A funny thing happened this morning over at the ECB this morning. Mario Draghi must have finally found a moment to actually look at a EUR/USD chart as the ECB suddenly seems concerned about the implications of a 11% hike over the course of the past six months. Which to me stands in rather stark contrast with several constitutional trains wreck that are currently unfolding all across in Europe and most pressingly the one right now here in Spain. Not exactly bullish when Moody’s and other rating agencies are issuing recurring warnings about Spanish and Catalonian credit ratings.
Something doesn’t add up here. We got our VIX Buy Signal confirmation and that is short to medium term bullish for equities (again, the buy refers to the latter, not the former). However I’m smelling a potential rat as the Dollar finally looks like it may be ready to squeeze the heck out of the shorts. And usually that is not exactly bullish for equities, is it now? Let’s look at some key markets and then decide the best course of action:
Alright, so there’s the lower close on the VIX which, per the rules discussed yesterday, officially puts a confirmed VIX Buy Signal on the map. No, there won’t be a parade, sorry. First up it’s too [...]
A lot of people are on vacation and traders are of course no exception, evidenced by a general lack of participation across equities over the past few weeks. Here in Spain the month of August is pretty much synonymous with going on holidays. Almost everyone closes up shop (doctors included!) and takes off to spend the next few weeks with their family in some mysterious ‘pueblo’. It doesn’t matter if you’re from Madrid or Barcelona, the part of the city you grew up in is your ‘pueblo’ and that’s where you’ll pass your vacation. Unless you’re married of course, in that case you are condemned to spend the entire month with your [...]
The ECB is scheduled to meet on Thursday, however it’s only an internal meeting and no new economic staff projections (ESPs) are expected. Bond investors in particular are looking for Draghi’s press conference for clues as to what interest rate policy to expect for the third and fourth quarters of this year. But given that the EUR/USD is now heading toward 1.15 I have an inkling that Mr. Draghi will choose his words very cautiously as he is now walking a precarious economic tightrope.