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July 15, 2016

Do Nothing

Due to recent developments here is what I should add to our current NQ campaign: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Yes I know, your fingers are itching and it is oh so tempting to mock with a running winner. Why not move that stop up just a little or take a bit more off the table? But I strongly encourage you to simply let her run until she either arrives at her target or touches her trailing stop. Per. The. Rules. One of the toughest lessons to learn for some traders is to simply sit on your hands and let your winners run.

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February 2, 2016

Too Many Damn Setups

I’m having way too much fun this morning, which accounts for my somewhat belated post. There literally seem to be juicy setups crawling out of the woodwork and I just kept adding new ones while reducing exposure on others in order to reduce correlation risk. So without further ado let’s jump right in:

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August 31, 2015

Time To Pay Attention (Again)

Most market participants suffer from chronic recency bias in that they weigh recent data or experience more than earlier data or experience. In particular retail traders more often than not expect more of the same, which actually is correct most of the time. Except for when it matters the most. Come again?

If you have come here for a while then you have seen me use the word ‘inflection point’ on various occasions. I use that term rather deliberately as it succinctly expresses a moment in time in which an equilibrium between potential outcomes can be shifted rapidly by comparatively small movements in price. Say again?

Back in my wave wanking days [...]

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July 21, 2015

I’m Your Huckleberry

I’m sensing a possible inflection point across various market verticals this morning. Now if you ask me what I mean by ‘sensing’ and if I have completely lost my mind then I would respond with ‘divergences and assorted correlated price action’ to the former and ‘affirmative’ to the latter. Let’s just say that I’ll be bull’s huckleberry up here – but only until 2124.25 – my boldness comes with price limits.

All jokes aside – I’m a bit pressed for time this morning so let me walk you through my nefarious plan. Basically equities seem to be slowing down and are clearly diverging. The YM [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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