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May 25, 2016

Second Quarter Long Term Update

My favorite quarter of the year is slowly drawing to a close, with Memorial Day in the U.S. demarking the beginning of the long awaited vacation season. It’s been a long winter and we haven’t really seen much of a spring over here in the Mediterranean to be honest. The past three months brought us only a few warm days as the general theme was dominated by rainy weather, cold spells, and even a patch of frost in late April that damaged a good number of vine crops up North in Southern France.

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February 12, 2016

What Goes Straight Up

What goes [straight] up must eventually go down. However when exactly a symbol which has turned exponential runs out of fuel is the more important question. Once emotions reign high all bets are off – or in this case all bids are on. You may recall that I was pointing at gold the other day and suggesting that we may see another wild push to the upside.

Which is exactly what we got and I’m pretty glad I got out of my short position at break/even. We are now seeing an obligatory pullback but medium term this thing may have legs.

Just FYI – the P&F claims that we met the bullish price objective. However I wouldn’t really think [...]

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February 8, 2016

The Usual Suspects

Over the past few months a potent emotional cocktail of fear and confusion has been seeping into the consciousness of market participants. It’s not just that equities are steadily heading lower whilst producing more and more bearish context above to be overcome sometime in the future. What’s worse is that there appear to be very few places remaining to sit out the storm. The exception of course being the two usual suspects – bonds and gold.

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December 15, 2015

Bonds On The Burner

Bonds are getting burned this morning, more than a full session ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC madness. And I’m not talking junk bonds either – as I’m typing this ZF, ZN, and the ZB are all on a tear to the downside.

Forgive me for being a bit skeptical here but either someone knows something I don’t (very much possible) or fear and panic are starting to kick in early. Either way this is excellent turf for bottom feeding market rodents like yours truly – when there’s blood in the streets and all. That said, I’m definitely waiting for the short term panel to paint a convincing price pattern as I’m not in the habit of [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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