guys. Do you have any further input you would like to share on why this is happening?

    Cheers,

    Mole

  • Fujisan

    Oh, I thought that we are getting a forth wave right now.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Shit to late i got out at .90…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What he means is to sell a call and buy a put – that's a synthetic short position. The advantage is that you are greek-neutral just like when long/short stock.

  • Teich50

    No, the broker lets you short only when they have shares available (i.e., someone else longing the shares). I have had my broker (OPXS) forced-cover my AZO shorts before :(

    I think they are trying to prevent naked shorting of shares.

  • Osso

    its more Penson than TOS…..several stocks are in the same advise…w/Penson

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    As I had quite a larger amount of short positions the past few weeks I probably had 10 stocks that had forced covering in the past 2 weeks. They let me short it first and if they cannot get shares they cover me before 10:00AM (after 3 days usually).

  • Teich50

    On the other hand, if shares are really hard to borrow everywhere, put-call parity does not hold, since the Black-Scholes equation, using a risk-neutral valuation model, assumes free hedging of the underlying (long or short).

    It happened last Fall when we were not allowed to short the financials. Put differently, the put writers need to ask for more if they cannot short the underlying to hedge.

  • gusrock1414

    Mole, that video rocked. I really do not care how much money Goldman and Morgan can make trading pieces of paper back and forth or raising equity to bail out their failing brethren. The companies that make and sell stuff are not making much headway. The revenue numbers are horrible. Mattel sales were down 19%. General Electric saw a 17% decline. Callaway Gold lowered its sales expectations and now thinks sales for the year will drop 15 to 19%. Cost cutting means reduced spending and layoffs and I have a hard time putting a positive spin on that.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    ut oh sistah!!! ROTFLMAO heheheh

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    unashamedly stole this chart, but it's very compelling. appears we have nearly completed a megaphone topping pattern. wave four is on now, and who know what 5 will do anything from truncate to 965 or so, kind of depends on the dollar finishing its waves iv and v down. but i expect this to be over by mid to end of next week. Also, i'd expect a throwover at the top, so 960 or so would be a nice target

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    They call me in on something 2 days ago! I couldn't believe it! WTF

  • dollar

    So are you guys saying we have to go back to….fundamentals?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    BTW – that is what T.K. banned me for:

    T.K. “Trendline violated…”

    DDT “'Trendline schmendline violated … violate my … with all due respect” :)
    If you see how often people change at SOH disqus – my statement that people losing money listening to him is not that far fetched.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    stop cursing!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    since I am known as Mad Russian – I might go short INTC on failure to close the day above 18.64

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Here comes the squeeze! If we go above yesterdays highs we could see 950 today. yesterday high was 943. 96

  • ropey

    seriously this is taking the piss – i guess earnings don't matter anymore then – all of the earnings bar one was on cutting costs, not proper growth….
    Cashin had a great comment today – says end of next week will be the tell, everyone on the floor is suspicious of the action last few days, earnings are not viable right now, just short-term

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    alternate version of Mole's video
    http://screencast.com/t/TfKjFzMvep

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I know it's crazy, but that is what most people don't expect, so very plausible. They are going to push GOOG to 430 for opx.

  • ropey

    but POT aint going to 90 😉

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, Alpha. It looks like we are on the same page.

    Excuse my ignorance, but how does a megaphone pattern typically ends? It looks like the price movement is still expanding.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    That one I may be wrong on for sure 😉 but we will go to 950 I believe today and the MM”s will wipe out the stops on more bears (the bastards) :)

  • ropey

    i'm seeing quite a bearish divergence on the SPY on the hourly i will not give in yet lol

  • Osso

    bot HW 3.50…

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    Same thing the market has done since March – rally on bad news, which means less bad news is extremely bullish.

  • dollar

    How many more are left I wonder…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    You sure you're not a bull (stubborn)heheeheh J/K :-)

  • Ghostdog

    Myself, Macroeconics, Socioeconics, Technical is my model though I will play some small swings from time to time. Y'all here are the daily gunslingers, too hard for me, its not my game, I mostly only show up for what I believe to be the 1 to 2 year moves and am usually IN early and OUT early as well.

    My feeling is the reason technicals are breaking down is because of the fund guys… keep in mind these guys lost 30% to 50% and their clients are are yelling at them to make money or else. That is a quote from several people I know that run RIA's (as I do as well though I was on the short side from May 2007 til Feb 09) So the heard is forcing them to buy so you will see some scary buying once this thing gets a bid just like we have seen… and we should see something like we did in Oct of 2007 again.

    The heard is yelling to buy and much later will be yelling to sell but of course after they get their brains beat in.. again… If we get above 13K DOW, then IM wrong…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    More than you might think!

  • Autopsias

    Guys we shouldn't care about news and even if results are good or bad for a number of reasons.
    But if we talk about fundamentals cutting costs effectively in this environment is actually quite bullish! No one would be expecting companies to growth in this economic environment!

    I believe if you put yourselves in the minds of the fundamentals investor, those results are actually promising because indicate possible recovery based on lower cost and future economic recovery…

    But then again I only look to charts and nice green martian chicks… :)

    Anna, what about a green dress on your next picture?;)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Looks like more consolidation for a push higher, just saying in case your'e bearish! :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    :) you always make me smile Autopsias! There is obviously an absence of bears and what bears there are have no kohonnies!
    Who can blame them, they have had them cut off time and time again!

    Green it is for you little Martian! :-)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    indeed, I just added a few longs for a scalp

  • Coldwarvet

    Just picked up some juicy Dec 81 SPY puts!

    C'mon in bears, the water's fine!

    LOLOL!

    Will add more on the next pop.

    The thing about blow-off tops is “it all must come off everntually” Not sustainable.

  • C.C. Rider

    Needm some more agent orange?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Who is your broker, but once the 3 days passes, then that short should be “yours”, and any arbitrary “cover” by the broker seems wrong.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    2 pm reverse of trend. might be temporary, keeping a close eye here

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yes this is the last leg up in a typical abcde pattern. can end like in wedges with an overthrow. Important to notice is that there is a larger megaphone as well, see the blue line marking the tops. some see this reaching 970 next week, maybe even higher if a dramatic short squeeze occurs. but really i'll be watching for the $ to bottom and increase my shorts as the $ progresses in v of 5. But i think this all ends within 7-10 days. and we role over. the question now is are we finishing P2 or 4 of P1?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • ropey

    i will not change from bear to bull until they clear 964 on the SPX – i really think this is going to be a mega bull fakeout – the right should is still in play ready for a sudden drop down to 925 or so – we are so far above the 5sma on the daily now and haven't touched it in 3days, if not today we nail it on monday

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Onorio

    IMO we`re in a wave 4, yesteday was (iv) and (v) of 3 and today we`re at 4. We should finish this 4th wave monday and go higher in a 5th between 950 and 957.

    I`ll go short next week.

  • ropey

    but not being funny – cutting costs to make eps versus growing is very different, you can't justify 30-50 PE multiples, like cashin says he's very suspicious of the action this week but will know for sure by end of next week which way the market wants to go…
    Don't worry i'll flip to long when i get the signal but it isn't there yet for me and still think they'll surprise the bulls next with a sudden dump even if the trend remains intact for the upside to 1000

  • Fujisan

    Interesting. I didn't notice it. Thanks for pointing this out.

    This definifely feels like 4 of P1 and I'm hoping that P2 takes us down to a breakout point and retest of the trend line.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Here ya go…she's not a Martian though.

    http://img408.imageshack.us/i/boomerslavegirl9p

  • Autopsias

    Hehehehehe Nice finding!

    I'm in love now, can't trade no more… 😉

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    ? you might be off one degree. if this is 4 of primary A or P1, then next is 5 down and the end of primary A or P1, and we then we rally for P2 or primary B (what most have thought this has been since march), then we sell off hard in P3 or primary C, it would prolonge everyone's view of things. Alternatively, the pullback from june 11 has been wave 4 of P2 or primary B, then the 5 waves up from there, of which we are in wave 4, would end primary B or P2 and we would then enter primary C or P3.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    correct me if I am wrong – still leaves you open to unlimited losses if underlying goes up (with much worse % odds)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    TAs are still working – the problem is traders' tendency to use much shorter timeframes than they have to. I, for one, don't even try to identify pattern on anything less then 3 days chart, better weekly. Shorter scales are easier to fade

  • Fujisan

    Sorry, my bad. I'm in a league of P2 in that sense. (right, you guys are talking a much bigger picture here).

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Why are you known as Mad Russian, are you mad or crazy, or both?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    What I envision is that at the point of shorting, they assign particular shares to you, otherwise how would it be possible to keep track of and make sure that naked short selling was not taking place.

    On the other hand….shorting is essentially selling the shares — so i guess someone could buy them back at the going rate.