In the end it’s all about the money and more specifically what happens on the currency side. Although Forex trading has effectively been turned into a small sideshow in the United States, due to stringent Dodd Frank regulation that mainly affected retail traders, it would be a mistake to not pay attention to what’s happening on the currency side. And what I’m seeing across the board, on a long term basis, is rather disconcerting.
Due to recent developments here is what I should add to our current NQ campaign: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Yes I know, your fingers are itching and it is oh so tempting to mock with a running winner. Why not move that stop up just a little or take a bit more off the table? But I strongly encourage you to simply let her run until she either arrives at her target or touches her trailing stop. Per. The. Rules. One of the toughest lessons to learn for some traders is to simply sit on your hands and let your winners run.
I’m having way too much fun this morning, which accounts for my somewhat belated post. There literally seem to be juicy setups crawling out of the woodwork and I just kept adding new ones while reducing exposure on others in order to reduce correlation risk. So without further ado let’s jump right in:
Most market participants suffer from chronic recency bias in that they weigh recent data or experience more than earlier data or experience. In particular retail traders more often than not expect more of the same, which actually is correct most of the time. Except for when it matters the most. Come again?
If you have come here for a while then you have seen me use the word ‘inflection point’ on various occasions. I use that term rather deliberately as it succinctly expresses a moment in time in which an equilibrium between potential outcomes can be shifted rapidly by comparatively small movements in price. Say again?
Back in my wave wanking days [...]