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December 21, 2017

Euro At The Gate

Christmas is only days away and I’m sure you have more urgent things to attend than to stare at charts or talk about them. But for the die-hards amongst you and the 5 Billion non-Christians frequenting this blog I thought I’d throw up a few forex charts, some of which appear to be ripe for the plucking today or tomorrow.

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November 28, 2017

Long Term Perspectives

Not surprisingly we are now seeing a bit of post Thanksgiving profit taking on both the equity and currency side. Had I not been stopped out on Friday already I most definitely would have been yesterday. And now the trails of both of my forex campaigns also received a visit so I’m almost all in cash. Holiday weeks are great periods for break-out formations due to less liquidity allowing institutional traders to leverage their market moving capabilities and pin the tape to their liking.

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October 5, 2017

Nothing To See Here

A funny thing happened this morning over at the ECB this morning. Mario Draghi must have finally found a moment to actually look at a EUR/USD chart as the ECB suddenly seems concerned about the implications of a 11% hike over the course of the past six months. Which to me stands in rather stark contrast with several constitutional trains wreck that are currently unfolding all across in Europe and most pressingly the one right now here in Spain. Not exactly bullish when Moody’s and other rating agencies are issuing recurring warnings about Spanish and Catalonian credit ratings.

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August 15, 2017

Skeptical

Something doesn’t add up here. We got our VIX Buy Signal confirmation and that is short to medium term bullish for equities (again, the buy refers to the latter, not the former). However I’m smelling a potential rat as the Dollar finally looks like it may be ready to squeeze the heck out of the shorts. And usually that is not exactly bullish for equities, is it now? Let’s look at some key markets and then decide the best course of action:

Alright, so there’s the lower close on the VIX which, per the rules discussed yesterday, officially puts a confirmed VIX Buy Signal on the map. No, there won’t be a parade, sorry. First up it’s too [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Confirmation BiasConfirmation Bias
    When equities turns volatile each added gyration serves to stir the collective emotional cesspool of market participants. An unfortunate cognitive bias we as human beings all share is … more
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