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Casual Friday
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Casual Friday

by The MoleNovember 10, 2017

It’s been a pretty event filled and exhausting week for me which I’m more than ready to kick up my feet and call it casual Friday. But not so fast – equities once again are on the rebound after yet another shake out dip lower, and that opens up a potential entry opportunity. Yes, I know you’re ready to call it a week yourself but let’s at least take a peek, shall we?

2017-11-9_zero

The Zero actually signaled pretty bearish yesterday but then it painted a super juicy bullish divergence followed by a late session ramp higher (click on this link if you want to know how to trade those). Overnight we corrected a little lower but since I like the formation here I’m prepared to throw a few basis points at a Friday lottery ticket:

2017-11-10_spoos_entry

And there you have it. Long here with a stop below yesterday’s spike low. If you take a look at the daily panel (on the right) then you’ll note that the dip lower actually touched the 25-day SMA. Doesn’t mean a bounce is baked in of course but at least it’s got decent odds.

Caveat: It’s very late in this rally and if we bounce here then we better be nimble. I may even close out before the bell if we don’t see movement (to the upside!) after about mid day. In case you’re wondering – yes, it’s permissible to be short here and that may actually turn out to be the proper direction. It’s just not a deal I can take right now as the daily trend has not yet been broken.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    thanks Mole….Enjoy your casual Friday

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ll try very hard :-)

  • Ronebadger

    I look forward every day to your post…also wait for your announcement of any travel plans…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – BTC futures are coming!!

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/bitcoin-futures.html

  • ridingwaves

    I think Kim (poster) shorted this the other day near the top is banking coin literally…

  • ridingwaves

    been a good morning so far
    OMER up 31%
    ridingwaves Gold_Gerb 10 days ago
    nope, sitting in OMER, EXAS

  • ridingwaves

    took 1/2 off on OMER at 19

  • ridingwaves

    jumped into ANY at 2.69 for scalp S 2.59

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehe

  • Brishort

    Exactly on inflection points on all my short term trendlines indicators for SPX & NDX

    However the velocity of NDX seems to be to the downside. right now as of 10h40 EST.
    VIX & VXN intraday behavior currently supportive of weakness scenario.

    Finger on the trigger for a full line BUTT short on SPX & NDX (Back-up the truck). All my short term indicators are claiming this is a reasonable tradeable down move on following trigger: –> sell-stop entry @ NDX 6277 (NQ 6283), the aim is a good for a short ride down into the close with a stop slightly above today’s open.

    If the market is to build any serious weakness next week, it has to first finish for a negative weekly candle on NDX, and that will need downside work today, hence the bearish play on these odds.

  • ridingwaves

    red on Friday usually ends up carrying thru to Monday…profit takers might wake up over the weekend- though biotech indexes might have bottomed out….

  • ridingwaves
  • Brishort

    For a bit more of visual insight on the current weekly behavior from an international equities point of view:

    Since many weeks, first time correlation of rejection of new high (candlestick bearish engulfing on a few markets… note: I don’t like candlestick for trading, but accepts its value as a dialect to translate diagnostic on the state of market to work trading positions from).

    Still very early but always important to have an idea of the long term to see & assess the “path of least resistance” from which any position has to assessed for stop purposes. (i.e. if a position is not making money, should the stop be tight or wider, the latter being only valid if in the direction of the trend…. typically better derived from a weekly view.) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/119d5453cde67c2c685d6eee7379de2acbec78c41ed8cc74a9ea1357026f450a.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, from the looks of it 11-7-17 was a important event supported by the rate scene. I’d take in some more indexes for the more holistic picture, but there’s no doubt about the importance of this particular zone. My R2000 for example is now at near perfect inflection.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Brishort

    So I guess we have our trigger points mapped out! I will have to leave for the week-end. Thanks for your replies! Nice week-end to all :-)

  • ridingwaves

    SQ force is strong, looks to run higher…

  • Mark Shinnick

    It might be really nice to see a BTFD blowoff rip to really set the hook into that crowd good.

  • ridingwaves

    biotech starting to show some positive money flow now

  • ridingwaves

    gold abused today like an old vet waiting for a dr appointment from the VA

    Thanks to all the Veterans out there! Happy Veterans day to you all..

  • Julie

    TAL and INTC shorts YES ! According to plan and charts previously shown. Everyone Have A Great Weekend !
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I’m both an old vet and I’m getting abused by Gold today. :)

    I haven’t been stopped out yet but it doesn’t look good right now. Gold has been sucking for about 3 weeks now. I’m trying to hook on to a run and I don’t give a shit which direction. Right now I’m still holding long but just barely.

  • Julie

    Happy Veteran’s Day BobbyLow. Following GDX as it went up into an upper down trend line and today falling below it.s daily 5 ema and Ichi Cloud conversion line (8)Just Saying
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    From a 3x miners POV it hit and is bouncing off a pretty good inflection area and i’m long because it usually doesn’t fall out of bed here…for at least a little while.

  • Julie

    Hi Mark GDX The 5 – 21 – 55 and 233 exp mov averages are in a bearish alignment. Personally I would be analyzing the short side until the 21 ema goes above the 55 ema then long a pullback. The chart pattern GDX is a falling wedge with basically no positive divergences on the daily chart yet
    JULIE

  • Julie

    A falling wedge from 1st week of September
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    long looks best my view, though it could be choppy, some interesting stuff happening on weekly…a huge move on gold seems to be close…the right side would be best trade

  • ridingwaves

    long looks good, though it could be pushed down to 1240 area because of a gentlemen’s bet or something…

  • Julie

    RW GLD today a failed (1) MACD 5,34,5 centerline test (2) 55 ema failure and falling below it’s daily 5 ema The 5 – 21 and 55 emas are in a bearish alignment with RSI failing at 50
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…this entry was a no-brainer but holding the position overnight is not.

  • Julie

    INTC Going to watch at the 13 ema. Since 1st week of September all pullbacks have been held at the 13 ema. A close below the 13 ema would be a change of character. 13 ema approx. 45
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GG Time Check 1;42 Mountain Time. Everyone Have A great Weekend ! Happy Veterans Day to all Vets … A great sacrifice you made !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You too Julie – thanks for holding the fort today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Great Job Julie.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    hard to break this multi-year habit.
    I shall try again next week & step away for real.

    HYG what a week.
    Clear as mud in hindsight. Sometimes you just have to gut-it-out.
    Cheers!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/61a0d34fd6553cacb67311fcb1d6932e213d3bc5310af34e284105ddc5ea20ca.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes..its all fantastic….3 generations of credit bulls is a awful lot of conditioning.