Something doesn’t add up here. We got our VIX Buy Signal confirmation and that is short to medium term bullish for equities (again, the buy refers to the latter, not the former). However I’m smelling a potential rat as the Dollar finally looks like it may be ready to squeeze the heck out of the shorts. And usually that is not exactly bullish for equities, is it now? Let’s look at some key markets and then decide the best course of action:
Alright, so there’s the lower close on the VIX which, per the rules discussed yesterday, officially puts a confirmed VIX Buy Signal on the map. No, there won’t be a parade, sorry. First up it’s too [...]
A lot of people are on vacation and traders are of course no exception, evidenced by a general lack of participation across equities over the past few weeks. Here in Spain the month of August is pretty much synonymous with going on holidays. Almost everyone closes up shop (doctors included!) and takes off to spend the next few weeks with their family in some mysterious ‘pueblo’. It doesn’t matter if you’re from Madrid or Barcelona, the part of the city you grew up in is your ‘pueblo’ and that’s where you’ll pass your vacation. Unless you’re married of course, in that case you are condemned to spend the entire month with your [...]
The ECB is scheduled to meet on Thursday, however it’s only an internal meeting and no new economic staff projections (ESPs) are expected. Bond investors in particular are looking for Draghi’s press conference for clues as to what interest rate policy to expect for the third and fourth quarters of this year. But given that the EUR/USD is now heading toward 1.15 I have an inkling that Mr. Draghi will choose his words very cautiously as he is now walking a precarious economic tightrope.
For the past quarter equities in particular have entered a market phase eerily reminiscent of the mind numbing churn we had to endure for most of 2016. Meaning a lack of direction, high intra-day volatility, and sudden directional spurts which are either news driven or the result of FOMC or ECB deliberations. Obviously the supposed phasing out of quantitive easing already has and will increasingly affect the effervescence of what we all most likely will remember as a one-in-a-generation bull run.