I can’t believe it’s Friday already, this year seems to be passing by me like a flash and there never seem to be enough hours in the day. Burning the candle on both ends doesn’t really help matters either as it only leads to less productivity afterward. Perhaps if all that science fiction one day turns into science fact and we get to live another 50 or 100 years then I may just be able to complete all those projects and various studies I constantly seem to be immersed in. But at least years of hard work continues to pay off today. Let’s review where we are:
Considering that equities are still trading a bagel throw away from all time highs it was fascinating to observe a 28% rise in implied volatility over the past week. Now I concede that current levels are probably more in line with where the VIX should be given that we’re heading into a seasonally bearish market period of the year. August has acquired a bit of notoriety over the years due to a handful of negative outliers, however on average it is September and not August that you should be worried about (see Tuesday’s post on the subject).
It’s no big secret that summer is my least favorite season here at the lair, as many of our regulars are on vacation and equities usually settle into a sideways volatile trading range. Central banks are also on their summer break and that means the primary market driver of the past decade remains absent until the leaves (and sometimes stock markets) are beginning to drop. So in terms of seasonality we are not exactly in the most exciting time of the year, which by the way is completely in line with historical precedence:
Alright, let’s talk about what exactly happened yesterday when equities effectively fell off the plate mid session after which the plunge protection quickly stepped to push the tape back into politically correct levels. Of course I’m kidding: If you’re looking for conspiracy theories, innuendo, or rumors then please move along. We only concern ourselves with technical evidence and bad humor here at Evil Speculator.