Wicked Wednesday

It’s all smiles down here at the evil lair as Scalpius is starting to get its groove on and managed to bank over 20R in the past two sessions. I’m still fiddling with the trailing logic but at this point it is outperforming what I’m seeing in historical tape. Reason being is that you can never properly simulate the spread, the offers, the available volume – it has to be done live.  Proper trailing is as much an art as it is science as it needs to consider the momentum of the price action and weigh existing against potential future gains. Yes, you can come up with MFE stats but they can be deceptive because your strategy may not be banking coin consistently – some thrive in trending tape, others due to mean reversion. So you want to optimize it for the type of tape it’s built to exploit. In the case of Scalpius that’s ST trending tape.

2015-08-12_scalpius

Picking a range inside that coveted sweet spot has been my recent endeavor and I have resorted to some rather creative approaches, which are truly pushing the envelope but seem to be paying off. The stats above show you the recent live track record which actually missed a few 4R winners (one today) as I’m still fiddling with my b/a spread filters. Definitely work in progress but it’s getting there and clearly I’m on the right track.

2015-08-12_natgas_update

Quick update on natgas – this one looks like it’s good to go. I’ve moved my stop up to the break/even spot now and until this thing picks a direction there’s nothing to do. Natgas has been in this sideways hell for months now, which is rather uncharacteristic. When it finally takes off one of these days there will be hell to pay. They call it the widow maker for a reason.

2015-08-12_ZF_briefing

Alright, we have a ton of setups today, ladies and leeches! Let’s start with the bonds, here’s the five year contract which I’m long with a stop below 110’3. This one could turn into a trending candidate but it’s still a bit early to judge.

2015-08-12_ZN_briefing

Ten year futures – also long here with a stop below 128.

2015-08-12_ZB_briefing

And the thirty year – you get the idea. I have split my R between those three in case you wonder – I’m not that bold and neither should you be.

Quite a bit more below the fold – meet me in the lair:


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By the way the Evil Lair’s genetic science division managed to splice together gene samples of Ragnar Lothbrock plus some essence of Godsmack and Disturbed. Here’s what came out the test tube:

Now I admit – nothing really new here BUT for some reason it’s absolutely brilliant. Can’t stop listening to it. It’s a new band so these guys need some promotion. If you like it send it to everyone you know. And let’s not forget Disturbed is releasing a new album in a few days. Maybe there’s hope for rock & roll in this decade just yet.

Cheers,

Dr. Seuss’ Worst Nightmare

I’m not one to brag but when it comes to enduring extended periods of crappy tape the market Mole has grown to be rather resilient over the years. But the spasmodic gyrations we had to endure of the past six months or so has put things on whole new level. I think the last time I saw random swings even remotely resembling this mess was in 2010 and that was not a happy trading year for many. Even when I back test various strategies that year is usually one that ends up on the flat or negative side.

2015-06-03_spoos_update2

I’ve watched several of you guys trying to make sense of this woodchipper and I implore you to just let it go. There is simply too much noise and confusion out there –  it’s our inherent human nature which insists on attempting to see patterns where there are none. If you draw enough lines and squiggly things you will convince yourself that you’ll see a distinct formation. I happen to be long since ES 2113 which I grabbed on a dip lower this morning – my stop still stands below 2007. But frankly I don’t really care – as I said a week or two ago: the less credence/time I give this POS tape the better I’ll be for it.

2015-06-03_gold_update

And equity futures aren’t the only culprits – just look at what gold has put us through. Not even CrazyIvan is liking this and it eats spasmodic gyrations for breakfast. You have been warned – just stay away for now.

2015-06-03_GBPUSD_update

Cable update – still in this one but I have moved my stop up to the recent spike low. I do like the general concept here and I’m going to hold it. But either this one gets out of the gate now or not.

2015-06-03_AUDJPY_setup

We’ve seen quite a bit of movement on the Forex side however. AUD/JPY at an inflection point – either it’ll start correcting here or it’ll swing that upper BB to the upside. I’m currently long with a stop near 96.55 – below that I’ll flip for a short. 1/2R sizes only – way too much volatility out there right now.


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Cheers,

The Big Furball

Equities have clearly been one big nasty furball over the past few weeks. You remember me writing about this weeks ago already and with the exception of one quick fake out higher we have reversed back into sideways shake out territory. Tough going here but to me it seems like we are either witnessing massive accumulation or distribution over the past few weeks. I’ve touched on that about a month ago and the fact that conditions have remained since then tells me that whatever comes next is going to be significant.

2015-06-02_spoos_briefing

Which means my modus operandi has been one of taking calculated risks near potential inflection points. On the E-Mini we are sloping lower slowly but seem to be jumping higher occasionally to shake out as many participants as possible. And that means I cannot enter here – neither long nor short. Well perhaps long if we were near the recent spike low. But I’ve got a much better entry and I’m posting it for the subs below.

2015-06-02_gold_briefing

Gold is very juicy here – I’m grabbing a long with a stop below the NLSL which also happens to be near that diagonal I drew. Clearly a short position below this is a possibility but tough going – those daily NLSLs  (right panel) won’t give way easily.

2015-06-02_GBPCAD_briefing

GBP/CAD – very nice context developing but so far no resolution. I’m long here with a top below 1.898.

2015-06-02_soybeans_update

Soybeans update – nice entry yesterday and I came very close to being stopped out. Moving my stop up to break/even now. If it wants to get going then now is probably the time.

2015-06-02_Natgas_update

I also grabbed natgas yesterday – so far so good but I’m leaving my stop in place as we haven’t moved anywhere yet. But the longer we remain those ST NLBLs the higher the chance for a stab higher. Volatility should set in here in the near future.

2015-06-02_AUDCHF_update

AUD/CHF is also still nibbling on it. Keeping my stop where I left it.


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Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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