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October 17, 2016

Well Positioned But Skeptical

Last week’s decision to hold through a trading bot driven low participation reversal higher appears to have been a good one as of right now. At least the campaign managed to survive the weekend and that’s no small feat in this volatile market environment, which incidentally is why I am choosing my words very carefully. The ides of October often bring us stormy weather as well as volatile markets. Given ongoing fears of a large scale sell-off another momo update seemed appropriate.

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August 3, 2016

Dipping My Toe In

I was rather stunned to see quite a bit of bearish talk again during yesterday’s session. Someone even started wave counting down insisting on large scale resolution lower with the current sell off only representing the first leg. Well, as usual I hate to be the wet blanket at the party but I can’t help but ask: How often have we been there in the past eight years?

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July 25, 2016

Mid Summer Momo Update

It is hot and it is humid over here in Valencia. You want to know how hot? The other day a poodle’s tail caught fire just waiting in the sun. The more frantically he was wiggling his tail the brighter it burned. Fortunately his master was nearby and was sweating so much (overweight Brit) that he was able to put the fire out with his bare hands. True story! Well, maybe not – but that’s definitely how it feels over here. Fortunately the evil lair is equipped with an industrial strength A/C unit which will continuously run on its polar bear setting until late August. If the power goes down I’m dead meat as I have a high tolerance for heat but a very low one for [...]

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October 10, 2014

Major Technical Damage

Wednesday near the close of the U.S. session I really thought the ole’ Yeller had us all by the balls. If there has ever been an opportunity to squeeze the bears into oblivion then this had to be it. In yesterday’s musings Scott confirmed my notion that the series of lower lows and lower highs was still intact (barely) and that the bearish case was on the edge of extinction but still had a small chance of resuming. The odds were pretty minuscule IMO and early yesterday I kept checking the tape waiting for the invariable second shoe to drop.

But then suddenly something very curious happened:

In the last 20 minutes, someone has placed/canceled a 666 contract [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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