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November 15, 2017

Rough Times For Bucky

It’s time to talk about Forex as the temporary Dollar rally has effectively ended and is now launching significant advances in various cross pairs. You may recall I have been anticipating this very scenario since Monday after seeing a potential floor pattern on the EUR/USD in particular [1][2]. Unfortunately however the one pertinent horse I had in play appears to be the lame laggard of the bunch, which means I’ll have to find myself a sturdy banana tree later this afternoon.

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November 13, 2017

Running In Circles

The relentless advance in equities over the past few weeks/months may have distracted us from the fact that several key markets have continued to run in circles. Attempting to take break-out entries in highly volatile sideways conditions can quickly turn into a sequence of losses. Of course the realization of this is usually only clear in hindsight as regime change is difficult to anticipate.

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November 9, 2017

(Not So) Boring Stats Thursday

I just love statistics, which I in part attribute to my anal retentive Teutonic background. I’m not even that good in math but show me any graph and it’s like intellectual p0rn to me – I can’t resist. After building our most handy Evil Speculator statistics monger I spent hours looking through literally hundreds of charts. The most salient of course being the Spiders (SPY) as it gives us a pretty good historical perspective on seasonal trends on equities as a whole. So let’s see where we heading, at least statistically speaking:

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October 17, 2017

A Few Quick Entries

I spent a bit of time this morning extending my weekly top/bottom stock parser to also include NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq symbols, thus increasing the number of candidates considerably (from a bit over 500 to several thousand). This will most likely help us even out the long/short ratios during historically bullish or bearish weeks. Pulling all that data from Yahoo Finance proved to be a bit of a challenge as they’re quick to cut you off after a few hundred requests. So I implemented a ‘top up’ function which downloads only the most recent data each week instead of getting the entire historical data every time.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    When equities turns volatile each added gyration serves to stir the collective emotional cesspool of market participants. An unfortunate cognitive bias we as human beings all share is … more
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