Equities futures are rolling into their March contracts today which is in part why we saw a distinct increase in realized volatility over the past week or two. Not being a huge fan of rainy winters in the Mediterranean I for one can’t wait for expiration day which also happens to be my spring vacation season. Then again I shouldn’t complain about the weather judging by what some of my trading buddies in Chicago are going through right now. Scraping ice from your windshield is one thing, scraping it off your contact lenses is another.
I probably should be easing up on my meds as I have started seeing short opportunities and you all know how that usually ends up. Except of course when Bitcoin once again goes stratospheric and then instantly crashes as it did on Wednesday literally an hour after I posted about that very scenario. Clairvoyance you wonder? I very much doubt it as I never win anything. But I have developed a pretty keen sense of human nature, which fortunately is a lot more reliable than the financial markets. When in doubt during a buying frenzy always bet on the woodshed.
‘May you live in interesting times’ is an apocryphal expression often incorrectly attributed to being an ancient Chinese curse. Whoever actually coined it we will probably never know, but it’s clear to me that he or she was probably of advanced age and, having experienced a crisis or two, understood quite well the potential disruptive effects of large scale events.
The third quarter is officially on the books and that means we are now finally entering the most profitable trading period of the year, at least statistically speaking. As with everything in life your mileage may vary. Since it’s the beginning of a new month this we should once again take step back and look at the characteristics of the ongoing market phase in terms of volatility, momentum, as well as market breadth.